1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oversupply pressure of nickel remains significant, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to impose taxes on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have emerged. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M nickel contracts is expected to be between 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In December, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, it was the rainy season, supply was low, domestic nickel - iron smelters had sufficient inventory, and procurement willingness was weak. In Indonesia, there was no clear news on RKAB approval progress, mines were cautious in shipping, and smelters' procurement demand was relatively weak, resulting in a cold market [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: In the supply side, nickel - iron plant profits were under pressure in December, and production scheduling decreased slightly. In the demand side, stainless - steel prices rose significantly due to macro - sentiment, steel mills' replenishment demand was released, and traders' inventory - building sentiment increased, so nickel - iron demand rebounded slightly. In general, with the rise of stainless - steel prices, the nickel - iron market became more active, and short - term prices may be strong [12]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the coefficient of intermediate products remained high. Supply was high, but the market's tradable volume was insufficient. Demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a cold overall market. The current intermediate product market is more of a situation with prices but no transactions. As production increases, the coefficient price of intermediate products may decline [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In December, nickel rebounded from the bottom. On one hand, Indonesia announced that the nickel ore quota in 2026 would be tightened significantly and then proposed to tax cobalt and iron elements in nickel ore, which reignited market concerns about next year's nickel ore supply and exhausted short - selling power. On the other hand, the macro - environment was positive, and the non - ferrous metal sector was strong, enhancing the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the spot market, overall transactions were still light, and premiums and discounts were stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts [15]. - **Nickel spot premiums and discounts**: The report shows the premiums and discounts of domestic and LME nickel spot [18][19]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the prices of nickel - iron and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [22][23]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: It includes the export volume, port - departure statistics, import volume, port inventory, and prices in the Philippines and Indonesia [27][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Nickel - iron**: It shows the monthly production and production profits in Indonesia and China [33][34][35][36]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production in Indonesia, import volume in China, and prices and transaction coefficients [37][38][39][40][41][42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel production was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [45][46][47]. - **Demand**: It includes the monthly production and social inventory of domestic stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand and real - estate demand in the manufacturing industry [48][49][50][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit - and - loss of domestic refined nickel [52][53]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 1,435 tons to 311,421 tons. The report also shows the domestic and LME regional inventories [54][55][56]. - **Cost**: It presents the production cost by raw materials and the production profit rate by processes [57][58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [60][61][62]. - **Demand**: It includes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [63][64][65]. - **Cost and price**: It presents the production cost and price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, as well as the production profit rate of main raw materials [66][67][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows the supply - demand balance of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including the production, consumption, supply - demand gap, and visible inventory of various nickel products in different regions [70][71].

短期镍价弱势运行 镍周报 2025/12/13 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格整体持稳运行。火法矿方面，尽管冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，但矿商议价能力较强，印尼与菲律宾火法 矿价格均未出现明显下跌，后市或能继续维持坚挺。湿法矿方面，市场仍相对平淡，价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周随着印尼铁厂利润触及低位，市场部分采买需求释放，镍铁价格企稳反弹。但从需求来看，目前下游钢厂整体采购意愿依旧低迷， 预计镍铁价格上行空间有限，后市或持稳运行为主。 ◆ 中间品：本周中间品成交整体一般，但在成本支撑下系数价格维持高位。供给方面，海外硫磺价格维持强势，卖方挺价意愿偏强。但当前外采 MHP经济性较低，且镍盐厂多已完成采购，整体需求转弱，多持观望态度。 ◆ 精 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro atmosphere is positive, and the rising expectation of interest rate cuts may drive the overall strength of non - ferrous metals including nickel. Although the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, in the medium and long term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will strongly support nickel prices. The new - year RKAB approval also potentially benefits nickel prices, limiting the downside space. In the short term, the traditional peak season expectation of stainless steel in "Golden September and Silver October" is hard to be falsified, which may support nickel - iron prices. If the macro - interest - rate - cut narrative strengthens, there may be a phased restocking cycle leading to a stronger nickel - price market. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips in the future. The price range of the main SHFE nickel contract in September is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices are stable. In the Philippines, mines are strongly inclined to hold prices, and ferrous - nickel prices are rising this week, so iron plants can accept the ore prices. In Indonesia, the Halmahera region is still affected by the rainy season, but the weather in Sulawesi Island has improved. Overall, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore is sufficient, and downstream smelters do not face raw - material shortages. In the future, although the short - term ore supply is abundant, ore prices are expected to remain stable under the background of the firm - to - rising nickel - iron prices [11]. - **Nickel - iron**: In terms of supply, the profit losses of domestic iron plants have been repaired but are still in the red, and the supply increase is limited. In the spot market, suppliers' quotes are firm, and low - price resources are scarce. On the demand side, the stainless - steel futures prices have stabilized this week, inventories have slightly decreased, market activity has increased, and with the approaching traditional consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October", stainless - steel plants are expected to increase production in September, supporting the demand for nickel - iron. Overall, nickel - iron prices are expected to continue to be firm - to - rising in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The spot inventory on the supply side is in short supply. Some traders have stopped quoting due to exhausted available goods, while some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers on the demand side still have purchasing needs, supporting the prices. Generally, the market - circulating spot of intermediate products is tight. Meanwhile, as a key auxiliary material for MHP, the price of sulfur has been rising recently, increasing the MHP cost. Driven by cost and supply - demand factors, the prices of intermediate products are expected to continue to strengthen [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate. At the macro level, the September Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the market has high expectations for interest - rate cuts in September and later, making the non - ferrous metals sector perform strongly. In the spot market, the downstream purchasing power is average, inventories have not significantly increased, and the spot premium and discount are fluctuating [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price changes**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 250 yuan/ton to 123,010 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian nickel rose by 420 yuan/ton to 121,340 yuan/ton. The LME closing price decreased by 27 US dollars to 15,236 US dollars, and the SHFE closing price dropped by 140 yuan to 120,850 yuan. The spot price ratio increased by 0.09 to 8.06, and the import profit - loss improved from - 6.20% to - 4.80%. The Russian - nickel premium remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel premium decreased by 3.8 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Position and inventory changes**: The LME position decreased by 0.68 million lots to 32.91 million lots, and the SHFE position increased by 0.31 million lots to 20.69 million lots. The LME inventory increased by 0.56 million tons to 21.53 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 2.64 million tons, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 0.51 million tons, the nickel - plate spot inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons to 3.51 million tons, and the nickel - bean spot inventory remained unchanged at 0.26 million tons [15]. - **Other price information**: In August, nickel - iron prices rebounded from the bottom. On September 4, the domestic high - nickel pig - iron ex - factory price was 938 - 953 yuan/nickel point, with the average price up 30 yuan/nickel point from the same period last month. In August, nickel - sulfate prices were firm - to - rising. On September 4, the domestic nickel - sulfate spot price was 27,770 - 27,970 yuan/ton, with the average price up 490 yuan/ton from the same period last month [24]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to increase. As of September 5, the nickel - ore port inventory was 13.0823 million tons, a 3.8% increase from the same period last week. Nickel - ore prices were stable. On September 4, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was 52.2 US dollars/wet ton, basically unchanged from the same period last month; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade ore was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.3 US dollars/wet ton from last month; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine - produced nickel ore was 57 US dollars/wet ton, the same as last week [31][34]. - **Nickel - iron**: In July, Indonesia's MHP production was 40,000 nickel tons, and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons, both basically unchanged from the previous month [41]. - **Intermediate products**: As of August 29, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,097 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.87, up 0.05 from last month; the high - grade nickel matte was 13,391 US dollars/metal ton, and the coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.9, up 0.05 from last month [46]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, the national refined - nickel production reached 36,000 tons, remaining at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but it is related to stainless - steel production, manufacturing, and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific import - export data was provided, but the import - profit - loss situation was presented in the graph [57]. - **Inventory**: In August, the global refined - nickel inventory slightly increased. According to Mysteel data, on September 4, the domestic + LME visible inventory was 247,000 tons, a slight increase of 840 tons from the same period last month [60]. - **Cost**: No specific cost data was provided, but the production - cost and profit - rate graphs of different raw materials and processes were presented [62]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No specific supply - change data was provided, but the production and net - import graphs were presented [67]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - change data was provided, but the demand is related to ternary power - battery loading and ternary precursor production [70]. - **Cost and price**: No specific cost - and - price data was provided, but the cost, price, and profit - rate graphs of different processes were presented [72]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Historical data**: In 2023, the total demand was 3.23 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3129 million nickel tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 82,900 nickel tons. In 2024, the total demand was 3.37 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.3972 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 27,200 nickel tons [77]. - **Forecast data**: In 2025, it is expected that the total demand will be 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply will be 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [77].