12 月初行业协同会议决定观察到今年 2 月份，这三个月内维持 70%的限产水 平，根据情况可能调整至 75%或 80%。下游需求增长良好，从去年的数据看， 下游需求增长 10%至 20%。公司通过招商引资吸引下游企业入驻厂区周边， 实现管道直接输送，仅去年 11 月销量增长近 30%。 目前价格稳定在成本线以 上，但仍处于保本微利状态。如果要实现行业健康发展，需要一定利润，因此 预计价格可能上涨 10%左右，即达到 15,000-16,000 元/吨区间。这将带来接 近 10%的利润水平，有助于研发投入和工艺改进，从而促进行业良性循环。目 前每 1,000 元的价格波动对公司而言代表着两到三个亿的利润波动。本周元旦 兴发集团 20260107 摘要 兴发集团计划通过乔沟矿业采矿权证的获取和白水河磷矿股权收购，提 升磷矿石产能至 1,000 万吨，以保障未来磷资源供应，预计乔沟矿业 2026 年二季度开始建设，为公司磷化工产业链提供坚实基础。 特化板块以磷酸盐为核心，通过高附加值产品如"新发 A"和乙硫醇等， 实现盈利增长，预计 2026 年特化板块将继续推出 BCD 系列磷化剂和电 池级五硫化二磷等新产品， ...

来源：央视新闻客户端 当前正值岁末年初企业生产经营旺季，安全风险处于高位，打击遏制非法生产需常抓不懈。为进一步推 动各地区、有关部门、企业单位和社会公众深刻认识化工非法生产的严重危害性和"打非"工作的严峻复 杂性，举一反三提升社会安全意识，保持严查严治高压态势，切实保护人民群众生命安全，应急管理部 继今年5月、9月分别公布一批化工非法生产典型案例后，近日公布第三批典型案例。 案例 1 2025年11月9日，辽宁省辽阳市辽阳县一化工非法生产窝点发生火灾，造成4人受伤。调查发现，该窝点 存在未办理危险化学品建设项目安全审查、未依法取得危险化学品安全生产许可等情况，在非法生产乙 硫醇过程中，乙硫醇储罐开裂泄漏起火，并引发氯乙烷原料等着火燃烧 。该窝点被依法予以取缔。2025 年11月10日，属地公安机关依法对该窝点投资人叶某某，供货人刘某某，生产工人张某某、冯某某、张 某，管理人员牛某某、谭某某等7人进行立案侦查。 2025年7月23日，河南省新乡市某石油化工贸易有限公司发生爆炸，造成3人死亡、2人受伤。经群众举 报并调查发现，新乡市获嘉县某化工有限公司租赁新乡市某染色纺织有限公司闲置厂房，后又非法转租 厂房、出租 ...

兴发集团 20251212 摘要 兴发集团 2025 年前三季度营收 237.81 亿元，同比增长 7.8%；归母净 利润 11.18 亿元，同比略增。第三季度营收和归母净利润环比分别增长 接近 24%和 42%，显示增长势头。 矿石采选业务毛利率高达 75%，贡献近一半利润，计划到"十五五"末 产能提升至 1,300 万吨。特种化学品和农药业务收入均约 40 亿元，利 润贡献显著。新能源材料板块加速扭亏，预计 2026 年全年盈利。 有机硅行业协同提价，草甘膦价格波动大但预期明年旺季补库存将带动 上涨，这两个周期性产品预计明年对公司业绩产生积极影响。肥料业务 受出口配额影响承压，但公司预计明年情况不会更差。 磷肥市场座谈会提出保供稳价措施，短期内可能抑制硫磺价格，但长期 看，受国际因素影响，硫磺价格仍可能保持高位。预计 2026 年磷肥出 口时间窗口将后移，国家加强国内供应保障。 磷酸铁产能持续扩张，现有 10 万吨产能已满负荷，明年 1 月和 7 月将 分别新增 5 万吨和 10 万吨产能。与比亚迪签订每年 8 万吨磷酸铁锂代 工协议，保障稳定收益。 麻坪磷矿已投产，预计 2026 年产能达 60%-80 ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter, driven by improved market conditions for glyphosate [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 23.781 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [4][5] - The third quarter saw revenue of 9.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.9%, with a net profit of 0.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.1% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit showed steady growth, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q3, primarily due to the optimized supply-demand dynamics of glyphosate and the profit contribution from phosphate fertilizer exports [5] - Glyphosate market prices have risen, with current average prices at 26,546 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 14% and 17% compared to Q1 2025 [5] Industry Outlook - The phosphate industry remains robust, with the company enhancing its mining integration and exploration efforts, increasing phosphate resource reserves to 580 million tons [6] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its integrated layout in the phosphate chemical industry [6] New Materials Business - The company has successfully turned around its new energy products to profitability and is expanding its special chemicals and silicone businesses, which are crucial for high-quality development [7] - New projects in the organic silicon sector are expected to become new profit growth points, with significant investments planned for industrial silicon production [8] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.825 billion, 2.078 billion, and 2.366 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 13 times [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent research conducted by QuanGuo Fund on Xingfa Group highlights significant developments in the glyphosate market, fertilizer exports, phosphate mining capacity, specialty chemicals, and new energy business performance. Glyphosate Market - The glyphosate market has seen a notable price increase of over 2,000 yuan/ton compared to Q1, driven by low industry inventory, seasonal export demand to South America, and concerns over supply stability due to rumors surrounding Monsanto's bankruptcy. The price is expected to continue rising due to strong demand and low inventory pressure among major domestic enterprises [1][2]. Fertilizer Export - In Q2, the company exported over 70,000 tons of fertilizers and is actively seeking a second phase of export quotas while ensuring stable domestic supply and pricing for phosphate fertilizers [2]. Phosphate Mining Capacity - The company currently has an annual phosphate ore mining capacity of 5.85 million tons, with plans to double this capacity within five years through various projects, including a subsidiary with proven reserves of 315 million tons and ongoing mining operations [3]. Specialty Chemicals - The specialty chemicals business has shown stable performance, with new products such as organic silicon leather and phosphonates achieving good market results. Sales volumes have increased, and better profitability is anticipated in the future [4]. New Energy Business - The new energy segment has established projects for lithium iron phosphate and lithium dihydrogen phosphate, with the lithium iron phosphate product achieving full production and sales since March. The company is also advancing research on next-generation products to enhance market competitiveness [5][6]. DMC Production and Profit Impact - The actual production capacity of DMC is approximately 300,000 tons/year. A price increase of 1,000 yuan/ton in organic silicon is expected to boost profits by around 300 million yuan annually, although this is subject to various market factors [6]. Shareholder Information - As of July 18, the total number of shareholders for the company is 59,812 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Emergency Management emphasizes the severe dangers of illegal chemical production and the complexity of enforcement efforts, aiming to enhance public safety awareness and maintain a strict crackdown on illegal activities [1] Group 1: Case Summaries - Case 1: An explosion at a biotechnology company in Zhoukou, Henan, on March 20, 2025, resulted in 6 deaths and 3 injuries due to illegal production practices. The company lacked safety conditions and was shut down [2] - Case 2: An explosion at a biotechnology company in Taizhou, Jiangsu, on March 11, 2025, led to 8 deaths and 4 injuries. The company was conducting illegal experiments without proper safety measures [3] - Case 3: A company in Hebei was found to be illegally producing hazardous chemicals after a surprise inspection on March 24, 2025. The company had previously been involved in a major explosion incident [4] - Case 4: A suspected illegal chemical production site was discovered in Jining, Shandong, on November 17, 2024. The operation was concealed under a livestock farm, and the site was subsequently shut down [5]