【财经日历】 日本央行公布10月货币政策会议纪要 第二十三届中国食品安全大会暨2025全国食品工业科技进步大会(北京，12/24-12/28) 交易提示：港股、美股交易半日 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48442.41 | 79.73 | 0.16% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23561.84c 133.01 | | 0.57% | | 标普500 | 6909.79 | 31.30 | 0.46% | 当地时间周二，美国股市收高，标普500指数创新高。截至收盘，道指涨0.16%，标普500指数涨 0.46%，纳指涨0.57%。 大型科技股整体走强，英伟达上涨3.01%，为标普500指数提供最大支撑；博通上涨2.30%，亚马逊上涨 1.62%，谷歌A股上涨1.48%，谷歌C股上涨1.40%，苹果上涨0.51%，微软上涨0.40%，Meta上涨0.52%。 特斯拉则小幅下跌0.65%，超威半导体基本持平。 人工智能相关股票延续反弹，扭转了上周因估值偏高及资本开支压力引发的回调。市场人士表示，当前 资金更青睐具备盈利确定 ...

2025.11. 18 本文字数：2322，阅读时长大约4分钟 截至第一财经记者发稿时，10月非农就业数据和消费者价格指数（CPI）的发布时间尚未确认。原定 于11月13日发布的10月CPI数据因数据收集问题受阻。与此同时，美国总统特朗普的高级经济顾问 之一哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）表示，原定于11月7日发布的10月非农仍会发布，但报告中将不包含 失业率数据。 美联储官员的最新表态让经济数据的表现更加微妙。过去两周，多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，呼吁 暂停降息，对物价的担忧重新盖过了就业市场。例如，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德上周表示，通胀仍居 高不下，警告额外的降息可能会加剧物价压力，但劳动力市场基本处于平衡状态。 本周美联储将发布最新会议纪要，联邦公开市场委员会FOMC内部讨论细节无疑会成为焦点。货币 市场定价显示，交易员预计美联储12月降息25个基点的概率在50%左右摇摆不定。 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本周美股动荡开局，投资者对人工智能相关交易的疑虑持续，与此同时，因美国史上最长政府停摆而 延迟发布的大批经济数据将逐步亮相，随着美联储12月会议的临近，指标表现对货币政策走向影响 的潜在扰动也在引发 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high overall market risk, particularly during a de-risking period, with a focus on concentrated positions in data center stocks and a pessimistic sentiment towards consumer sectors [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance reflects internal divisions regarding the level of policy accommodation, contributing to market concerns about economic prospects despite a generally loose financial environment [2][3]. - Over two-thirds of companies reported earnings exceeding expectations by more than one standard deviation, yet their single-day performance lagged behind the S&P index, indicating high client positioning levels and a preference for AI-related stocks while shorting consumer-related stocks [1][3]. - The Supreme Court's deliberation on the AEBA tariff case could lead to a significant reduction in effective tariff rates, currently around 15%, if tariffs are deemed invalid, although the government may seek alternative methods to reimplement tariffs [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Employment market data, including Challenger data, reveals concerns about the labor market, exacerbating fears about the economic outlook [1][2]. - The stock market's recent weakness is attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish position and worries over soft economic data, with a potential recovery contingent on the Fed acknowledging these data and taking stabilizing measures [2][11]. Market Sentiment - Despite a tightening of institutional investor positions, retail investors remain optimistic, with a potential trigger for CTA stop-loss levels [3]. - The current environment shows a significant interest in AI stocks while consumer stocks face downward pressure, leading to substantial corrections in popular retail and semiconductor stocks [3][5]. Tariff Implications - If the Supreme Court rules against the government regarding tariffs, the effective tariff rate could decrease by up to 7.5 percentage points, with the government likely to explore alternative measures for tariff implementation [4][6][7]. - The government may utilize temporary tariffs under Section 122 or initiate investigations under Section 301, which could prolong the process of implementing new tariffs [7][8]. Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown, now lasting approximately 37 days, is tied to a standoff over Senate filibuster rules, with pressure mounting to resolve funding issues as critical deadlines approach [9][10]. - A resolution to the government shutdown is anticipated around mid-November, which could significantly impact consumer sentiment and market dynamics [10].