Group 1 - The core event is the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife by the U.S. military, marking a shift from economic sanctions to direct regime change efforts, escalating tensions significantly [2][10] - On the first trading day after the New Year holiday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by nearly 1%, while the domestic SC main contract dropped close to 3.4% [2][10] - In contrast, asphalt futures experienced a significant jump, with the main contract rising over 3200 yuan/ton, peaking at a 6.3% increase before closing with a nearly 4% gain [2][10] Group 2 - The domestic futures market showed a divergence between BU and SC, with previous indications suggesting that the U.S.-Venezuela conflict would have limited impact on oil price premiums, failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices [3][11] - Historical data indicates that the sustained impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices depends on whether they cause large-scale, long-term supply disruptions [3][11] - According to EIA data, Venezuela's oil production is projected to be between 970,000 and 1,040,000 barrels per day by 2025, accounting for only 0.94% to 0.96% of global supply, meaning that even a supply disruption would not significantly drive oil prices higher [3][11] Group 3 - Asphalt emerged as the strongest performer among oil futures due to the U.S. military action on January 3, which severely impacted Venezuelan oil exports and heightened concerns over asphalt raw material supply shortages [5][13] - Venezuela's heavy crude oil has a high asphalt yield of 60% and is favored by Chinese independent refineries due to its low price [5][13] - In 2025, Chinese independent refineries are expected to import approximately 393,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil, with imports typically accounting for 50% to 70% of Venezuela's export volume [5][13]

以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者高明宇，李祖智 文 | 高明宇 李祖智 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 6月11日以来围绕伊以冲突的中东地缘风险迅速升级，首先是特朗普在采访中表示对伊朗停止铀浓缩活动的信心减弱，6月12日夜间以色列随即先 发制人的对伊朗展开空袭，截至今日双方的无人机及导弹袭击持续至第5天，以色列对伊朗的打击目标也从最初的军事设施及核设施扩大至能源基 础设施。尽管目前的军事冲突影响局限在天然气田、油库等伊以两国的国内能源供应链，尚未对伊朗及周边国家的油气出口产生明显冲击，但本轮 伊以冲突有向伊朗"零铀浓缩"或更替政权的两极方向演绎的倾向，在明确的地缘缓和信号出现前，市场仍将对油气市场的极端冲击情景进行评估 及定价。 原油 伊朗是全球第三大石油储量国、第二大天然气储量国，2025年以来伊朗原油月均产量331.4万桶/天、月均出口量163.2万桶/天，大约分 别在全球占比3.7%、3.8%，疫情后出口流向以中国为主。 未来伊以冲突若殃及伊朗上游油田、出口港口及炼厂，将对其原油及成品油出口产生直接影响，我们特此对伊朗的能源基础设施进行梳 理。 伊朗86%的原油储量 ...