1月3日，美国军方逮捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，这标志着美方行动由经济制裁转向直接推动政 权更迭，紧张局势达到前所未有的程度。元旦假期后的首个交易日，WTI与Brent原油期货价格并未因 地缘政治风险升级而上涨，反而下跌近1%，内盘SC主力合约跌幅更是接近3.4%。与之形成对比的是， 沥青期货呈现大幅跳空高开、高位震荡走势，主力合约一度涨超3200元/吨，涨幅最高达6.3%，随后虽 有所回落，收盘仍保持近4%的涨幅。 今日国内期货BU与SC走出"此起彼伏"的背离行情。我们此前提示，美国与委内瑞拉冲突对原油的地缘 溢价提振有限，难以扭转油价中枢下行趋势。从历史上看，地缘冲突对油价的持续影响力取决于是否造 成大规模、长期的实质性供应中断。根据EIA数据，2025年委内瑞拉石油产量约在97–104万桶/日之间， 仅占全球供应的0.94%–0.96%，即便供应中断也难以推动油价长期上扬。加之当前原油市场处于供应过 剩的累库阶段，从EIA、IEA、OPEC三大机构对平衡表的预估来看，2026年第一季度全球原油市场仍面 临较大累库压力。因此，美委局势难以在基本面上为油价提供持续支撑。反而值得注意的是，美国此次 行动目 ...

| 1914 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | œ | | | | | | | | . 1 9 | | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | | . . D | | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | | 17 | | | | | | | | | 1 2 1 | 1 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ★☆★ | 能源日报 2026年01月05日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 假期后首日,外盘原油期货未因美委冲突升级而上涨,内盘SC跌超3%。我们此前提示冲突带来的地缘溢价有 限，难改油价中枢下行趋势。历史表明，地缘冲突对油价的持续影响取决于是否引发大规模、长期的实质性供 应中断。EIA数据显示，2025 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ increased production during the meeting on September 7 and announced an adjustment to the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting from October 2025, with a reduction of 137,000 barrels per day [1][2] - There is a significant oversupply expectation in the crude oil market this year, with OPEC+ aiming to capture more market share [2] - The upcoming hurricane season and high operational activity may increase the likelihood of risk events that could support oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with further rate cuts anticipated, indicating a shift towards domestic easing policies [3] - The industry concentration is expected to increase, benefiting leading companies such as New Fengming (603225) and Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) in the polyester filament sector [3] - In the context of increasing profit pressure, domestic low-cost ethylene leaders like Baofeng Energy (600989) and Satellite Chemical (002648) are expected to benefit from the reduction of overseas refining and ethylene capacity [3]