讽刺的是，美国对华芯片战的策略，看似雷霆万钧，实则漏洞百出。一方面，华盛顿不遗余力地施压荷兰，企图阻止ASML公司向中国出口高端光刻机，意 图掐断中国发展先进制程芯片的咽喉；另一方面，美国自身却在低端芯片供应链上，已然对中国形成了深度依赖。 一个极具讽刺意味的案例便是，2025年3月，时任美国总统特朗普曾扬言要对华征收高达45%的关税，这一举动直接导致美股市场遭遇"黑色星期一"，单日 市值蒸发超过万亿美元。究其根本原因，在于美国超过三分之二的含芯片产品，包括大量的国防设备，都高度依赖中国提供中低端芯片。甚至，在美国亚利 桑那州台积电工厂的设备调试过程中，也需要依赖中国工程师的签证才能得以顺利进行。 中国低端芯片之所以能够拥有如此强大的竞争力，其核心在于对成本的极致把控。美国半导体行业协会的数据显示，中国晶圆厂的生产成本，较美国同行低 37.0%。然而，这种价格优势并非以牺牲质量为代价。在新冠疫情肆虐期间，全球汽车芯片供应陷入严重短缺的困境，正是中国芯片企业迅速填补了这一缺 口，有力地保障了德国大众和法国标致等汽车制造商的生产线免于瘫痪。日本经济产业省在2025年的报告中也坦承，中国通过一种"从1到100"的普 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that recent economic data has led to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by easing geopolitical risks and mixed performance across major asset classes. The US CPI showed moderate performance, which initially raised rate cut expectations, but a subsequent rebound in PPI and stable retail data caused these expectations to retract. The MSCI global index rose by 1.22%, with most national markets experiencing gains, while US stock indices showed varied performance with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2][17][27]. Economic Data Summary - The US July CPI remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but falling short of the expected 2.8%. Core CPI increased to 3.1%, above the prior 2.9% and the forecast of 3.0%. The report highlights that energy prices significantly declined, impacting overall CPI, while core goods showed slower growth, indicating a lag in tariff transmission [3][12]. - The July PPI saw a substantial increase from 2.3% to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month change also rose from 0% to 0.9%, driven primarily by a 2.0% increase in trade services, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [3][12]. - Retail sales in July experienced a slight month-on-month decline of 0.5%, although the previous value was revised upward from 0.6% to 0.9%. This indicates a resilient consumer sector, despite some categories like grocery and restaurant sales showing significant declines [12][11]. Policy Developments - The report notes that the US and China have agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs for an additional 90 days until November 10. This decision follows a joint statement from the US and China regarding trade discussions [13]. - Progress was reported in the US-Russia summit, although no formal agreements were reached regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The meeting was characterized by both sides acknowledging advancements in discussions [13]. - The report also mentions that President Trump has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, with new tariffs set to take effect on August 18, impacting 407 product codes [13]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the US stock market has reached new highs before experiencing a slight pullback. The initial rise was attributed to favorable CPI data, which increased rate cut expectations, but subsequent PPI and retail sales data tempered these expectations [27][28]. - The report indicates that the healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors have shown strong performance, particularly in Chinese pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks [28]. Asset Class Performance - The MSCI global stock index increased by 1.22%, with notable gains in Japan, Vietnam, and China. The report also details the performance of various asset classes, noting a decline in the dollar index by 0.43% to 97.8, and a drop in COMEX gold and ICE Brent oil prices by 2.21% and 0.29% respectively [17][22].