讽刺的是，美国对华芯片战的策略，看似雷霆万钧，实则漏洞百出。一方面，华盛顿不遗余力地施压荷兰，企图阻止ASML公司向中国出口高端光刻机，意 图掐断中国发展先进制程芯片的咽喉；另一方面，美国自身却在低端芯片供应链上，已然对中国形成了深度依赖。 一个极具讽刺意味的案例便是，2025年3月，时任美国总统特朗普曾扬言要对华征收高达45%的关税，这一举动直接导致美股市场遭遇"黑色星期一"，单日 市值蒸发超过万亿美元。究其根本原因，在于美国超过三分之二的含芯片产品，包括大量的国防设备，都高度依赖中国提供中低端芯片。甚至，在美国亚利 桑那州台积电工厂的设备调试过程中，也需要依赖中国工程师的签证才能得以顺利进行。 中国低端芯片之所以能够拥有如此强大的竞争力，其核心在于对成本的极致把控。美国半导体行业协会的数据显示，中国晶圆厂的生产成本，较美国同行低 37.0%。然而，这种价格优势并非以牺牲质量为代价。在新冠疫情肆虐期间，全球汽车芯片供应陷入严重短缺的困境，正是中国芯片企业迅速填补了这一缺 口，有力地保障了德国大众和法国标致等汽车制造商的生产线免于瘫痪。日本经济产业省在2025年的报告中也坦承，中国通过一种"从1到100"的普 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML warns that it may not achieve growth by 2026 due to the impact of US tariff policies [1] Company Summary - ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink, stated that the company is still striving for growth by 2026 but cannot guarantee it at this time [1] - The company is increasingly affected by potential US trade restrictions, similar to the entire semiconductor industry [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties have intensified, particularly after April, leading to price increases for ASML's machines and the chips they produce [1] - ASML focuses on high-end lithography machine production and is a global leader in semiconductor equipment maintenance and refurbishment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shortage of magnets is having a "very, very serious" impact on European companies, as stated by the EU Ambassador to China, Toledo [1] Group 1: Impact of Export Controls - Following the high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China, China retaliated with export controls on key minerals and rare earth magnets, leading to a significant decline in exports and disruptions in global supply chains, particularly affecting Europe [3] - Despite China's promise to expedite approval processes for exports, the shortage of rare earth materials continues to persist in Europe [3] - Toledo highlighted that since 2017, China's economy has grown by 40%, while EU exports to China have decreased by 30%, indicating a troubling trade relationship [3] Group 2: EU's Response and Concerns - The EU is seeking a "fair competitive environment" and is concerned about the implications of China's export controls on its industries [3] - The European Commission President and the European Council President plan to visit China next month to address the rare earth magnet export issues [3] - The EU's trade and economic relationship with China is described as "unclear," reflecting the ongoing tensions and challenges [3] Group 3: China's Position and Measures - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that the export control measures are in line with international practices and are non-discriminatory [5] - Recent reports indicate that China is requiring rare earth companies to provide detailed information about their technical experts to prevent the leakage of commercial secrets [7] - The establishment of an export approval system and a personnel record system for rare earths is aimed at safeguarding national security and controlling strategic resources [7]

Core Insights - ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet stated that despite China's efforts to catch up technologically, U.S. measures to suppress China will only motivate them to succeed more [1] - ASML is the only manufacturer of high-end lithography machines globally, with a product cost of up to $400 million and a record revenue of €28.3 billion last year [1] - ASML's sales to China are expected to drop from nearly 50% of its annual revenue to about 25% due to trade restrictions [1] Company Overview - ASML's projected sales could reach between €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030 [1] - The company is seen as a geopolitical pawn, with some products restricted from export to certain countries [1] - The CEO emphasized the importance of innovation over merely suppressing competitors like China [1] Industry Context - The semiconductor supply chain is described as global and interconnected, with U.S. export bans potentially slowing technological development and increasing costs for all countries [1] - The impact of tariffs from the Trump administration has created additional challenges and uncertainty, hindering U.S. efforts to build chip factories [2] - The CEO highlighted that tariffs lead to increased costs, making domestic chip production less viable [2]