来源：鹏友来开会 2026年，中国股市仍处于调整结构、优化生态的历史进程中，彻底解决主要矛盾还需要一定时间；但推 动资产质量提升、市场信誉提升、公平竞争体系提升的共识也显著增强，公众更有信心增持中国资产。 一大批优质公司、一大批优质投资机构将以崭新面貌亮相。 预言四，半导体行情波澜壮阔。 2026年是我国的"AI+元年"，半导体产业在资本投入、产业扩张、技术突破等方面都将呈现新的气象。 美国对中国半导体企业继续采取压制和拉拢两手政策，跨国半导体人才回流中国可望加速。我国半导体 产业投资有望超过5000亿元甚至更高。 预言一，上证综指将突破5200点。 随着沪深股市推进结构性调整，长线资金入驻速率更加稳定，股指的稳定性也将增强。中央明确，2026 年将统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，有助于引导社会预期，降低跪美惧美心态对股市的影响。大盘 优质股票的价值将被挖掘，促使股指稳定上升。 目前上证综指市盈率仅17倍左右，具有进一步上涨的空间。随着资产质量提高和更多长线资金涌入，上 证综指将持续上涨，有望突破5200点一线。 预言二，量化交易将显著受限。 各方对量化交易的认识趋于统一，有望出台进一步限制量化交易范围的监管 ...

一座新的万亿消费城市正在诞生。 "到2027年，全市社会消费品零售总额超1.07万亿元。" 近日公布的《武汉市创建国际消费中心城市三年行动方案（2025—2027年）》中，明确了武汉步入万亿消费城市的时间点。 不过，这个数字倒是让不少人深吸了一口气。 7931.87亿元——这是武汉2024年交出的消费成绩单。这意味着，三年时间，增长34%，这座城市的社零额每年要以超过10%的速度奔跑（名义增速）。 放眼全国，目前社零额破万亿的城市不过七座（上海、重庆、北京、广州、深圳、成都和苏州）。如今，武汉决心要加入这场"万亿消费俱乐部"的争夺 战。 数字背后，藏着武汉成为国际消费枢纽的野心。 一个"跳起来才够得着"的目标 三年时间，武汉的社零额从近8000亿元跃升到超1万亿元，算下来，三年的年均增速达到10.5%。 10.5%，是算出来的名义增速，不考虑价格因素。考虑到通胀水平，假设这三年CPI年均涨幅为2%，那社零额实际增速也需要到8%以上。 参考一下其他城市的冲刺历程： 上海市社零额从8000亿元到1万亿元用了2年，那是在2014、2015年； 北京用了3年，2013、2014、2015年； 重庆用了3年，2018、 ...

数据显示，赛事流量正持续转化为经济增量。比如，今年上半年，河北、浙江、福建等7地一共监测了 511场重点赛事活动，带动体育及相关消费超160亿元，场均带动超3000万元，展现出强大的消费拉动能 力。 今年以来，"赛事+消费"在全国多地开花，成为拉动内需、促进消费升级的新引擎，为中国经济注入澎 湃动能。 今年9月份，国务院办公厅发布的《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展的意见》提 出"出台赛事经济发展专项政策""开展促进体育消费和赛事经济试点"等举措。 比如，2025年重庆城市足球超级联赛，也就是"渝超"联赛，自9月13日开赛以来一直保持热度。12月6 日，九龙坡鑫源熊猫队与沙坪坝队的焦点战在重庆奥体中心上演，现场观赛球迷人数超4万人，刷新该 赛事开赛以来的单场最高观赛人数纪录。在赛场外，配套的惠民集市同步开放，更是吸引大批球迷驻足 打卡。 中央财经大学副教授刘春生对《证券日报》记者表示，"赛事+消费"能成为提振消费的新引擎，核心在 于赛事串联起吃、住、行、游、购、娱全链条消费，构建多元消费生态。同时，融入地域文化的赛事还 能激发情感共鸣，叠加政策支持与完善的体育基建，让"赛事+消费"场景更丰富， ...

Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand is essential for promoting high-quality economic development, with leisure consumption being a key component of this strategy [1][2] - The Chinese government has prioritized the recovery and expansion of leisure consumption through various measures, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] Leisure Consumption Market Recovery - Leisure consumption, particularly in tourism and sports, has shown a continuous recovery and growth trend, becoming an indispensable force in driving domestic demand [2] - Domestic tourism in China is projected to reach 5.615 billion trips and a total consumption scale of 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery compared to 2022 [2] - The average spending per trip has increased to 1,024.04 yuan, with a notable rise in both the number of trips and total consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [2] Impact on Related Industries - The recovery and expansion of leisure consumption positively impact various related industries, including transportation, accommodation, dining, shopping, and entertainment [3] - Leisure consumption has transitioned from being viewed as a luxury to becoming a necessity in the consumption structure of Chinese residents, making it a crucial part of the domestic demand strategy [3] Constraints on Leisure Consumption - Despite the positive recovery, several factors hinder the further expansion and quality improvement of leisure consumption, including weak consumer confidence and income growth [4][5] - The average annual increase in urban employment from 2022 to 2023 was only 1.3 million, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, affecting consumer spending [4] - The decline in asset values since 2021 has led to a "negative wealth effect," further suppressing consumer spending [4] Supply-Side Challenges - The leisure consumption market faces structural supply-side issues, including insufficient high-quality offerings and low levels of innovation [5][6] - There is a significant gap between consumer demands for personalized and high-quality experiences and the current market supply, which often consists of generic products [5][6] Consumer Experience and Trust Issues - The leisure consumption environment is marred by market irregularities, such as price gouging and misleading promotions, which undermine consumer trust [7] - Poor infrastructure and service quality in popular tourist destinations further detract from the overall consumer experience [7] Recommendations for Enhancing Leisure Consumption - Strategies to enhance consumer capacity and expectations include improving employment levels and income distribution through tax policies and social security systems [8] - Encouraging innovation in leisure products and services to meet diverse consumer needs is essential for market growth [9] - Optimizing the consumer environment by addressing market order and enhancing infrastructure will help build consumer trust [11] - Implementing flexible vacation arrangements can increase leisure time for residents, thereby boosting leisure consumption [12]