Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | | | | | 周一，玉米增仓下行，加权合约持仓增加，期价呈现偏弱表现。现货市场方面， 期价下跌，现货成交转弱。周末东北玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，市场购销活跃度稍 | | | | 显一般，对行情有一定的不利影响，目前深加工以及下游饲料企业采购积极性偏 | | | | 淡。 周末华北地区玉米价格窄幅下调。山东深加工企业玉米价格到达 2500 元/ | | | | 吨左右，贸易商出货积极性再次增加，企业价格窄幅下调。基层余粮不多，有粮 | | | | 的贸易商继续维持逢高出货的思路。 周末销区市场玉米价格稳中偏弱运行。下 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 游饲料厂玉米刚需补库为主，市场维持观望心态，购销并不活跃，企业头寸时间 | | | | 较长，多数等待新粮上市。技术上，玉米 9 月跌破 2300 元整数关口，期价短期 | | | | 在 2280 支撑位徘徊。随着新粮上市预期增强，9 月持仓向 11 月和 1 月合约转移， | | | | 1 月期价在丰产压力之下，价格延续偏弱 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the main corn contract reduced positions and adjusted. The funds of the September contract shifted to the January contract. The bearish factor of good weather during the growth period influenced market sentiment, and the corn futures price showed a weak performance. Northeast corn prices remained stable, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market was relatively limited. In the Northeast production area, there was a small amount of supply, and the downstream trading activity was poor. In North China, corn prices generally showed a stable - to - strong trend. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton this week, but was suppressed by the technical resistance level and then declined again. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 2300 yuan/ton support for the September contract, and a medium - term downward trend is expected [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed at the lowest level since April due to favorable crop weather in the US for a bumper harvest and sufficient global supply. Domestic protein meal prices declined as domestic commodities generally fell and funds withdrew from the market. The Sino - US negotiation maintained the suspension of the 24% tariff, but did not mention soybean purchases, which led to concerns about the long - term supply of soybean meal. Strategically, soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly, and investors can participate in the 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell, ending a two - day upward trend. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.7% - 9.6% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, leading to an increase in export tariffs. Domestically, the market sentiment was weak, and the futures prices of oils declined. The decline in the outer market led to a decrease in import costs, which also pressured the prices. The inventory of palm oil was limited, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased. The oils market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, which was conducive to restoring import profits. Strategically, short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, influenced by surrounding commodities, the egg futures price oscillated and closed down. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The short - term fundamental situation was still bearish, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. In the future, as the egg market enters the peak season, demand will have a positive impact on egg prices. However, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than that of last year [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract 2509 oscillated during the session and finally closed flat. The spot price of pigs increased slightly. As pig prices continued to adjust, the mentality of farmers to support prices became stronger, and the slaughter volume decreased. The policy provided support for pig prices, so a short - term oscillating trend is expected. Attention should be paid to whether the short - term rebound in spot prices can continue and the impact of market sentiment changes on the futures market after the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Market Information - Argentina reduced the export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [4]. - As of July 23, the national average ex - factory price of pigs was 14.78 yuan/kg, a 1.20% decrease from July 16, and the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, a 1.12% decrease from July 16 [4]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that Indian vegetable oil importers were increasing palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season as global prices declined [4]. - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 was 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to suspend the designated rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of Sichuan Grain and Oil Wholesale Center Direct - affiliated Reserve Depot Co., Ltd. and Central Reserve Grain Sichuan Xinjin Direct - affiliated Depot Co., Ltd., and resume the rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of China Grain Reserves (Hefei) Reserve Co., Ltd. It also added Chengdu Grain Group Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery warehouse and COFCO Oils (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery factory warehouse [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][9][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][15][19][25][27]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times Best Futures Analyst Awards for many years [29]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant awards for many years [29]. - Kong Hailan, a master of economics, is currently a researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to production growth and export decline, with potential support at 4100 ringgit and 8800 yuan domestically [1]. - Soybean oil may experience narrow - range oscillations in the short - term, and the basis may be under short - term pressure but supported in the long - term [1]. Sugar - The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but overall, a bearish view is maintained considering the production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally more balanced in supply and demand, and a bearish view is held after a potential rebound [3][4]. Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may remain high in a narrow range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, as demand is increasing but supply is sufficient and high - temperature weather may limit price increases [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybeans' spot price increased slightly, futures price decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. Palm oil's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis increased significantly. Rapeseed oil's spot and futures prices decreased [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil is affected by fundamental factors, and domestic port inventories are increasing. For soybean oil, weather impacts are rising as August approaches, and domestic basis differences vary between July and August [1]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On July 22, domestic sugar futures prices decreased slightly, ICE raw sugar decreased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Imported sugar prices decreased, and the difference between imported and domestic sugar prices decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and Guangxi's sugar production, sales, and sales rates increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall. The domestic market is expected to be more balanced in supply and demand [3][4]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, cotton futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory, industrial inventory, and imports decreased, while cotton outbound shipments increased. Some downstream indicators such as yarn and fabric inventory days increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, but the cotton price increase has driven up yarn prices. The supply side has some pressure from the sale of old cotton, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, egg futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis increased significantly [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg - laying chick prices decreased slightly, culled chicken prices increased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has affected production. Demand has increased, and prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [9]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, corn futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. Corn starch futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The auction on July 22 had a 27% success rate. The supply is tightening due to reduced sales and weather impacts, and demand is supported by the breeding industry [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal decreased while that of rapeseed meal increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: US soybeans are at the bottom, and Brazilian prices are high. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, pig futures prices increased slightly, and the 9 - 11 spread decreased. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Breeding profits are low, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19].

Group 1: Oils and Fats Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Malaysian palm oil futures are range - bound, with high inventory expectations suppressing the market. Domestic palm oil futures are also in high - level shock adjustment. For soybean oil, international palm oil price advantage and potential negative US biodiesel policies are dragging down the market. With large soybean arrivals and high factory开机 rates in June, soybean oil inventory will continue to increase, and the spot basis will decline [1]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price remained unchanged at 8050 yuan in Jiangsu on June 4. Futures price (Y2509) dropped 0.35% to 7402 yuan. Basis increased by 4.18% to 648 yuan. Warehouse receipts increased by 6.12% to 18202 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong dropped 1.71% to 8600 yuan. Futures price (P2509) fell 0.50% to 7976 yuan. Basis decreased by 14.99% to 624 yuan. The盘面 import cost dropped 0.89%, and the盘面 import profit increased 5.18% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.92% to 9320 yuan. Futures price (O1509) fell 1.05% to 8856 yuan. Basis decreased by 28.62% to 464 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: For example, the soybean - palm oil spot spread increased 21.43% to - 550 yuan, and the 2509 contract spread increased 12.30% to - 442 yuan [1]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar, which is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern. Although raw sugar has not fully entered the domestic market, future import rhythm is the focus. Domestic sugar supply - demand is generally loosening, and long - term supply increase will suppress sugar prices [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 increased 0.12% to 5624 yuan/ton, and sugar 2509 increased 0.28% to 5748 yuan/ton. The 1 - 9 spread decreased 7.83% to - 124 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased 1.78% to 335901, and the warehouse receipts decreased 1.40% to 30300 [3]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning's price remained unchanged at 2090 yuan, while Kunming's price dropped 0.67% to 5910 yuan. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and domestic prices also changed [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 11.63% and 26.07% respectively. The national cumulative sales ratio increased 12.97% to 65.22%, and the industrial inventory decreased 8.20% to 386.26 million tons [3]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The downstream of the cotton industry is weak, with falling product prices, slightly lower开机 rates, and rising inventory. However, the spot basis is still strong, and there are concerns about the end - of - period available inventory. Short - term domestic cotton prices may be in a weak - shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the macro and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2509 increased 0.04% to 13265 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 remained unchanged at 13320 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased 8.33% to - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased 2.55% to 525386, and the warehouse receipts decreased 0.77% to 10977 [6]. - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang's arrival price (3128B) dropped 0.10% to 14431 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) dropped 0.06% to 14544 yuan [6]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory decreased 7.7% to 383.40, and the industrial inventory decreased 2.6% to 92.90. The import volume decreased 14.3% to 6.00 million tons [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In June, the inventory of laying hens will reach the highest level in the past five years, increasing the supply pressure. The super - strong plum rain season has weakened the off - season demand. The egg market's supply - demand imbalance may reach a peak, and egg prices are expected to be weak [9]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot**: The egg 09 contract increased 0.21% to 3730 yuan/500KG, and the egg 07 contract decreased 0.69% to 2877 yuan/500KG. The basis decreased 76.00% to - 6 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 7 spread increased 3.39% to 853 [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of day - old chicks decreased 1.20% to 4.10 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens decreased 6.45% to 4.79 yuan/jin. The egg - feed ratio increased 0.80% to 2.53, and the breeding profit increased 7.32% to - 15.96 yuan/feather [9]. Group 5: Meal and Oilseed Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, but the market is worried about the impact of tariff policies on demand. Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic cost of soybean meal has support. With sufficient soybean arrivals and increasing oil - mill开机 rates, the supply pressure in the domestic market will increase. Two types of meal are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and the main soybean meal contract is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3000 yuan [13]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2900 yuan. The futures price (M2509) increased 0.14% to 2939 yuan. The basis decreased 11.43% to - 39 yuan. The Brazilian 7 - month ship - period's盘面 import profit decreased 21.7% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu dropped 3.54% to 2450 yuan. The futures price (RM2509) decreased 0.55% to 2543 yuan. The basis decreased 447.06% to - 93 yuan. The Canadian 7 - month ship - period's盘面 import profit decreased 336.36% [13]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, and the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 3640 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased 3.78% to 25660 [13]. - **Spreads**: For example, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased 25.00% to 450 yuan, and the 2509 contract spread increased 4.76% to 396 yuan [13]. Group 6: Pork Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs fluctuates slightly. The slaughter weight is decreasing, and the secondary fattening's impact is limited. The supply - demand situation has limited improvement, and the demand after the Dragon Boat Festival is weak. Although there are still breeding profits, the market's ability to expand production is cautious. The upward and downward trends of the pig price are both limited, and attention should be paid to the support level of 13500 yuan on the futures market [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract's basis decreased 9.76% to 740 yuan/ton. The 2507 contract increased 0.34% to 13255 yuan, and the 2509 contract decreased 0.15% to 13490 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread decreased 21.67% to 235 yuan. The main contract's open interest increased 1.55% to 78586 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions changed slightly. The daily slaughter volume decreased 0.95% to 142950 heads. The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 20.60 yuan, and the weekly price of piglets and sows also remained unchanged [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased 26.05% to 36 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased 425.34% to - 84 yuan/head. The number of fertile sows decreased 0.02% to 4038 million heads [16]. Group 7: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The remaining grain at the grass - roots level has been mostly sold. Traders' inventory is tight, and they are reluctant to sell, making the corn price easy to rise and difficult to fall. Downstream deep - processing enterprises are reducing production to destock, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap will support the corn price, but in the short - term, the concentrated listing of wheat will limit the corn's demand. The corn price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy - related releases [19][21]. Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: Corn 2507 increased 0.34% to 2333 yuan/ton. The basis of Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price decreased 160.00% to - 3 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread increased 14.81% to - 23 yuan. The open interest decreased 1.87% to 1923031, and the warehouse receipts increased 0.46% to 217020 [19]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2507 increased 0.49% to 2664 yuan/ton. The basis decreased 33.33% to 26 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread increased 9.21% to - 75 yuan. The open interest increased 0.55% to 325283, and the warehouse receipts decreased 0.21% to 24421 [19].

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米主力 2507 合约减仓调整，期价表现盘中震荡，尾盘反弹终以小阳线 收盘。昨日东北玉米价格表现基本稳定，市场购销活跃度仍显一般，但贸易商心 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 态尚可，暂无再次主动下调价格的迹象。从上周末开始，华北地区玉米价格整体 | | | | 偏强运行，整体价格有所上移。昨日上涨步伐放缓，部分深加工企业玉米价格上 | | | | 涨 10-20 元/吨，麦收之前贸易商依然有出货意愿。河南、河北价格窄幅上调 10 | | | | 元/吨左右。销区市场玉米价格整体稳定。产区余粮进一步减少，贸易商持续挺 | | | | 价。销区玉米维持刚需补库为主，高价玉米接受度一般，市场购销活动平淡。港 | | | | 口贸易商报价暂时稳定为主。技术上，玉米 7 月合约受制于长期均线压制，期价 | | | | 连续四天震荡收盘接近十字星。在现货市场中小麦替代增加，新麦上市压力之下， | | | | 预计 5-6 月玉米期、现报价延续偏弱表现。 | | | | 周二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Weakly [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Pigs: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price decreased with reduced positions on Monday, and the spot price in the northern ports was stable over the weekend. The corn price in North China was strong, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises stopped falling. The substitution of wheat increased, and it is expected that the corn futures and spot prices will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans were closed on Monday. The domestic protein meal futures price oscillated. The postponement of the 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9th eased market concerns. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume this week exceeded 2 million tons, and the spot inventory of soybean meal is expected to continue to recover. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil almost closed flat on Monday. The international soybean - palm oil price spread widened, increasing the competitive advantage of palm oil. The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased, and the production increase slowed down, which helped to ease the inventory pressure. The domestic inventory of three major vegetable oils decreased slightly, but was still higher than last year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to exceed 2 million tons this week, and the soybean oil inventory may continue to rise. Adopt a short - only strategy [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures price oscillated on Monday, with the near - month contract being weak and the far - month contract being relatively strong. The spot price increased slightly. Due to the impact of weather on terminal demand and sufficient supply, the egg price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed raw material prices and farmers' willingness to cull hens on egg prices [1]. - Pigs: The September pig futures contract rose on Monday, driven by the near - month contract. The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend, boosting the futures price. The current demand in the pig market is stable, and the price rebounded slightly today. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within a range tomorrow. The pig price is expected to be weak in June due to increased supply [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - The production of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25, 2025 increased by 0.73% [2][3]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% (AmSpec) and 34.71% (SGS) [2][3]. - Thailand issued a heavy - rain risk warning from 06:00 on May 26 to 06:00 on May 27 [3]. - It is estimated that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June and 9.5 million tons in July. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has quickly recovered to over 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory will significantly increase [3]. - CGC will organize a two - way bidding trading of 11,905 tons of imported crude soybeans on May 28 [3]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][7][8][12][13][14][18][20][26] Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [30]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published many articles [30]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and been interviewed by the media [30].

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 粮情绪改变，玉米销售价格较前期有所松动，期、现联动展开调整。现货市场方 | 震荡 | | | 周一，玉米期价减仓下行，玉米主力 2507 合约减仓调整。周末玉米现货市场售 | | | | 面，目前东北玉米售粮积极性增加，行情稍显震荡；少部分深加工企业收购价格 | | | | 也有所松动，期货市场表现一般，市场气氛不及前期。周末华北地区玉米价格维 | | | | 持稳中偏弱运行。本地贸易商继续麦收前的腾库操作，东北地区玉米货源也补充 | | | | 华北市场，深加工门前到货量尚可，部分深加工企业玉米价格继续窄幅下调。销 | | | | 区市场玉米价格整体稳定为主。港口贸易商报价逐步偏稳，近期高价玉米签单较 | | | | 少，饲料企业多执行前期订单或采用小麦替代，市场整体购销活动一般 。整体 | | | | 来看，在玉米期货市场，因担心进口玉米拍卖，政策预期偏空，玉米期价展开调 | | | | 整。技术上，玉米期价高位震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化，短期关注 7 月合约 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The spot market sentiment is divided, with the expectation of strong spot and weak futures. A short - selling strategy can be maintained for futures [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils are expected to be weak. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support egg prices in the short term, but the egg prices are likely to be weak later due to the Mei - yu season and increasing supply [2][3]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Thursday, the July corn contract decreased with reduced positions. The domestic average corn price is 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China prices are generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas are rising. Technically, the futures price is in high - level volatility, and a short - selling strategy can be maintained [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans tumbled from a 10 - month high, and soybean oil hit the daily limit down. The U.S. biodiesel policy may be less than expected. The domestic protein meal is strong. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil, Canadian rapeseed, and CBOT soybean oil declined. The domestic oil futures prices are falling, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the 2506 egg contract declined by 1.23%, and the 2509 contract rose by 0.13%. The spot price is slightly down. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support prices in the short term, but the prices are likely to be weak later [2][3]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main pig contract closed with a medium - sized阴线, and the September contract continued to move sideways. The Henan market price is down slightly, and pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3.2 Market Information - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 4.2 percentage points year - on - year, and the proportion of soybean meal decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased by 6.63% - 14.21% compared with the same period last month according to different institutions [4]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index declined. The average pork price remained the same, and the egg price increased by 1.5% [5]. - The expected biodiesel mandatory blending volume may be 46 - 48 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 55 - 57.5 billion gallons [2][5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][8][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][22][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of the futures price falling and adjusting again due to potential negative factors such as increasing production and expected significant inventory growth at the end of May. The domestic palm oil futures may fluctuate after breaking through 8,200 yuan and could potentially rise to 8,300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: If the proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US is passed, the use of soybean oil in biofuel production will increase significantly. Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil will gradually increase after the Dragon Boat Festival, which may drag down the market [1]. Meals - The US soybean trend is strong due to eased Sino - US trade tensions and downward - adjusted estimates of US soybean production and ending stocks. However, the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant without obvious positive support. The basis is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable with little change in the supply - demand relationship. The price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The 09 contract has returned above 14,000, with limited upward and downward movement [5][6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a strong bottom support. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. The corn starch market shows some fluctuations in relevant indicators [7]. Sugar - The short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to remain volatile within the range of 5,800 - 5,950 yuan per ton [11]. Cotton - The downstream of the cotton industry is gradually weakening, and the supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 13,500 - 13,700 yuan per ton [12]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the demand is average in most markets. The price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil generally increased, with different changes in basis, spreads, and inventory [1]. - **Policy Impact**: The proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US may increase the demand for soybean oil in biofuel production [1]. Meals - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed various changes in spot, futures, basis, and spreads on May 14 compared with May 13. The import crushing margins also changed [2]. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean market is strong, while the Brazilian supply pressure is being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the futures prices of some pig contracts increased, and the spot prices were stable. There were also changes in indicators such as slaughter volume, prices of piglets and sows, and breeding profits [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand relationship is stable, and the price is expected to remain volatile [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the corn futures price increased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators. The corn starch market also had corresponding changes in prices and indicators [7]. - **Market Situation**: The corn market has strong bottom support in the short term and is expected to rise in the long term due to supply - demand changes [7]. Sugar - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the futures and spot prices of sugar changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and import - related prices. The production and sales of sugar showed year - on - year growth [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic sugar price will remain volatile due to supply - demand factors [11]. Cotton - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the cotton futures and spot prices changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and inventory - related indicators. The downstream industry showed some changes in production, sales, and inventory [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate due to supply - demand and macro factors [12]. Eggs - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the prices of egg contracts, egg - related products, and indicators such as egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit changed [14]. - **Market Outlook**: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize due to supply - demand conditions [14].