证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 当前或为储备票息资产的较好窗口 ——信用周报 20251123 ❖ 信用债市场复盘 1、本周信用债收益率窄幅震荡，信用利差走势分化。本周中日摩擦有所升温 叠加美股高位回调，权益风险偏好减弱，但债市缺乏交易主线，股债跷跷板效 应不明显，债市震荡偏弱。 2、本周信用债 ETF 成分券估值波动较大，超额利差明显上行，出现超跌。信 用债 ETF 成分券超额利差自 6 月初开始快速下行，7 月下旬压缩至低位后窄 幅震荡，本周信用债 ETF 成分券超额利差上行。究其原因，一方面，信用债 整体表现偏弱，成分券流动性较好，出现超跌；另一方面，7 月以来成分券超 额利差在-10BP 左右低位震荡，前期第二批科创债 ETF 上市完成后短期增量 资金有限，估值出现回归。 ❖ 后市展望：11 月底至 12 月初将进入年末配置行情，重点关注机构配置行为变 化，考虑到明年债市或仍将窄幅震荡，当前或为储备票息资产的较好窗口，3y 以内品种利差已压缩至 2024 年最低点以下，性价比较低，或可适当拉长久期 博取收益。此外，市场对基金费率新规最终版本讨论较多，关注后续落地情况。 ❖ 信用策略：4-5y 品 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes maintaining duration as the year-end approaches, with a focus on medium to long-term credit varieties, particularly 4-5 year products which show marginal improvement in cost-performance despite still low spread levels [2][10][12] - The current yield range for long-term credit bonds (5 years and above) rated AA+ and above is between 2.16% and 2.66%, indicating a certain level of yield cost-performance [3][10] - The report notes that funds have significantly increased their allocation to 5-year and above credit bonds, reflecting a trend towards extending duration for yield [3][10] Group 2 - The report highlights key policies and events, including Tianjin's measures to support high-quality development of REITs, which aim to enhance capital market services for the real economy [4][19] - The upcoming revision of the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Management Measures" is expected to broaden the scope of applicable loans and optimize loan conditions, which could facilitate mergers and acquisitions [4][19][24] - The report mentions that the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 already issued, indicating a normalization in the issuance of infrastructure REITs [4][19][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit bond market has seen a majority of yields decline, with financial bonds performing better, while credit spreads have shown divergence [6][10] - The issuance scale of credit bonds this week was 269.9 billion, a decrease of 20.5 billion from the previous week, with net financing also down [7][10] - The report notes a decrease in trading activity in both the interbank and exchange markets for credit bonds, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [7][10]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates a significant increase in the subscription enthusiasm for public REITs since the beginning of 2025, with subscription multiples reaching historical highs. However, there is a notable divergence between the primary and secondary markets, where new projects have high offline subscription multiples but experience significantly reduced first-day price increases, even hitting new lows for the year [1][10][12] - The report attributes this divergence to three main factors: a general decline in the secondary market, increased caution among investors, and a shift in market sentiment towards stricter quality requirements for underlying assets [1][12][16] - The report highlights that since July 2025, the first-day turnover rates of newly listed REITs have remained high, indicating a strong participation of short-term speculative funds that tend to sell off on the first day, exerting downward pressure on the secondary market [1][16][22] Group 2 - The report notes that the expansion of the inquiry range and the pricing of new projects close to the upper limit of the inquiry range have narrowed the valuation gap between the primary and secondary markets, thereby squeezing the profit margins in the secondary market [2][19] - It emphasizes that the recent phenomenon of divergence in the REITs market is a result of multiple factors, including asset quality, market sentiment, funding behavior, and pricing mechanisms. As the new subscription yields continue to converge, the market is expected to shift from "short-term speculation" to "long-term allocation" [1][22] - The report suggests that investors should be cautious when participating in primary subscriptions and focus more on the quality of underlying assets. It identifies water conservancy and heating projects as having higher operational stability among listed asset types, while new asset types may receive valuation premiums upon listing, particularly in port and cultural tourism assets [1][22] Group 3 - The credit bond market review indicates mixed performance in credit bond yields, with public bonds generally outperforming bank perpetual bonds. The yields of 5-year public bonds decreased by 4-6 basis points, while 7-year bonds saw a decline of 2-4 basis points [23][24] - The report states that the issuance scale and net financing scale of credit bonds increased week-on-week, with a total issuance of 4,671.65 billion yuan, up 1,253 billion yuan from the previous week [32] - It also highlights that the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased to 2.15%, down 7.4 basis points week-on-week, with significant declines observed in financial bonds due to a higher proportion of AAA-rated bonds [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, credit bonds are expected to show a volatile trend, but there are certain participation opportunities. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. The ticket - coupon strategy is the main approach, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [1][28]. - The supply of credit bonds in November may increase seasonally, but the incremental supply is not expected to be large. The demand side shows that bank wealth management still has increments, and the impact of the new public offering regulations on bond funds is expected to be limited [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 October Credit Bond Market Review - In October, credit bond yields declined across the board, with the decline more than that of the same - term interest - rate bonds. Medium - and long - term bonds performed better than short - term bonds, and general credit bonds outperformed financial bonds [11]. - By week, the performance of credit bonds was affected by factors such as holiday data, tariff frictions, equity markets, risk - aversion sentiment, policy expectations, and the restart of treasury bond trading. The yields and spreads of credit bonds showed different trends in each week [10]. - As of November 2, the full - caliber wealth management scale dropped to 31.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The net - breaking rates of all bank wealth management products and wealth management subsidiaries decreased [13]. 3.1.2 November Credit Bond Market Outlook - Supply: Seasonally, credit bond supply usually increases in November, but considering the continuous contraction of urban investment bond supply, the supply increment this year may not be large [20]. - Demand: Bank wealth management is expected to have positive growth in November, but the incremental growth may continue to narrow. If the new public offering regulations are mitigated, the impact on bond funds may be limited [20]. - Overall, credit bonds are expected to fluctuate in November. There are participation opportunities, but it is difficult to have an independent trend. It is recommended to buy medium - and high - grade varieties on dips. Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the centralized position - building of amortized fixed - open bond funds [28]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Issuance Volume - In October 2025, the credit bond issuance scale was 1492.311 billion yuan, an increase of 161.8 billion yuan year - on - year and a decrease of 270.9 billion yuan month - on - month. The net financing amount was 310.974 billion yuan, a decrease of 132.1 billion yuan year - on - year and an increase of 140.4 billion yuan month - on - month [34]. - By type, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 5.838 billion yuan, while that of industrial bonds and financial bonds was 300.042 billion and 16.77 billion yuan respectively [34]. 3.2.2 Issuance Cost - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds was 2.22%, a decrease of 8.4bp compared with September. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds increased [39]. 3.2.3 Issuance Term - From October 1 to 31, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.95 years, a decrease of 0.01 year compared with September. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of urban investment bonds decreased [48]. 3.2.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In October, 27 credit bonds were cancelled for issuance, with a cancellation scale of 10.687 billion yuan, a decrease of 26 bonds and 17.993 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month [49]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - In October, the trading volume of all credit bond varieties except insurance sub - bonds decreased compared with the previous month. The trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds decreased the most, followed by bank perpetual bonds [54]. - By trading term, 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds were more popular. The trading performance of industrial bonds varied by term, and the trading terms of bank perpetual bonds and some other bonds also showed different trends [54]. - By implied rating, the trading of urban investment bonds shifted from medium - rated to other ratings, while that of industrial bonds shifted to high - rated bonds [55]. 3.3.2 Trading Liquidity - In October, the turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. By trading term, the turnover rate of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds decreased the most, and that of less than 1 - year industrial and financial bonds decreased the most [57]. 3.3.3 Spread Tracking - In October, the spreads of all urban investment bond varieties narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly. The 5 - year AA - rated variety had the largest narrowing amplitude of 22bp [62]. - By region, most spreads in October narrowed, with the narrowing amplitude of each province not exceeding 5bp [66]. - In October, the spreads of AAA - rated and AA - rated industrial bonds in all industries narrowed, with the AA - rated bonds having a larger average narrowing amplitude [67]. - In October, the spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds narrowed, with medium - and long - term spreads narrowing more significantly [70]. - In October, most spreads of securities sub - bonds narrowed, while those of insurance sub - bonds narrowed across the board [72]. 3.4 October Hot Bonds Overview - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores for investors' reference [74]. 3.5 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - In October, 7 bonds had their debt ratings upgraded, and there were no downgrades [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, credit bond yields declined significantly, and spreads showed a divergent trend, with 4 - 5y varieties outperforming. Although the SSE Composite Index breaking through 4000 points had an impact on the bond market, the central bank's announcement of restarting treasury bond trading and the unexpected decline in the October manufacturing PMI led to a relatively strong performance in the bond market. The improvement in institutional sentiment towards credit bond allocation drove the relatively strong performance of 4 - 5y credit varieties, with a large narrowing in spreads, while most 1 - 2y varieties and medium - term notes over 5y widened passively [1][7]. - Key policies and hot events included the release of the "Administrative Measures for Asset Management Trusts (Draft for Comment)" by the Financial Regulatory Administration, Vanke receiving a loan of up to 2.2 billion yuan from its major shareholder Shenzhen Metro Group, Vanke's Q3 2025 report showing a decline in operating income and a net loss, and the central bank's report on the financial work situation indicating a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debts [1][2][10]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bond Market Review: Most Yields Declined, 4 - 5y Varieties Performed Better - Credit bond yields declined significantly this week, and spreads showed a divergent trend, with 4 - 5y varieties outperforming. The central bank's announcement of restarting treasury bond trading and the unexpected decline in the October manufacturing PMI led to a relatively strong performance in the bond market. The improvement in institutional sentiment towards credit bond allocation drove the relatively strong performance of 4 - 5y credit varieties, with a large narrowing in spreads, while most 1 - 2y varieties and medium - term notes over 5y widened passively [1][7]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events: Vanke Received Another Loan from Shenzhen Metro Group, and the "Administrative Measures for Asset Management Trusts (Draft for Comment)" was Released - On October 31, the Financial Regulatory Administration released the "Administrative Measures for Asset Management Trusts (Draft for Comment)" to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and standardize the development of the trust industry [10]. - On October 30, Vanke announced that its major shareholder Shenzhen Metro Group would provide a loan of up to 2.2 billion yuan to repay the principal and interest of its publicly - issued bonds. As of the announcement date, Shenzhen Metro Group had provided a cumulative loan of 26.93 billion yuan (excluding this time) [2][10]. - On October 30, Vanke released its Q3 2025 report. In the first three quarters, the company's total operating income was 161.388 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 26.61%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 28.016 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 56.14%. Although Vanke's self - repayment ability was weak, it had received support from its major shareholder and financial institutions [2][11]. - On October 28, the central bank released the State Council's report on the financial work situation, stating that as of the end of September 2025, the number of national financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debts had decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to the end of March 2023, and risks had been significantly mitigated. The central bank emphasized continuing to support the debt - resolution work of financing platforms and their market - oriented transformation [2][12]. 3.3 Secondary Market: Credit Bond Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Showed a Divergent Trend - Yields of medium - and short - term notes generally declined by 2 - 13BP, with spreads of 4 - 5y varieties narrowing by 4 - 8BP, and spreads of most other maturities widening by 0 - 4BP [14]. - For urban investment bonds, yields of various varieties generally declined by 4 - 11BP, with 4 - 5y varieties performing better. Credit spreads showed a divergent trend, with spreads of most varieties narrowing by 1 - 6BP [14]. - For real estate bonds, except for the 1y and 3y AAA varieties, yields of other varieties generally declined by 3 - 12BP. Spreads of most varieties generally narrowed by 0 - 8BP [15]. - For cyclical bonds, yields of coal bonds generally declined by 2 - 12BP, and spreads of most varieties narrowed by 0 - 9BP. Yields of steel bonds generally declined by 3 - 12BP, and spreads of most varieties narrowed by 0 - 8BP [15]. - For financial bonds, yields of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of various maturities declined by 5 - 12BP, and spreads of most varieties narrowed by 1 - 8BP. Yields of securities firm sub - bonds generally declined by 1 - 9BP, and spreads of most varieties generally narrowed by 0 - 3BP. Yields of insurance sub - bonds generally declined by 5 - 11BP, and spreads of most varieties generally narrowed by 1 - 4BP [15]. 3.4 Primary Market: Net Financing of Credit Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds Declined Month - on - Month - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 224.8 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 246.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 12.6 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 148.5 billion yuan. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 105.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.83 billion yuan from last week, and the net financing was - 36.6 billion yuan, a decrease of - 4.96 billion yuan from last week [4]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity: Trading Activity in the Inter - bank Market Decreased, and Trading Activity in the Exchange Market Increased - This week, the trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market decreased, and the trading volume decreased from 586 billion yuan last week to 580.7 billion yuan. The trading activity in the exchange market increased, and the trading volume increased from 381.7 billion yuan last week to 435.8 billion yuan [4]. 3.6 Rating Adjustment: One Entity's Rating was Upgraded, and No Entity's Rating was Downgraded - This week, the rating of one entity was upgraded, and no entity's rating was downgraded [4].

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in credit bonds, particularly focusing on the 2-3 year credit bonds which currently have a yield spread higher than the lowest point in 2024 by 4-15 basis points, indicating room for exploration [1][8][10] - The 4-5 year credit bonds have seen a widening of spreads, now higher than the 2024 average by 1-6 basis points, with yields ranging from 2.11% to 2.48%, suggesting a potential for value after adjustments in September [1][10] - The performance of bank perpetual bonds has been notable, with yields generally declining by 5-11 basis points and credit spreads narrowing by 1-8 basis points, presenting short-term trading opportunities [1][10] Group 2: Key Policies and Events - Tianan Insurance's inability to repay 5.3 billion yuan in capital supplementary bonds marks the first default by an insurance company in China, raising concerns about governance and operational pressures [2][12][15] - The report outlines the timeline of Tianan Insurance's operational challenges, including governance issues, regulatory takeover, asset divestiture, and eventual bond default, which reflects broader risks in the insurance sector [2][13][14][15] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the potential contagion risks among insurance companies, especially regarding the non-redemption risks of subordinate bonds, as seen with other companies this year [2][15] Group 3: Market Overview - Recent weeks have shown a general decline in credit bond yields, with a notable performance from high-grade short-term bonds, particularly in the context of rising market risk aversion due to U.S.-China tariff policies [5][8] - The report suggests that the market's risk appetite has slightly decreased compared to the third quarter, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the central bank, indicating a possible further decline in yields [5][9] - The report advises investors to seize opportunities for building positions in credit bonds during market adjustments, particularly in light of the recent tariff disruptions [5][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with most credit bond yields rising and credit spreads showing mixed performance, particularly in the short-end segment [10][21] - It is suggested to focus on the 2-3 year credit bonds for yield opportunities, as their spreads are higher than the lowest points in 2024 and lower than the average spread since 2024, indicating potential for value [12][21] - The report highlights that the financial bonds have shown some recovery after significant adjustments, but the sentiment remains cautious with limited room for bullish positions [10][21] Group 2 - Key policies include the announcement of a loan from Shenzhen Metro Group to Vanke for debt repayment, totaling up to 2.064 billion yuan, with cumulative loans since 2025 reaching 25.941 billion yuan [3][14] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1.48198 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly up by 0.02% [15][20] - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to provide loans to state-owned enterprises and financing platforms to settle overdue accounts, with a total debt scale of approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the secondary market for credit bonds is active, with a significant increase in trading volume observed [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the context of the upcoming policy changes and market conditions [10][21] - The report also mentions that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has optimized the bond repurchase business to stabilize market prices, which may lead to a narrowing of spreads for lower-rated bonds [4][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

Group 1 - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with financial bond spreads widening more than non-financial credit bonds. The 5-year and 7-year spreads for lower-rated bonds narrowed significantly, by 4-8 basis points [2][10] - The 3-year financial bonds saw a notable widening in spreads, particularly for perpetual bonds, with 3-year spreads widening by 3-4 basis points [2][10] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased from 1.99% to 1.93%, indicating a decline in market activity. The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.1 years to 3.0 years [3][10] Group 2 - Institutional behavior shows an increased allocation to credit bonds by wealth management and insurance sectors, while funds have reduced their holdings in secondary capital bonds. Wealth management has focused on increasing positions in bonds with maturities of one year or less [4][10] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a recommendation to prioritize defensive strategies. It is suggested to adopt a short-duration strategy to enhance returns while maintaining portfolio stability [5][10] Group 3 - The average yield for city investment bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 2.12%, with significant variations across provinces. High-yield city investment bonds are concentrated in longer-term bonds [13][17] - The average yield for industrial bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 1.90%, with the textile and social services sectors showing higher yields [17]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit bond yields across various maturities continue to decline, with short-term yields decreasing more than long-term ones, and lower-rated bonds experiencing greater yield reductions than higher-rated ones [1][9] - As of August 8, the credit spreads for 3Y/AAA, AAA-, and AA+ short-term bonds are 18.81BP, 22.81BP, and 26.81BP respectively, which are close to the year's lowest points [1][9] - The current environment is favorable for credit bonds, with a high carry opportunity and stable funding conditions, suggesting further compression of credit spreads in the last three weeks of August [1][9] Group 2 - The report highlights that industrial investment and major project construction are becoming new drivers for regional economic development, with infrastructure projects in transportation, water conservancy, and energy expected to play significant roles [4][18] - It emphasizes the need for local governments to balance between reducing debt and increasing investment in infrastructure to stimulate employment and economic growth [18][19] - The report notes that there is substantial growth potential in industrial investments, particularly in high-tech sectors, which can provide significant returns [19][20] Group 3 - The report suggests that investors should focus on low-duration, high-rated, and highly liquid credit bonds, especially those with significant recovery potential, as the market adjusts [2][13] - It identifies specific bonds with high recovery potential, including 20 public bonds with implied ratings of AA+ and above, which have shown active trading and recovery space of over 12BP [3][16] - The report advises caution regarding long-term credit bonds, as the sustainability of the current credit spread compression is uncertain [2][13]