1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After two years of debt resolution, there are improvement signals in the total amount of urban investment debt, with the proportion of bank loans increasing and the "stable quantity and falling price" of urban investment debt driving down interest - payment expenditures. The changes in fundamentals are consistent with the pricing trend of urban investment bonds. In July, the urban investment sentiment index improved, with a double - decline in the number of non - standard and private placement products. The issuance and review side improved month - on - month but remained tight overall, and the urban investment bonds continued to shrink. The trading sentiment in the secondary market warmed up, and the model pointed to going long. In the volatile market, the coupons of medium - and short - term bonds are more certain [1]. - The supply - and - demand pattern of urban investment bonds continues, and institutions still lack coupon assets. Although the registration scale and feedback days on the issuance and review side improved slightly month - on - month, the supply remained tight overall. In July, there was a net outflow of 21.784 billion yuan in urban investment bonds, and the outstanding scale continued to shrink. On the demand side, the net purchase volume of funds was not large in July due to subscription and redemption, while the allocation rhythm of wealth management was not significantly affected. With the relief of the redemption pressure on funds and the seasonal growth of wealth management scale after the quarter, the allocation power of credit bonds in the third quarter is expected to be strongly supported [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 What Changes Have Occurred in Urban Investment Debt in Two Years of Debt Resolution? 3.1.1 Changes in Urban Investment Debt Structure - At the industry level, the scale of urban investment debt is still growing, and the proportion of bank loans has increased slightly. As of the end of March 2025, the total interest - bearing debt of urban investment platforms was 61.72 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase from the end of June 2023. Among them, bank loans, bonds, and non - standard debts were 40.67 trillion yuan, 15.41 trillion yuan, and 5.63 trillion yuan respectively, with increases of 13.06%, 2.25%, and 4.97% respectively compared to the end of June 2023. The proportion of bank loans in the interest - bearing debt of urban investment platforms increased from 63.76% at the end of June 2023 to 65.9% at the end of March 2025 [14][15]. - There are differences among provinces. As of the end of March 2025, 18 provinces saw an increase in the proportion of bank loans, and 8 provinces including Ningxia, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, etc. had an increase of more than 3 percentage points. The financing structures of key provinces such as Gansu, Guangxi, Guizhou, etc. improved, with an increase in the proportion of bank loans and a simultaneous decrease in the proportion of bonds and non - standard debts [18][19]. 3.1.2 Has the Interest - Payment Pressure of Urban Investment Been Alleviated? - The costs of all channels have decreased. Since June 2023, the financing costs of bank loans and non - standard financing have decreased. In March 2025, the bank loan interest rate was 3.26%, a 69 - basis - point decrease from June 2023, and the non - standard financing cost was 5.14%, a 208 - basis - point decrease. The issuance coupon rate of urban investment bonds also decreased, reaching 2.2% in July 2025 [21]. - The annual interest - payment has decreased by over 190 billion yuan. The interest expenditure of bank loans decreased by 28.438 billion yuan, that of urban investment bonds decreased by 135.535 billion yuan, and that of non - standard debts decreased by 26.173 billion yuan [23][24]. - Except for Beijing and Shanghai, the interest - payment expenditures of urban investment bonds in all provinces have decreased. The interest - payment expenditures of urban investment bonds in some economically strong provinces and provinces that have received more debt - resolution support, such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, have decreased significantly [29]. 3.2 Market Outlook: Medium - and Short - Term Urban Investment Bonds Are More Certain - In early July, the bond market adjusted due to the anti - involution policy. In the second half of the month, under the influence of multiple factors, the market sentiment eased, and the market started to repair and re - price funds and fundamentals. In the volatile bond market, medium - and short - term coupon assets are more certain, and the recovery of low - and medium - grade urban investment bonds is favored [32]. 3.3 Primary Issuance: Supply Remains Tight, and Issuance Enthusiasm Is High 3.3.1 Urban Investment Bond Issuance and Review Situation - The issuance and review rhythm improved month - on - month but remained tight overall. In July, the registration quota of urban investment bonds in the inter - bank market was 11.7091 billion yuan, a 52.69% month - on - month increase, but the registration completion ratio was only 11%. The number of feedbacks before the meeting decreased from 2.7 times in June to 2.28 times in July but remained at a relatively high level [34]. - The use of raised funds is still mainly for debt replacement, and it is difficult to break through new increments. In July, the proportion of debt replacement in the raised funds of urban investment bonds was 86.13%, and the proportion of other new uses was 3.62%, the lowest in 2025 [36]. 3.3.2 Urban Investment Dim - Sum Bonds: Increased Month - on - Month - The issuance of urban investment dim - sum bonds reached a new high in 2025 but was less popular than the same period last year. In July, 13 urban investment dim - sum bonds were issued, with a total scale of 8.273 billion yuan, significantly lower than 20.166 billion yuan in the same period of 2024. Henan and Shandong were the main issuers [42]. 3.3.3 The Issuance Enthusiasm Remains High, and the Coupon Rate Reached a New Low in the Year - The overall subscription enthusiasm in the primary market of urban investment bonds remained high. In July, the subscription multiple of urban investment bonds reached 3.67 times, and the "issuance coupon - lower limit of the range" was 34.75BP, lower than the same period last year [47]. - The issuance term of urban investment bonds was concentrated in 3 - 5 years, accounting for 46.48% in July. The weighted issuance coupon rate in July was 2.2%, a 7 - basis - point decrease from the previous month [49][50]. 3.3.4 Continued Net Outflow, and Urban Investment Bonds Further Shrunk - The net financing scale of urban investment bonds generally decreased, and the financing of key provinces tightened more significantly. In July, the cumulative net financing scale of urban investment bonds in key provinces was - 104.293 billion yuan, and that in non - key provinces was - 43.302 billion yuan [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Trading Sentiment Warmed Up, and the Model Pointed to Going Long 3.4.1 The Turnover Ratio of Each Term Declined Month - on - Month, and 3 - Year Urban Investment Bonds May Be More Suitable for Trading - Since the beginning of 2024, credit bonds have gradually moved towards the logic of liquidity pricing. The liquidity of bonds with a term of less than 1 year is better than that of medium - and long - term bonds. The turnover ratio of 3 - 5 - year bonds slightly recovered in June and July, and 3 - year high - grade urban investment bonds are more suitable for trading [54][55]. 3.4.2 Good Trading Sentiment, and More Low - Valuation Transactions - After a short - term adjustment, the weekly main - buying index began to rise, and the bullish sentiment quickly recovered. In the last week of July, the proportion of Bid transactions reached 34.52%, and the TKN proportion increased by 13.9 percentage points month - on - month [56]. - Low - valuation transactions of urban investment bonds reappeared, and the transaction term remained at a high level. On July 31, the deviation was - 2.40BP, and the weighted transaction term on the last trading day of July was 2.51 years, at the 82.2% quantile level since the beginning of 2024 [56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" may be Supply - side Reform 2.0, potentially driving a significant rebound in PPI and impacting the bond market [2]. - The stock market is rising steadily, with a notable increase in risk appetite. This may attract funds into the stock market, putting pressure on the bond market [2]. - China's export resilience is prominent. There is a possibility of a further reduction in US tariffs on China, which could promote export growth [2]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project may boost infrastructure investment growth and drive up related stock prices [2]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution". The report recommends long - duration sinking of urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - bonds, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in certain capital bonds and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Macroeconomic Policy Impact - In 2015, supply - side reform and shantytown renovation promoted a significant rebound in PPI and nominal GDP growth, causing the bond market to decline. In 2025, "anti - involution" has become the focus of economic policy and may have a similar impact [2]. Stock and Bond Market Relationship - Since the Spring Festival in 2025, the stock market has been rising steadily, ending the negative economic cycle from 2022 - 2024. The wealth effect of the stock market promotes consumption, and the inflow of funds into the stock market may put pressure on the bond market [2]. Export Situation - China's total export value has grown rapidly in the past year. The resilience of exports is not only due to "rush - to - export" but also reflects the global competitiveness of many industries. A reduction in US tariffs on China could further boost exports [2]. Infrastructure Investment - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, may drive the stabilization of infrastructure investment growth and the rise of related stocks [2]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's trading volume is overly concentrated in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. If the "anti - involution" efforts are strong, it may lead to the collapse of the ultra - long - term bond concentration and a 10 - 20BP adjustment in the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury yield may need a new round of interest rate cuts to reach a new low. In the short term, the bond market will fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the bond market, specifically focusing on the insurance subordinated debt market, credit bonds, and data center REITs [1][5][11]. Key Insights and Arguments Bond Market Outlook - The interest rate bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in 2025, with limited upward potential due to low likelihood of policy tightening by the central bank [1][2]. - Credit spreads are anticipated to compress further, prompting institutions to seek lower-rated credits for higher yields [3][5]. Insurance Subordinated Debt Market - The insurance subordinated debt market is relatively small, with a total scale of approximately 500 billion, compared to 6-7 trillion for bank-related instruments [5][6]. - The investment structure is shifting towards market-oriented institutions, which may enhance trading volume and market recognition [6]. - Risk assessments should focus on state-owned large insurance companies due to the significant spread loss risks faced by life insurance companies [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - Long-term insurance subordinated debt with yields above 2.5% is recommended, particularly products from Huatai Life and Sunshine Life [9]. - Investors are advised to be cautious with subordinated debt from smaller insurance companies due to potential non-redemption risks [7][8]. City Investment Bonds - City investment bonds offer high yields without exchange rate risks, with offshore yields reaching 5-6%, significantly higher than the domestic 2.5% [10]. - Investors with QD quotas are encouraged to purchase these bonds through Hong Kong for better value [10]. Data Center REITs - Data center REITs have shown strong performance since 2024, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion and a 15% increase in the index this year [11][12]. - These REITs are characterized by high customer stickiness, long lease terms, and stable revenue, making them attractive investments [13][14]. - The operational model of data center REITs differs significantly from traditional property REITs, focusing on technology and operational capabilities [16]. Investment Strategy for Data Center REITs - Investors are encouraged to participate in the issuance of newly approved data center REITs due to their strong underlying assets and potential for initial premium returns [17][18]. - The unique characteristics of data center REITs, including their dual nature of real estate and technology, position them favorably in the market [18]. Additional Important Points - The shift in investor structure towards more market-oriented institutions in the insurance subordinated debt market could lead to increased trading activity and recognition [6]. - The potential risks associated with smaller insurance companies' subordinated debt require careful monitoring of their performance and redemption practices [8].

Group 1: Debt Issuance and Replacement - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, completing over 80% of the annual quota for replacing stock hidden debts of 2 trillion yuan [1] - Local governments have cumulatively issued over 120 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds, indicating a significant gap between actual issuance and publicly announced figures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 1,193 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a net withdrawal of 72 billion yuan, maintaining an operation interest rate of 1.40% [2] Group 3: Regional Debt Limits - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a new government debt limit of 111 billion yuan for Guangxi in 2025, including 30.3 billion yuan for general debt and 80.7 billion yuan for special debt [3] - Guizhou Province plans to issue 33.24 billion yuan in government special bonds to support existing government investment projects, with an increase in provincial revenue budget by 3.504 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Bond Market Developments - Zhengzhou City Investment Group made its debut in the credit bond market with a 1 billion yuan issuance, featuring a dual-term structure with low interest rates [5] - The first issuance of aerospace technology bonds in the country was completed, with a scale of 300 million yuan and an interest rate of 2.28% [6] - Xuchang City Investment Group issued a 1 billion yuan short-term financing bond at an interest rate of 1.83% [7] - Yuzhou City Guoyun Capital Operating Company completed a 20 million yuan corporate bond issuance at an interest rate of 2.90% [8] - Kaifeng Development Group issued a 600 million yuan corporate bond at an interest rate of 2.73% [10] Group 5: Corporate Financing - New City Development plans to issue senior unsecured US dollar bonds, marking a significant move for private real estate companies to re-enter the overseas capital market [11] Group 6: Market Sentiment and Investment Opportunities - The market is seeing an increase in interest in "dim sum bonds" and onshore RMB bonds, with a recommendation to focus on high-yield city investment bonds, particularly those issued with SBLC or cross-border guarantees [15][16]