报告导读： 废纸系纸价加速上涨，预计 8-9 月盈利持续修复，木浆系浆价连续提涨，纸 价待旺季传导，龙头纸厂有望受益。 废纸系纸价加速上涨，预计 8-9 月盈利持续修复。 废纸系方面，龙头持续提价， 8 月加速落地， 8 月 22 日各区域再生箱板纸价格较 7 月初上涨 125- 195 元，其中 8 月上涨 110-170 元， AA 级高瓦价格较 7 月初上涨 165-265 元，其中 8 月上涨 135-220 元，近两周纸价涨幅逐步超过废纸涨幅，盈 利开始修复，我们预计 8-9 月纸价将持续提涨，价差将继续扩大。 木浆系浆价连续提涨，纸价待旺季提价。 木浆系方面，各地区主流阔叶浆国内价格 4160-4250 元 / 吨，较 7 月初上涨 150-190 元 / 吨，外盘 8 月 Suzano 、 CMPC 等阔叶浆报价提涨 20 美元，本周 Suzano 宣布 9 月阔叶浆亚洲报价上涨 20 美元 / 吨，欧美报价上涨 80 美元 / 吨，我们预计后续旺 季纸厂补库将继续拉动阔叶浆价格上涨，成品纸价格仍待企稳，主要由于需求端淡季较淡，供给端存在新增及复工产能预期影响，预计随着行业逐步进入旺 季，纸价有 ...

公司方面，据长江证券表示，玖龙纸业、博汇纸业等体量较大、吨盈利低位，后续利润弹性大以及特种 纸龙头仙鹤股份、华旺科技等。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 8月20日行情显示，港股玖龙纸业大涨逾11%。 消息面上，玖龙纸业公布，集团预计上半年盈利约21亿元至23亿元之间，较去年度7.93亿元增长165% 至190%。该盈利增长乃主要得益于销量上升，且原材料成本下降幅度及速度显著快于产品售价降幅， 从而推动毛利上升。 国泰海通证券表示，7月以来玖龙为首的龙头纸企提价，带动各地再生箱板纸、瓦楞纸行业均价上涨； 从提价落地节奏来看，7月底至8月初落地明显加速，主要由于成本端国废价格稳步抬升，促使7月中下 旬起小厂积极跟随涨价；预计旺季需求及成本驱动下，纸价将持续上涨，与原料成本差将重新扩大，盈 利有望改善。 兴业证券指出，目前纸价和浆价均处在历史底部，随四季度进入传统旺季，浆价纸价均有望向上，叠加 反内卷政策加持，行业或迎上行周期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.92%, outperforming the market by 1.53 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.14%, surpassing the market by 1.76 percentage points [2][12] - The report highlights a downward trend in pulp prices, with Chilean hardwood pulp prices dropping by $70 per ton and softwood pulp prices decreasing by $55 per ton [4][23] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on specialty paper leaders like Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy) and high-end decorative paper leader Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2025/04/21-2025/04/27) - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.92%, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 2.14%, ranking 7th among 28 first-level industries [12][2] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing ranked by growth are packaging and printing, cultural products, paper, and furniture, with respective increases of 4.39%, 2.78%, 2.14%, and a decrease of 0.28% [12][2] 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking: Pulp and Paper Prices Decline 2.1 Raw Materials - Domestic waste paper prices remained stable, while pulp prices fell; hardwood pulp prices decreased by 112 RMB per ton, and softwood pulp prices fell by 40 RMB per ton [9][23] - The report notes a total of 1.79 million tons of pulp inventory at two major Chinese ports, a decrease of 10.9% [24][31] 2.2 Finished Paper - The average market price for various paper products fell, with double glue paper down by 38 RMB per ton, copper plate paper down by 14 RMB per ton, and white card paper down by 39 RMB per ton [37][40][42] 2.3 Profitability Levels - Profitability varied among cultural papers, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 17 RMB per ton, while large companies experienced a decrease of 41 RMB per ton [46][47] - The profitability of waste paper products also declined, with decreases ranging from 9 to 44 RMB per ton [53] 2.4 Mechanism Paper and Board Production - The cumulative production of mechanism paper and board in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [55] - The report indicates a decrease in imports of paper and board by 8.2% year-on-year, while exports increased by 10.7% [55]