截至最新收盘，顺丰控股股价报收40.09元/股，总市值为2020亿元。 据统计，最近两个月顺丰控股的股价"跌跌不休"，8月27日至今其股价跌幅超过17%，市值缩水近400亿 元。 为何顺丰控股的股价会逆势下跌？ 有分析指出，主要原因是其8月末披露的《"共同成长"持股计划（A股）（草案）》。在这份"共同成 长"持股计划中，顺丰控股提到了公司控股股东深圳明德控股发展有限公司将无偿赠予不超过2亿股A股 股票作为员工激励，股份分9年授予。媒体分析，虽然"共同成长"持股计划中的股票由控股股东明德控 股无偿赠予，没有直接消耗顺丰控股的资金，但依据会计准则，该计划最终将转化为上市公司的"账面 成本"，直接影响各年度净利润。 不过，像这种类似的股权激励计划并不在少数，比如此前海光信息也曾抛出一份数十亿的股权激励计 划，并且授予的股票还不是股东无偿赠予的，但股权激励计划披露后海光信息的股价却仍在上行，进入 9月以来其股价涨幅超过了37%。 对于上市公司来说，股权激励计划十分常见，并且顺丰控股的股权激励还会分9年授予，短期内并不会 对股价造成实质上的影响。那么，为何最近一段时间顺丰控股的股价会持续下跌？资金到底在担心些什 么？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and challenges faced by SF Holding, highlighting the disparity between its strong revenue growth and declining stock price, primarily due to market concerns over future stock dilution and profitability issues in its new business segments [4][6][24]. Financial Performance - SF Holding reported a revenue of 146.86 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, with a net profit of 5.74 billion yuan, up 19.37% [6][8]. - The company achieved a business volume of 78.5 billion parcels, growing 25.7% year-on-year, surpassing the industry average growth of 19.3% [6][8]. - The logistics and freight forwarding segment contributed 143.53 billion yuan, accounting for 97.73% of total revenue, with a growth of 10.23% [8]. Business Segments - SF Holding's main business segments include express delivery, supply chain, and same-city delivery, with the express delivery segment generating 1,047.73 billion yuan, a growth of 8.21% [7][19]. - The same-city delivery segment saw a significant increase of 38.77%, reaching 55.83 billion yuan [7][19]. - Despite revenue growth, the average price per shipment fell to 14 yuan, a decrease of 12.2%, impacting the overall gross margin, which dropped to 13.22% [9][19]. Strategic Shifts - SF Holding has shifted its strategy from "price for volume" to "value preservation," but has recently reverted to a price-cutting approach to maintain market share [12][13]. - The company aims to diversify its revenue sources by expanding into logistics, cold chain, and international services, with supply chain and international business becoming significant revenue contributors [15][16]. Stockholder Concerns - The introduction of a stock incentive plan, involving the distribution of up to 200 million shares to employees, raised concerns about potential stock dilution and its impact on share price [21][24]. - The plan, which could lead to significant expenses over the next decade, has been viewed negatively by investors, contributing to the stock's decline [21][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][18]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient growth under diversified operations, with expectations for profit margin recovery to enhance earnings elasticity [2][14][15]. - The company has achieved a year-on-year revenue increase of 9.26% in H1 2025, reaching 1468.58 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 19.37%, totaling 57.38 billion yuan [6][12]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements through multi-network integration and operational model transformation [14][15]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 13.22%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 3.91%, up 0.33 percentage points [8][11]. - The company processed 7.813 billion parcels in H1 2025, reflecting a 25.73% increase year-on-year, although the average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.32% to 13.97 yuan [7][12]. - The company’s revenue from various segments showed robust growth, with express delivery, economic express, and same-city instant delivery increasing by 6.8%, 14.4%, and 38.9% respectively [12][14]. Profitability and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3170.76 billion yuan, 3512.63 billion yuan, and 3899.48 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 11% [16][17]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 117.73 billion yuan, 136.68 billion yuan, and 158.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16% [17]. - The report anticipates that ongoing cost reduction initiatives and profit margin recovery will significantly enhance the company's earnings elasticity [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing a "slow bull" market driven by "anti-involution" and technological innovation, with significant growth in express delivery volumes and a shift from price competition to value competition [1][3]. Industry Overview - As of August 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 15.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 21.91%, the ChiNext by 34.95%, and the Hang Seng Index by 25.1% [2]. - The express delivery sector saw a total of 956.4 billion packages delivered in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [3]. Company Performance - SF Holding reported a revenue of 146.858 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, and a net profit of 5.738 billion yuan, up 19.37% [5][19]. - The company's express logistics business volume reached 7.85 billion packages, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [9][10]. Business Model Transformation - SF Holding's business model has shifted from "scale-driven" to "value-driven," achieving a threefold resonance in volume, revenue, and profit [7][12]. - The company has enhanced its service quality and efficiency, focusing on customer-centric differentiated product strategies [13][14]. Technological Advancements - SF Holding is leveraging technology to enhance operational efficiency, with significant investments in automation and smart logistics systems [20]. - The company has improved its small package transfer efficiency by 12.5% in the first half of 2025, while reducing transfer costs [20]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - SF Holding has established a comprehensive global supply chain network, covering 339 domestic administrative regions and 95 countries internationally [17]. - The company has a strong brand reputation, with over 95% of Fortune China 500 companies collaborating with SF Holding [19]. Investment Outlook - Short-term prospects are bolstered by improved cyclical performance and the potential of international business [21]. - Mid-term strategies include expanding into REITs and diversifying revenue streams across various logistics sectors [22]. - Long-term growth is expected from continuous value creation and technological advancements, which may redefine the logistics industry landscape [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing a transformation driven by "anti-involution" and "technological innovation," which are complementary forces that enhance value investment opportunities [4]. Industry Overview - As of August 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 15.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 21.91%, the ChiNext Index by 34.95%, and the Hang Seng Index by 25.1% [3]. - The logistics sector is positioned at the intersection of these two driving forces, with a notable increase in express delivery volume, which reached 95.64 billion pieces in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.3% [5]. Company Performance - SF Holding's mid-year report for 2025 shows revenue of 146.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, and a net profit of 5.738 billion yuan, up 19.37%, with a net profit margin of 3.9% [6][40]. - The company's express logistics segment has shifted from a "scale-driven" model to a "value-driven" dual-engine model, achieving a threefold resonance in volume, revenue, and profit [11]. Business Segments - The express logistics segment saw a volume of 7.85 billion pieces in the first half of 2025, growing by 25.7%, outpacing the industry average [13]. - The high-value express business has expanded into various sectors, including consumer goods and high-end manufacturing, contributing to a revenue increase of over 20% in these areas [16]. Competitive Advantage - SF Holding is transitioning from volume growth to enhancing service quality and efficiency, establishing a strong competitive edge through a comprehensive ecosystem [24]. - The company has built a robust logistics network, including 59 domestic and 19 international routes from its Ezhou cargo hub, enhancing its service capabilities [26]. Technological Innovation - SF Holding is leveraging technology to improve operational efficiency, with significant investments in automation and smart logistics, resulting in a 12.5% increase in small package transfer efficiency [32]. - The company has implemented intelligent systems that enhance service delivery, achieving a 13.7% improvement in small package collection and delivery efficiency [32]. Investment Outlook - From a short-term perspective, the company's performance indicates cyclical improvements and potential in international business, supported by a strong fundamental outlook [34]. - In the medium term, SF Holding's expansion into REITs and diversified business segments is expected to reshape its asset value and profitability [35]. - Long-term prospects include the continuous enhancement of its global supply chain network and technological advancements that could redefine the logistics industry landscape [38].

Financial Performance Highlights - SF Holding achieved a revenue of RMB 146.9 billion, a 9.3% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2025 [11] - Profit attributable to owners of the company reached RMB 5.7 billion, representing a 19.4% year-over-year growth [11] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) increased by 16.0% year-over-year to RMB 1.16 [11] - The company declared an interim cash dividend of RMB 2.3 billion, a 20.9% increase, with an interim cash dividend per share of RMB 0.46, up by 15.0% [11] - Parcel volume increased by 25.7% to 7.8 billion [11] Segment Performance - Express & Logistics revenue grew by 10.4% to RMB 109.3 billion [11] - Supply Chain & International revenue increased by 9.7% to RMB 34.2 billion [11] - Intra-City On-Demand Delivery revenue increased by 38.9% [25] Cost and Efficiency - The company is implementing structural cost optimization and strategic investments to enhance market competitiveness [65] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) as a percentage of revenue decreased to 2.9% [85] Strategic Initiatives - SF Holding launched the "Grow Together" Shareholding Scheme to align employee interests with the company's long-term goals [88] - The company is expanding its global infrastructure network, including overseas warehouses and all-cargo international flights [32]