证券研究报告 凯因科技 (688687 CH) 利润持续增长，期待派益生顺利获批 2025 年 8 月 17 日│中国内地 生物医药 公司公布上半年业绩：收入 5.7 亿元，同比-5%；归母净利润 0.5 亿元，同 比+12%。其中二季度公司实现收入 3.3 亿元，同比-13%；归母净利润 0.2 亿元，同比+7%。公司利润持续释放，siRNA 已于 7M25 获批开展乙肝临床 实验，派益生（长效干扰素）有望 25 年内获批。我们看好公司作为国内肝 病领域领先力量，派益生顺利获批、持续扩充产品、进军乙肝大市场，维持 "买入"评级。 存量品种表现稳健，费用率持续优化 1）根据 PDB 样本医院数据，1Q25 金舒喜、凯因益生市场份额持续保持领 先，凯力唯在肝病专家学术合作+下沉县域市场的有效策略下展现较强韧性； 2）公司控费同时加码研发，2Q25 销售、管理、研发费用率分别为 48%、 11%、13%（环比-1 pct、-1 pct、+3 pct）。我们看好公司持续优化费率、 重视研发，在提高利润率水平的同时布局长远。 聚焦乙肝功能性治愈，长效干扰素蓄势待发 1）公司聚焦乙肝功能性治愈，KW040 已于 7M2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a net profit of 0.47 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.75%, despite a 5.05% decline in revenue to 5.66 billion yuan [1] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, with an expenditure of 71.41 million yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 12.61% of revenue, and is advancing multiple clinical projects in the hepatitis B treatment field [2] - Sales of key products remain robust, with the company implementing effective market strategies and achieving strong performance in the hepatitis C market [3] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have led to an increase in net profit margin to 8.36%, up 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.47 billion yuan, an increase of 11.75% [1] - The company expects revenues of 13.59 billion yuan, 16.06 billion yuan, and 19.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.64 billion yuan, 1.94 billion yuan, and 2.37 billion yuan for the same years [4] R&D and Product Development - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with a 1.22% increase in R&D spending year-on-year, and is progressing with several clinical trials for hepatitis B treatments [2] - Key products such as Jinshuxi and Kaiyin Yisheng are showing strong sales performance, supported by effective market strategies and collaborations with experts in the liver disease field [3] Profitability and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced sales expenses by 11.68% year-on-year, leading to an improved net profit margin of 8.36% in the first half of 2025 [3] - The report highlights the positive impact of cost reduction measures on profitability, with a notable decrease in sales expense ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kaiyin Technology, is actively advancing its drug development projects and has reported positive financial performance in Q1 2025, indicating growth potential in the biopharmaceutical sector focused on viral and immune diseases [6][8]. Group 1: Drug Development Progress - The company has received acceptance for its new drug application for chronic hepatitis B treatment by the National Medical Products Administration in September 2024, with further updates to be provided by regulatory announcements [2]. - In 2025, the company plans to accelerate the clinical progress of several projects, including KW-051 for shingles, KW-045 for herpetic pharyngitis, and KW-053 for genital warts, while also focusing on the Phase I clinical study of a new drug KW-040 [3]. - The company is concentrating on innovative drug development for functional cure of hepatitis B, with ongoing clinical trials for KW-001 and KW-027, and has submitted a clinical trial application for KW-040 [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The domestic hepatitis C market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company’s product, Kailiwei, expected to leverage its competitive advantages in product strength and promotional strategies to achieve breakthroughs [4]. - The company is enhancing the brand influence of its product Jinshuxi, which has been included in the Jiangxi centralized procurement, aiming for increased market share through strategic channel optimization and cancer screening initiatives [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 232 million yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 25.67 million yuan, reflecting a 15.92% year-on-year growth [6]. - The company’s gross profit margin stands at 82.95%, with a debt ratio of 24.29%, indicating a strong financial position [6]. - Recent institutional ratings show 5 buy ratings and 2 hold ratings, with an average target price of 44.97 yuan over the past 90 days [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.87%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 142 million yuan, an increase of 22.18% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to stabilize or recover growth in its core products following the implementation of centralized procurement policies and adjustments in sales models [2][8] - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with ongoing projects in various therapeutic areas, including hepatitis and herpes [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, down 12.87% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 142 million yuan, up 22.18% year-on-year [2][9] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.41 billion yuan, 1.66 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.04 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.57 yuan [8][9] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 12.94%, an increase of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Development and Market Position - The company's key product, Kailewei, has shown steady growth, and the long-acting interferon α-2 injection has received acceptance for a new indication application [3][8] - The company has successfully renewed its medical insurance directory, further solidifying its competitive advantage in the market [3][8] - The employee stock ownership plan aims to enhance employee motivation and reflects the company's confidence in long-term development [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024 but showed significant growth in net profit, indicating a potential recovery in profitability despite challenges from policy changes and market adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.87%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 142 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.18% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 232 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 26 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.92% [1]. Group 2: Revenue Decline Factors - The revenue decline in 2024 was primarily due to the implementation of centralized procurement policies for Jinshuxi and Kaiyinyi, which led to price reductions across various provinces [2]. - The transitional phase of the sales model for Anboshi also contributed to the revenue impact, although cost reduction strategies helped improve profitability, with a net profit margin of 12.94%, an increase of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Product Development and Growth - The product Kai Li Wei achieved steady growth in 2024, and the company successfully renewed its inclusion in the medical insurance catalog, enhancing its competitive position [3]. - Ongoing research and development efforts include the application for new indications for the long-acting interferon α-2 injection, which was accepted by the CDE on September 30, 2024 [3]. Group 4: Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan, with a share price of 13.13 per share, aiming to motivate employees and demonstrate long-term confidence in the company's growth [4]. - The plan includes performance targets for revenue and net profit growth for 2025 and 2026, with specific unlock conditions for employee shares [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The core product Kai Li Wei is expected to continue its steady growth, and other products like Jinshuxi and Anboshi are anticipated to stabilize or recover post-policy adjustments [5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 1.41 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.91 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.04, 1.33, and 1.57 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The long-acting interferon is expected to be approved by the end of 2025, which is seen as a significant growth opportunity for the company [9]. - The company has demonstrated confidence in its future development by launching an employee stock ownership plan, which involves repurchased shares and aims to incentivize performance based on revenue and profit growth targets [9]. - Despite a revenue decline in 2024 due to price reductions from procurement policies, the company is expected to recover as product coverage improves and sales strategies stabilize [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.87% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 22.18% to 142 million yuan [3][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 8.90% year-on-year, reaching 232 million yuan, with net profit growing by 15.92% to 26 million yuan [3]. - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 1.54 billion yuan and 1.98 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 25.5% and 28.6% [11]. Key Financial Ratios - The company maintains a healthy gross margin of approximately 81.9% for 2024, with a net profit margin of 11.6% [11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.7% in 2024 to 11.6% by 2027, indicating increasing profitability [11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 29.5 in 2024 to 15.5 in 2027, suggesting that the stock may become more attractive as earnings grow [11].