医药：景气延续，持续重点推荐创新药械产业链 20260106 摘要 创新药和创新器械领域龙头企业如药明康德、泰格医药、联影医疗、乐 普医疗等值得关注，同时关注国产化率较低、出海空间较大的板块，受 益于中国产业升级和全球研发格局变化。 消费医疗公司在经历价格触底后，有望在 2026 年恢复正增长，一季度 可能逐步体现部分公司的弱复苏，超跌的口腔及眼科龙头值得关注。 脑机接口产业正处于技术突破、临床验证和商业落地的关键转折期，政 策支持和技术突破将推动产业发展，Neuralink 量产计划引发投资热情， 是重要的主题投资机会。 减肥代谢领域创新药催化剂众多，长效注射制剂和口服脂质体潜力标的 值得关注，如恒瑞正在研发月注射和周口服制剂，博瑞具备超长效 Amily 潜力。 自免疫领域关注口服药物和超长效双抗，亿方、海思科、和美、康诺亚 和全性生物值得关注，全性生物与罗氏和 Windward 达成合作，康诺亚 的 TSL PL 13 抗体具有超长效特性。 Q&A 过去几年通缩环境下部分消费医疗公司价格已经触底，通过销售渠道调整或战 略方法重新制定，有望在 2026 年恢复正增长。一季度可能逐步体现部分公司 的弱复苏，如 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of commercial health insurance is supported by favorable policies, with significant potential for capital inflow. Since 2009, policies have continuously supported the establishment of a multi-level medical security system and the development of commercial health insurance. The sharing of medical insurance data with commercial insurance companies is entering a practical phase, which is expected to improve the insurance landscape [2][28] - The commercial health insurance sector is projected to reach a compensation scale of approximately 471.57 billion yuan by 2030 under neutral expectations, indicating substantial potential for the medical industry [31][32] Summary by Sections Part 1: Commercial Health Insurance is Flourishing, Compensation Growth is Expected - The demand side emphasizes the impact of premium pricing and the insurance needs of patients with pre-existing conditions and the elderly. The increase in disposable income and policies allowing the use of personal medical insurance accounts for purchasing health insurance are expected to enhance insurance uptake [11][12][29] - The supply side highlights the importance of product design in health management, special drug coverage, and deductible settings. Enhancements in these areas can attract more policyholders and improve profitability [20][21][28] Part 2: Current Situation: Insufficient Motivation for Innovative Drug and Device Use - The DRG payment system has reduced the motivation for hospitals to use innovative drugs and devices, necessitating the exploration of alternative payment sources. High-level hospitals face greater pressure under the DRG system, which may hinder the adoption of innovative treatments [35][39] Part 3: Commercial Insurance Development Benefits Innovative Drugs and DTP Pharmacies - The commercial health insurance sector is increasingly covering innovative drugs, with payments rising from 1.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 2.2 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 27.8%. The penetration rate for commercial health insurance in the innovative drug market remains low, indicating significant room for growth [67][68] - DTP pharmacies are emerging as a crucial channel for the distribution of innovative drugs, providing a pathway for patients to access high-value medications outside of traditional hospital settings [76][80] Part 4: Innovative Devices May Benefit from Commercial Insurance Development - Innovative medical devices, particularly those not fully covered by insurance, are expected to benefit from commercial insurance. The report suggests that high-value medical devices and certain surgical procedures may gain traction in the commercial insurance market [4][81] Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with rich pipelines in innovative drugs, such as Heng Rui Medicine and BeiGene, as well as DTP pharmacies and TPA (Third Party Administrator) companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the growth of commercial health insurance [4][81]

Core Insights - The report by Galaxy Securities highlights that the strong rise of the innovative drug sector in 2025 is a result of the synergy between policy, industry, demand, and globalization [1] - The pharmaceutical "new" assets remain a long-term investment direction, encompassing innovative drugs, innovative devices, and medical AI [1] - The policy environment is expected to continue driving innovation and transformation in the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 [1] Investment Opportunities - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to see a rebound in 2026 after recent adjustments, with valuations having returned to relatively low levels [1] - Investment strategies should focus on hard technology in pharmaceuticals and incremental opportunities in niche segments [1] - Recommended areas for investment include innovative drugs (leading BIC and FIC pipelines), innovative devices (imaging, high-value consumables, consumer devices), and medical AI [1] Market Trends - There is an expectation of recovery in pharmaceutical consumption and growth in independent third-party ICL [1]

Group 1: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry is expected to see an annual new installed capacity of no less than 120GW during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with offshore wind power expected to reach at least 15GW, representing more than double the growth compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The release of the "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" and the recovery of wind turbine bidding prices to the range of 1500-1600 RMB/KW have alleviated pressures in the industry chain, with significant recovery in gross margins for wind turbine manufacturing expected by 2026 [1] - The profitability of component segments is also anticipated to remain at a high level [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with breakthroughs in key technologies such as anion regulation to solve the "solid-solid contact" issue [1] - Chery Automobile showcased a solid-state battery module with an energy density of 600Wh/kg and plans to conduct vehicle validation by 2027 [1] - Guoxuan High-Tech has initiated the design of a 2GWh production line and is in the pilot production stage, with leading companies like CATL expected to improve profitability, benefiting equipment manufacturers with core technological capabilities during the upcoming mass production window [1] Group 3: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to focus on research and innovation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with advancements in artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing significantly enhancing new drug development speed and outcome conversion rates [2] - The number of clinical trial registrations for domestic innovative drugs has seen a compound annual growth rate of 15%, with overseas business development accounting for 42% of the global total [2] - The industry is transitioning from "Me-too" drugs to first-in-class (FIC) and best-in-class (BIC) innovations, with several cutting-edge areas such as dual antibodies, antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), small nucleic acid drugs, and cell gene therapy (CGT) entering a harvest phase [2] Group 4: ChiNext Index Performance - As of October 23, 2025, the ChiNext Index (399006) has decreased by 0.93%, with stocks showing mixed performance [3] - Tianhua New Energy (300390) led the gains with an increase of 7.80%, while Guibao Pet (301498) experienced the largest decline at 11.47% [3] - The ChiNext ETF (平安) has seen a decrease of 0.91%, with a recent price of 1.97 RMB, and a cumulative increase of 1.17% over the past week [3] Group 5: ChiNext ETF Performance Metrics - The ChiNext ETF (平安) has achieved a net value increase of 32.85% over the past three years, ranking among the top two comparable funds [4] - The ETF's highest single-month return was 37.37%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 67.00% [4] - The ETF has a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] Group 6: Top Holdings in ChiNext Index - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index (399006) accounted for 57.49% of the total index weight [5] - The top holdings include CATL (300750), Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), and Dongfang Wealth (300059), among others [5]

Core Insights - Shanghai has approved a total of 30 domestically developed Class 1 innovative drugs from 2021 to September 2025, leading the nation in drug and medical device innovation [1] - The Shanghai government is committed to accelerating the entire chain of biopharmaceutical innovation, including basic research, incubation, clinical trials, regulatory approval, production, and application [1] - The establishment of various funds, including a 225 billion yuan biopharmaceutical industry mother fund and a 150 billion yuan future industry fund, aims to support long-term investments in the biopharmaceutical sector [3][4] Investment and Funding - The Shanghai National Investment Biopharmaceutical Industry Ecosystem Cooperation Fund was signed during the event, emphasizing the importance of patient capital in the high-risk, high-investment biopharmaceutical industry [2] - As of October 2023, the total investment decision in biopharmaceutical sub-funds by the Shanghai biopharmaceutical mother fund and other funds has reached approximately 6.6 billion yuan, with a market selection of 22 sub-funds [4] - The funds focus on innovative drug and medical device supply chains, brain-computer interfaces, synthetic biology, and other cutting-edge technologies [4] Industry Development - The Zhangjiang Pharma Valley has approved 30 Class 1 innovative drugs and 37 innovative medical devices, showcasing significant progress in the biopharmaceutical sector [9] - The Shanghai region has attracted over 50% of the capital for the biopharmaceutical industry, facilitating both research and commercialization efforts [9] - The connection between original innovation and application is emphasized, with institutions acting as bridges to transition basic research into viable drug products [10] Future Directions - The focus for the next 5-10 years will be on transforming original innovation capabilities into drug forms, which is seen as a critical development direction [10] - A comprehensive service center has been established to support the entire process from idea generation to approval and industrialization [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the new guidelines issued by the National Financial Supervision Administration aimed at promoting high-quality development in health insurance, emphasizing the integration of new medical technologies, drugs, and devices into commercial insurance coverage by 2030 [2][14]. Group 1: Overview of the Health Insurance Landscape - China's medical security system is structured into three layers: basic medical insurance, personal out-of-pocket expenses, and commercial health insurance [3]. - As of the end of 2024, the basic medical insurance covers 1.327 billion people, maintaining a coverage rate of 95% [4]. - The total income of the basic medical insurance fund is 3.49 trillion yuan, with expenditures of 2.98 trillion yuan, resulting in a cumulative balance of 3.86 trillion yuan [5]. - The payment levels for employee medical insurance cover approximately 85% of inpatient costs, while resident medical insurance covers about 69% [6]. - Basic medical insurance is the primary payment pool but has strict entry mechanisms for innovative drugs and devices due to sustainability concerns [7]. Group 2: Personal Out-of-Pocket Expenses - Despite broad coverage, patients still face significant out-of-pocket expenses for high-value medical consumables and innovative devices [8]. - Medical assistance covers 79.16 million people with expenditures of 79.2 billion yuan, but its scale is limited [9]. Group 3: Commercial Health Insurance - In 2024, the total premium income for commercial health insurance reached 977.4 billion yuan, accounting for about 17% of the national insurance market [10]. - The claims expenditure was 405.2 billion yuan, representing around 5% of the total resident medical expenses of approximately 850 billion yuan [10]. - The growth of products like "惠民保" and "百万医疗险" is expanding coverage for specific diseases and rare conditions, although overall coverage remains weak [11]. - Commercial insurance is becoming an important supplement between basic medical insurance and personal payments, facilitating the entry of innovative devices into the payment system [12]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The new guidelines signal an expansion of payment coverage, innovative payment methods, and deeper industry collaboration [14]. - The inclusion of new devices in insurance coverage indicates that commercial health insurance will no longer be limited to traditional disease coverage [18]. - The exploration of "pay-for-performance" models provides new collaboration opportunities for medical device companies [19]. - Group health insurance may become an efficient funding channel, while individual health insurance is emerging as a primary means for covering specific diseases and rare devices [20][21]. Group 5: Market Challenges - The low claims payout levels and insufficient coverage perception pose challenges for commercial health insurance [24]. - The imbalance in product structure leads to inadequate coverage for chronic disease populations, which are key users of innovative devices [27]. - There is a lack of data sharing among the three medical sectors, making it difficult for insurance companies to obtain real-world efficacy evidence for accurate pricing [28]. Group 6: Insights for the Medical Device Industry - Commercial insurance is positioned as a "pre-payment" avenue for innovative devices, allowing for a pathway of "insurance coverage first, data accumulation, then entry into basic medical insurance" [30]. - Data will be a crucial bargaining chip in collaborations with commercial insurance, emphasizing the need for real-world evidence to demonstrate product efficacy [31]. - Group insurance and "惠民保" are identified as key entry points for promoting device applications [32]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The high-quality development of health insurance represents a transformation in the insurance industry and a rebalancing of China's medical security system [33]. - The evolving payment structure will significantly impact the clinical implementation and market penetration of innovative devices [34].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Focus - The report focuses on the pharmaceutical industry, specifically highlighting innovative drugs and contract research organizations (CXO) Core Insights and Arguments - Continuous recommendation of innovative drugs with positive growth outlook, including: - 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) - 华东医药 (East China Pharmaceutical) - 翰森制药 (Hansoh Pharmaceutical) - 贝达药业 (Betta Pharmaceuticals) - 信立泰 (Sinopharm) - 科伦药业 (Kelun Pharmaceutical) - 百利天恒 (Baili Tianheng) - 荣昌生物 (Rongchang Biopharmaceutical) - 科伦博泰生物 (Kelun Biotech) - 石药集团 (Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group) [1][1][1] - Recommendation of CXOs showing signs of profit growth turning points, including: - 药明生物 (WuXi Biologics) - 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) [1][1] - Positive outlook on domestic replacement of innovative medical devices, specifically: - 惠泰医疗 (Huitai Medical) [1] - Anticipation of recovery in consumer healthcare, particularly: - 爱尔眼科 (Aier Eye Hospital) [1] Other Important Points - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of recommending companies that are positioned well within the pharmaceutical sector, particularly those that are expected to benefit from market dynamics and growth opportunities - The focus on innovative drugs and CXOs indicates a strategic approach to capitalize on emerging trends in the healthcare market - The mention of domestic replacements in medical devices suggests a shift towards local production and innovation, which could impact market competition and supply chains - The recovery in consumer healthcare points to potential growth areas as the market stabilizes post-pandemic

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Morgan Healthcare Stock A (001766) reported a profit of 56.7046 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1457 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 11.84% during the reporting period [2]. Fund Performance - As of April 24, the fund's net asset value growth rates were as follows: 11.85% over the last three months, 7.74% over the last six months, 9.35% over the last year, and -22.62% over the last three years, ranking 30/54, 18/54, 23/54, and 34/46 among comparable funds respectively [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last three years was -0.2714, ranking 36/44 among comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the last three years was 48.16%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2021 at 27.96% [10]. Fund Holdings and Strategy - The fund had an average stock position of 84.34% over the last three years, with a peak of 92.01% at the end of Q1 2025 and a low of 77.64% at the end of Q3 2021 [13]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 530 million yuan [14]. - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten positions including companies such as Aier Eye Hospital, Zai Lab, and Hengrui Medicine [17]. Management Commentary - The fund manager indicated a strong belief in the value creation potential of innovative drug and device companies that leverage China's engineering and scientific talent, leading to significant investments in globally competitive firms [2].