据介绍，印尼上半年贸易顺差扩大主要受出口增长带动。2025年上半年印尼出口总额为1354.1亿美元， 同比增长7.70%；进口总额为1159.4亿美元，同比增长5.25%。 在主要贸易伙伴方面，美国、印度和菲律宾是印尼上半年前三大出口目的地；中国仍为最大进口来源 国，其次为澳大利亚和巴西。 统计还显示，2025年6月，印尼实现贸易顺差41.1亿美元，为连续第62个月录得顺差。其中，6月出口总 额为234.4亿美元，同比增长11.29%；进口总额为193.3亿美元，同比增长4.28%。(完) 中新社雅加达8月1日电 (记者 李志全)印度尼西亚中央统计局8月1日发布数据显示，2025年上半年，印 尼实现贸易顺差达194.8亿美元，较去年同期增长25%。 印尼中央统计局副局长普吉在当天举行的新闻发布会上表示，贸易顺差主要由非油气产品拉动，相关顺 差达283.1亿美元；而油气产品则出现88.3亿美元的逆差。顺差商品主要包括动植物油脂、矿物燃料及钢 铁，逆差商品主要为机械设备及零配件、电机及电子设备、塑料及其制品。 ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？ ——《见微知著》第二十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05-12） 出口为何展现韧性？——2025年4月进出口 数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税压力将如何扰动出口？——2025年3月 进出口数据点评（2025-04-14） 要点 核心观点： 当前美国对自华进口关税税率整体水平大概在 47.1%-49.9%。在新关税水平下，我 国产品仍然具备较强的价格优势。美自华进口单价低于自全世界（除中国外）进口 单价的产品种类占比小幅下降 7.9 个百分点至 54.5%。毛毯、动植物油脂、人造纤 维针织品、吸尘器、椅子、手套、壁挂式空调、鞋靴、运动用品、床上用品等细分 产品的价格优势或面临挑战。 由于前期积压订单释放以及美国进入圣诞备货 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall impact of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy is expected to be minimal due to the low GDP and export shares of both countries [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely conclude this year, leading to increased focus on post-war reconstruction and its implications for global commodity and financial markets [1]. - It highlights that Russia's economy has become increasingly reliant on energy exports due to the war, with significant changes in export structures and market dynamics [5][9]. - The report suggests that while short-term energy prices have not yet reflected recent developments, mid-term prices may face downward pressure as Russia resumes pre-conflict export levels [19][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Impact on Global Economy - Russia's GDP in 2023 is projected at $6.45 trillion, accounting for 3.51% of global GDP, while Ukraine's GDP is only $622 million, representing 0.34% [2]. - The export totals for Russia and Ukraine are $424.22 billion (1.78% of global exports) and $36.04 billion (0.15% of global exports) respectively, indicating limited global economic influence [2]. 2. Impact on Global Energy Prices - In 2022, Russia's mineral fuels and oils exports totaled $358.02 billion, making up 61% of its total exports, a significant increase from 2021 [5]. - Russia's share of global oil exports in 2023 is 10.5%, ranking second globally, while its natural gas exports accounted for 2.16% in 2021, ranking tenth [9][13]. - The report notes a substantial decrease in the EU's dependency on Russian oil and gas, with Russian oil imports dropping from 25.7% in 2020 to 3.37% in 2023 [15]. 3. Impact on Global Grain and Oilseed Prices - Ukraine's grain exports in 2023 are estimated at $8.306 billion, down 30% from 2021, while oilseed exports are at $5.648 billion, down 18% [23]. - The report indicates that Ukraine's share of global grain exports was 8.53% before the conflict, ranking second globally, but is expected to face challenges in recovery post-war [24]. - It predicts that as Ukraine gradually restores agricultural production, there will be significant potential for increased exports of grains and oilseeds in the mid-term [25]. 4. Impact on Global Financial Markets - The report notes a strong performance in European and Russian financial markets following the expectation of conflict resolution, with the Russian RTS index rising over 16% [35]. - It anticipates further appreciation of the ruble and euro, while the US dollar index may face downward pressure, potentially dropping to 105 [40].