Core Insights - Bosnia's trade deficit continues to expand despite growth in both imports and exports during the first seven months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Trade Data - Bosnia's import value from January to July 2023 reached 18.43 billion marks, while exports totaled 10.25 billion marks, resulting in a trade deficit of 8.17 billion marks [1] - In comparison, during the same period in 2022, imports were 17.75 billion marks, exports were 9.74 billion marks, and the trade deficit was 8.01 billion marks [1] Group 2: Major Import and Export Categories - Major imports included mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (2.14 billion marks), nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery (1.63 billion marks), and vehicles and parts (1.56 billion marks) [1] - Key exports comprised electrical machinery and equipment (937.2 million marks), nuclear reactors and machinery (826.3 million marks), and furniture and bedding (697.9 million marks) [1] Group 3: Trade Partners - Main export destinations were Croatia (1.82 billion marks), Germany (1.46 billion marks), and Serbia (1.09 billion marks) [2] - Major import sources included Croatia (3.44 billion marks), Serbia (2.44 billion marks), and Slovenia (1.54 billion marks) [2] Group 4: Economic Commentary - Economist Milenko Stanic highlighted that the trade deficit has been a persistent issue, increasing from just over 7 billion marks a decade ago to over 12 billion marks in recent years, with imports accelerating [2] - The inflation rate in Bosnia for the first half of the year was reported at 4.6%, which has significantly impacted the prices of imported and exported goods [2]

2025.07. 09 本文字数：1537，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 近日，日本内阁府公布的5月景气动向指数显示，对经济形势的总体评估自2020年7月以来首次转为"恶 化"，上个月为"止跌"。从定义上来说，这表明日本经济处于衰退局面的可能性很高。 此前，日本今年一季度经济数据已拉响警报。日本政府发布的数据显示，日本2025年一季度实际GDP比 上季度（环比）减少0.2%，换算成年率（年化）为下降0.7%。这是日本GDP四个季度来首次呈现环比负 增长。 野村综合研究所首席经济学家木内登英曾表示，美国政府关税政策的影响"可能在二季度更加显著，届时 将进一步把日本经济推向衰退"。 据央视新闻报道，7日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂的信件，宣布美国将 自2025年8月1日起对所有日本输美产品征收25%的关税。 日本经济拉响警报（来源：新华社资料图） 具体数值显示，反映当前经济状况的指数为115.9，环比下降0.1个百分点。这是两个月以来再次下降。 在构成该指数的10个项目中，有5个项目是负面因素。其中，出口及批发销售额是主要负面因素。此外， 分析认为，特朗普政府的关税政策 ...

Group 1 - Japan's household consumption showed the fastest growth in nearly three years in May, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [5] - The Cabinet Office's May economic index assessment turned negative for the first time since July 2020, suggesting a high likelihood of recession [1] - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the first negative growth in four quarters [1] Group 2 - The current economic index stands at 115.9, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point decline, with five out of ten components showing negative factors [3] - Japan's exports fell to 8.135 trillion yen in May, a 1.7% year-on-year decrease, marking the first decline in eight months [3] - The decline in exports was primarily driven by significant drops in automotive exports (down 6.9%), steel exports (down 20.6%), and mineral fuel exports (down 50.7%) [3] Group 3 - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, the largest decline in 20 months, despite a nominal wage increase of 1.0% [4] - The consumer price index in Japan rose by 4.0% in May, remaining above 4% for six consecutive months [4] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, indicating a potential return of market volatility [4] Group 4 - The increase in household spending in May was driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and travel, surpassing economists' expectations [5] - Consumer spending accounts for over half of Japan's economic output, making it a crucial indicator of economic vitality [5] - The sustainability of this consumption growth is contingent on real wage increases, as ongoing inflation could erode household purchasing power [5]

Group 1 - Japan's economy is facing significant challenges, with exports dropping by 1.7% year-on-year to 81,350 billion yen, marking an eight-month low [1] - The trade deficit has widened to 637.6 billion yen, indicating a potential technical recession as it has recorded deficits for two consecutive months [2] - The first quarter GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decline of 0.7%, raising concerns about economic confidence [2] Group 2 - The decline in exports is heavily influenced by the U.S. tariff policies, which have imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and parts, and a 10% tariff on other Japanese goods [4] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 11.1%, while exports to China decreased by 8.8%, highlighting the adverse effects of these tariffs on Japan's export market [4] - The Japanese government attempted to negotiate a new trade agreement with the U.S. in June 2025, but these talks ended without success, leading to a restoration of the 10% tariff to 24% on July 9, 2025 [5] Group 3 - Japan's economic issues are compounded by structural weaknesses, including high inflation that erodes purchasing power and insufficient domestic demand [5] - The over-reliance on exports has left Japan vulnerable to international market fluctuations, exacerbated by global economic downturns such as U.S.-China trade tensions and a sluggish European economy [5] - The current economic situation reflects deeper contradictions in Japan's trade strategy and domestic economic structure, necessitating significant reforms to navigate future challenges [7]

Group 1 - Japan's economy is facing significant challenges due to tariffs imposed by the United States, with May exports declining by 1.7% year-on-year, marking the first drop in eight months, and exports to the U.S. falling by 11.1% [1] - The trade deficit for Japan reached 637.6 billion yen in May, continuing a trend of deficits for the second consecutive month, with exports to the U.S. and China both experiencing notable declines [1] - The decline in exports, particularly in automobiles, steel, and mineral fuels, raises concerns about a potential technical recession in Japan's economy for the second quarter [1] Group 2 - Japan's government is under pressure to reach a trade agreement with the Trump administration by July 9, or face a 24% "reciprocal tariff" [3] - The automotive sector is crucial for Japan's export-driven economy, with automotive exports accounting for approximately 28% of the total goods exported to the U.S. last year [3] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the economic impact of tariffs, with the first quarter showing a 0.2% contraction in real GDP, and there is uncertainty regarding future interest rate hikes due to the ongoing tariff situation [3][4]

关税，对日本的经济造成重大打击！ 6月18日最新披露的数据显示，在美国关税冲击下，日本5月份出口额同比下降1.7%，为八个月来首次下滑，这加剧了日本经济陷入技术性衰退的担忧。数据显 示，5月份，日本对美国的出口同比下降11.1%。 同日，日本财务省公布的贸易统计初值显示，日本5月的贸易逆差为6376亿日元，系连续第二个月呈现逆差。 当地时间周二（17日），美国总统特朗普称，日本在贸易谈判中表现"强硬"。特朗普补充道："但最终我们会发函说明'要么接受条件，要么终止贸易'。不过达成协 议仍有希望。"此前一天，日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普在加拿大举行会谈，但未就关税谈判达成共识。 日本央行行长植田和男近日曾警告称，关税可能通过多种渠道对日本经济产生影响。植田和男称，将密切关注广泛的指标来评估经济和物价走势。 关税冲击日本经济 日本财务省周三（18日）公布的数据显示，日本5月份出口出现八个月来的首次下降，表明美国的全面关税正威胁着该国脆弱的经济。 数据显示，5月份，日本出口总额同比下降1.7%，而4月份的出口同比增长了2%。日本5月出口下降主要受汽车、钢铁和矿物燃料拖累。具体来看，日本5月对美国 的出口同比下降11 ...

Group 1 - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower but experienced a subsequent rally, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 0.2% to its highest point since February 21 [3][5] - Notable individual stocks that performed well include Prince Holdings, Taisei Corporation, and Nintendo [4] - The KOSPI index in South Korea increased by 0.45%, reaching 2963.63 points [5] Group 2 - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight months, with a year-on-year decline of 1.7% in May, impacted by tariffs and weak demand for automobiles, steel, and mineral fuels [7] - Imports also decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, with significant reductions in crude oil and coal imports [7] - Japan's trade balance showed a deficit for the second consecutive month, with the deficit amounting to 637.6 billion yen [7] - Exports to the U.S. dropped by 11.1% year-on-year, marking a 4.7% decline in Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. for the first time in five months [7] - Concerns are rising about a potential technical recession in Japan if the economy continues to contract in the second quarter, amid weak domestic consumption and inflation outpacing wage growth [7] Group 3 - Ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the U.S. have not reached a consensus, with both sides agreeing to further discussions [7] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions in the next fiscal year [7] - Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, indicated that the Bank of Japan is likely to keep interest rates unchanged due to global economic uncertainties [8] - The current economic environment is complicated by rising food prices, global trade tensions, and oil price fluctuations, although there is a positive cycle forming between wage increases and stable prices domestically [8]

个股方面，王子控股、大成建设、任天堂等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王子控股 | 722.2 | 4.12% | 7326亿 | | 3861.T | | | | | 大成建设 | 8280.0 | 3.37% | 15166亿 | | 1801.T | | | | | 任天堂 | 12850.0 | 3.30% | 16.69万亿 | | 7974.T | | | | | 东京煤气 | 4865.0 | 2.55% | 18054亿 | | 9531.T | | | | | 鹿岛建设 | 3746.0 | 2.52% | 19803亿 | | 1812.T | | | | | CYBERAGENT | 1545.5 | 2.38% | 7828亿 | | 4751.T | | | | | 斯巴鲁 | 2565.5 | 2.21% | 18807亿 | | 7270.T | | | | | 东京建筑 | 2712.5 | 2.11% | 5674亿 | | 8804.T | | | | | 保谷光学 | 16905.0 ...

Group 1 - Bosnia's total imports in the first five months of this year reached approximately 13 billion marks, an increase from 12.44 billion marks in the same period last year [1] - Exports during the same period amounted to 7.31 billion marks, up from 6.9 billion marks year-on-year, resulting in a trade deficit of 5.69 billion marks [1] - The total trade volume exceeded 20 billion marks, indicating significant growth in both imports and exports [1] Group 2 - The main imported goods included mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (1.52 billion marks), machinery and parts (1.14 billion marks), and railway vehicles and parts (1.08 billion marks) [1] - The highest export categories were machinery and parts (590 million marks), furniture and related products (504.4 million marks), and mineral fuels and oils (489.6 million marks) [1] - Major import sources were Croatia, Serbia, Germany, Slovenia, Italy, and Austria, while key export destinations included Croatia, Germany, Serbia, Austria, Italy, and Montenegro [1] Group 3 - The growth in trade volume is attributed to inflation increasing the value of imports and exports, along with rising disposable income and consumption due to wage and remittance increases [2] - The first growth in EU industrial production in two years has also contributed to increased export demand [2] - This growth trend is expected to continue until the end of the year, barring any significant impacts from potential trade wars [2]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 地方政府如何应对关税冲击？ 各省对美贸易依存度如何？ 2024 年我国对美出口总额为 37343 亿元人民币，占出口总额比重为 14.7%。 分区域来看，我国对美出口区域集中度较高：2024 年广东、浙江、江苏分 别对美出口 9490 亿元、6316 亿元、5906 亿元，上海、山东、福建对美出 口均超 2000 亿元，四川、河南均超 1000 亿元。前 8 大对美出口省份占我 国对美出口总额的比重达 85%。 以对美出口总额/出口总额、对美出口总额/GDP 两大指标观察各省对美出 口的依存度：山西、河南、四川、福建区域 2024 年对美出口总额/出口总 额均大于 18%，对美出口的依存度较高；广东、浙江、江苏、上海等区域 2024 年对美出口总额/出口总额在 15-16%区间附近，在全国属于中游水平， 但其对美出口体量大，且对美出口总额占 GDP 的比重相对高。 对比 2018 年及 2024 年全国及各省对美出口总额/出口总额数据可见，在 2018 年以来中美贸易摩擦的背景下，我国通过系统性的战略调整，如新兴 市场开拓、扩大国内消费市场、产能转移等应对手 ...