东海证券指出，基础化工行业供给侧有望结构性优化。国内政策频繁提及"反内卷"要求，海外因原料成 本上涨及亚洲产能冲击，欧美化工企业出现关停、产能退出事件。短期地缘摩擦增加海外供应不确定 性，长期看中国凭借成本优势和技术实力正填补国际供应链空白，有望重塑全球化工格局。 截至2026年1月8日10:22，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌0.83%。成分股光威复材领涨10.82%，彤程新 材上涨10.01%，中简科技上涨6.70%；万华化学领跌，藏格矿业、亚钾国际跟跌。 方正证券指出，25Q3以来全球制造业景气回暖，但化工品PPI同比走弱，需求侧国内地产处于周期底 部，新能源车销量维持高增长，社零增速稳中向好。供给侧中国已成为全球化工行业领导者，而欧盟区 制造业和化工业产能利用率下行，国内相对稳定；化工大宗价差短期仍在历史底部，资源型企业ROE相 对高位。市场风格上，景气子板块如氟化工、磷肥钾肥等表现良好，穿插事故驱动的小品种涨价行情， 主题投资方面机器人、固态电池、AI等科技主题映射的膜材、树脂板块下半年表现出色，供给侧反内 卷行情此起彼伏，基化整体估值明显修复。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业 ...

东吴证券发布研报称，预计2025-2026年磷矿石新增需求482、612万吨，动储领域为主力。磷矿规划产 能与实际落地产能存在较大差距，主要原因是产能需要爬坡时间，且供给受环保安全事件影响程度较 大。看好兼具磷矿资源与磷酸铁产能的一体化企业。 截至2025年12月12日 10:15，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌0.77%。成分股方面涨跌互现，蓝晓科技 领涨4.56%，杭氧股份上涨2.61%，和邦生物上涨1.36%；多氟多领跌，天赐材料、新宙邦跟跌。 伴随2025年以来行业资本开支增速显著下降，叠加"反内卷"有望助力供给端协同及落后产能出清，而内 需有望进一步复苏及出口亚非拉等支撑需求，大宗化工品有望逐步复苏。出口方面，国内化工品具备成 本优势和性价比，国内轮胎依托性价比优势仍有望持续提升全球份额。高股息资产方面，伴随资本开支 下降等，主动分红意愿和能力或提升，磷资源有望维持至少3年高景气。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金（013527）关注化工板块投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日 ...

数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、天赐材料、藏格矿业、巨化股份、华鲁恒升、多氟多、恒力石化、宝丰能源、云天化，前十大权重 股合计占比45.41%。 2025年12月4日盘中，化工板块震荡下行，截至10:39，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌0.51%。成分股 藏格矿业领涨，金发科技、兴发集团跟涨；新凤鸣领跌，彤程新材、恒力石化跟跌。 国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金 兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息 的优势。重点关注石油化工、煤化工、有机硅、磷化工、草甘膦等。 有机构分析认为，化工行业供给端约束将加强，产能过剩格局有望扭转，景气或复苏。当前化工板块估 值仍具性价比，细分化工指数市净率位于近10年相对低位。2026年化工行业或迎周期拐点。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a dual bottom in valuation and profitability, with signs of recovery in profit margins and a potential upward trend in the economic cycle driven by demand recovery and resource supply contraction [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 3, 2025, the chemical sector index rose by 0.87%, with notable gains from stocks such as Hangzhou Oxygen Plant (up 4.48%) and Yara International (up 4.42%) [1]. - The basic chemical sector's net profit increased by 7.45% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a recovery trend despite mixed performance across sub-sectors [1]. - The overall chemical industry remains at a low level of prosperity, but a gradual improvement in profit margins is becoming evident [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to benefit from reduced supply-side pressures and a global monetary easing environment, particularly with the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate downstream demand [1]. - The focus on "anti-involution" policies is crucial as multiple sub-industries face competitive pressures, and the industry is likely to accelerate the release of high-performance new materials driven by AI demand [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors can track the chemical sector through the Jia Shi Chemical ETF (159129), which closely follows the China Securities Index for the chemical industry [2]. - There are also opportunities for off-market investors to engage with the chemical sector via the Chemical ETF Connect Fund (013527) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with the fertilizer and phosphate sectors showing positive growth, while the oil and basic chemical sectors face challenges due to declining oil prices and historical low profit margins [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the chemical industry, particularly the fertilizer and phosphate sectors, has seen significant gains, with the CSI sub-industry index rising by 0.70% [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the oil and basic chemical sectors reported a year-on-year net profit change of -24.8% and +5.3%, respectively, indicating a decline in the oil sector due to lower oil prices, while the basic chemical sector benefited from capacity expansion and a slight recovery in product demand [1]. - The gross profit margins for the oil and basic chemical sectors in Q3 2025 were recorded at 14.7% and 17.6%, respectively, both of which are at historical low levels [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - According to China Galaxy, the chemical industry is expected to see a contraction in capital expenditure starting in 2024, influenced by the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacities, which may lead to a tightening of supply [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which, combined with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is anticipated to open up demand space for chemical products [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to stabilize, with strong policy expectations potentially catalyzing a cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical index account for 44.83% of the index, indicating concentrated investment opportunities in leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Yalv Co [2]. - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF linked fund (013527) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has faced declining profits for three consecutive years since 2022, with some sectors experiencing intense competition and overall losses. However, there are signs of potential recovery driven by industry self-regulation and improved supply-demand balance, which may enhance profitability [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of November 20, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index rose by 0.17%, with notable increases in stocks such as Hongda Co. (+8.66%), Tongcheng New Materials (+4.35%), and Salt Lake Co. (+3.71%) [1]. - The basic chemical industry's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently close to the bottom levels observed in 2019 and 2024, indicating that the valuation remains low [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Huatai Securities predicts that the basic chemical sector may see an upward trend starting in 2026, suggesting a focus on resilient domestic and foreign demand as well as improved market conditions [1]. - Since June 2025, there has been a significant decline in capital expenditure growth within the industry, which, combined with self-regulation efforts, is expected to facilitate supply-side coordination and the elimination of outdated capacity [1]. - Domestic demand is anticipated to recover further, supported by exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, leading to a gradual recovery in bulk chemicals [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 44.83% of the index, with major players including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co. [2]. - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF (159129), which closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index [2][3].