东吴证券发布研报称，预计2025-2026年磷矿石新增需求482、612万吨，动储领域为主力。磷矿规划产 能与实际落地产能存在较大差距，主要原因是产能需要爬坡时间，且供给受环保安全事件影响程度较 大。看好兼具磷矿资源与磷酸铁产能的一体化企业。 截至2025年12月12日 10:15，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌0.77%。成分股方面涨跌互现，蓝晓科技 领涨4.56%，杭氧股份上涨2.61%，和邦生物上涨1.36%；多氟多领跌，天赐材料、新宙邦跟跌。 伴随2025年以来行业资本开支增速显著下降，叠加"反内卷"有望助力供给端协同及落后产能出清，而内 需有望进一步复苏及出口亚非拉等支撑需求，大宗化工品有望逐步复苏。出口方面，国内化工品具备成 本优势和性价比，国内轮胎依托性价比优势仍有望持续提升全球份额。高股息资产方面，伴随资本开支 下降等，主动分红意愿和能力或提升，磷资源有望维持至少3年高景气。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金（013527）关注化工板块投资机遇。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The average price of broiler chicks in major production areas in October is 3.35 CNY per chick, down 19.3% year-on-year but up 2.4% month-on-month, indicating a challenging environment for white feather chicken farming [1] - The average price of live chickens is 6.93 CNY per kilogram, down 6.8% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, with a loss of 1.78 CNY per chick in the farming sector [1] - The supply of parent stock broiler chicks is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025 due to a significant decrease in overseas imports, which will also impact the supply of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [1] Group 2: Yellow Feather Chicken Insights - The average price of fast-growing yellow chickens in October is 4.82 CNY per jin, down 6.4% year-on-year and 10.9% month-on-month, while the average price of Xueshan grass chickens is 7.68 CNY per jin, down 13% year-on-year and 14.2% month-on-month [2] - Despite a slight decline in demand post-holidays, yellow chicken prices remain stable, and profitability in the farming sector is still favorable [2] - Major companies have reduced their yellow chicken production costs, with Wens' cost at approximately 5.8 CNY per jin and Lihua's potentially below 5.7 CNY per jin [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for quality parent stock broiler chicks is expected to remain strong in 2025, despite an increase in imports of grandparent stock chickens in 2024 [3] - The current low inventory of parent stock chickens and ongoing industry losses are setting the stage for future price increases in yellow chickens [3] - The market for fresh yellow feather chickens is anticipated to have significant growth potential due to changing consumer habits and economic recovery [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the fundamentals are not optimistic. Supply pressure and high inventory are the key factors suppressing prices, and there are no signs of a turnaround in the short term. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [3][67]. - For glass, the fundamentals are neutral. Policy and news have a significant impact on the FG2601 contract. The glass futures price in the fourth quarter may show a volatile trend, with the price center likely to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [4][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Soda Ash - In Q1 2025, the soda ash price fluctuated, with a decline in the second half of December due to factory maintenance and a rebound later as enterprises resumed production. In February, the price first dropped and then rebounded. In March, the price fell despite improved fundamentals [6]. - In Q2 2025, the soda ash price showed a smooth downward trend due to increased supply and slower demand growth [7]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose and then fell. In July, the price increased with the rise of coking coal futures. In August, supply reached a historical high and demand was weak, leading to a price drop. In September, the price fluctuated, and it was relatively firm before the National Day due to downstream restocking [7]. Glass - In Q1 2025, the glass futures price trended downward. In January, the futures were weak but the spot price rebounded. In February, the price continued to decline due to high inventory and slow recovery of processing enterprises. In March, the price first dropped to a low and then rebounded, but it couldn't be sustained [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, the glass futures price showed a smooth downward trend due to poor macro - environment and low real - estate demand. In June, the price rebounded due to the rise of coal prices [10]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and then fell back. In September, the price rebounded with the arrival of the consumption peak season [10]. 3.2 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis Price and Spread - In Q3 2025, the spot price of soda ash in various regions first rose and then fell, and the futures price also showed a similar trend. The spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, and the basis decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [13]. Profit, Production, and Capacity Utilization - By September 25, 2025, the ammonia - soda production profit was - 37.2 yuan/ton, and the combined - soda production profit was - 77.5 yuan/ton, both showing a decline compared to the end of June. However, the capacity utilization rate remained high, above 80% in Q3 and above 85% in September. The weekly production was mostly above 700,000 tons, and the monthly production in September increased compared to August [17]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9515 million tons, a decrease of 115,400 tons compared to the end of June. The light - soda inventory was 729,100 tons, a decrease of 76,100 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory was 922,400 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was digested faster after August due to the rebound of the photovoltaic glass market and the ignition of some float glass production lines [22]. Future Capacity Expansion Plan - In the first half of 2025, new capacities of Lianyungang Alkali Plant and Hubei Shuanghuan were put into production. In the second half, there are still 3.5 million tons of capacity to be put into operation, including the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy, which was successfully ignited on September 19 and entered the commissioning stage [27]. Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: In Q3 2025, the spot price of float glass in most regions rose, but it decreased in Guangdong. The futures price also rose and then fell. The production profit of glass enterprises improved. The daily melting volume increased to 160,200 tons, and the enterprise inventory decreased. However, the deep - processing enterprise operating rate declined, and the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [29][32][33]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In Q3 2025, the photovoltaic glass price rebounded, and the daily melting volume reached 88,800 tons after a rebound. The enterprise inventory days decreased to 14.16 days. The domestic photovoltaic component installation volume and export volume showed different trends. The installation volume declined after May, and the export volume increased in August but is likely to decline after September [48][54]. - **Light - Soda Demand**: The demand for light soda is relatively stable. The PPI of glass products continued to decline, the production of synthetic detergents decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate increased steadily [60]. 3.3 Outlook and Trading Recommendations - For soda ash, the supply surplus problem may worsen in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [67]. - For glass, the daily melting volume may remain stable with possible short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [4][7]. Core Views - The company has implemented a strategic production reduction to alleviate market supply pressure, which is supported by a strong financial position with ample cash reserves [5][7]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 1.15 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to produce between 270,000 to 300,000 tons of polysilicon in Q3 2025, with an annual production forecast of 1.1 to 1.3 million tons [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.9% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 1.15 billion yuan [4]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 560 million yuan, down 64.9% year-on-year and 38.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit loss of 590 million yuan [4][5]. - The company’s polysilicon production in Q2 2025 was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 60.0% year-on-year, while sales volume was 18,000 tons, down 57.9% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s cash reserves as of June 30, 2025, totaled 12.09 billion yuan, with no interest-bearing debt, indicating a robust financial position [5]. Future Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.44 yuan in 2025, 0.50 yuan in 2026, and 0.95 yuan in 2027, reflecting a recovery trend [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be -67.3 in 2025, 59.2 in 2026, and 30.9 in 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation as earnings recover [7].

Market Overview - The market temperature indicator reflects the PE ratio percentile of corresponding indices over the past ten years, with a total value of 100% [1] - As of August 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed slight fluctuations, with the former increasing by 0.13% and the latter decreasing by 0.06% [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net capital inflows include: - Retail: 350 million - Comprehensive: 127 million - Steel: 9 million - The sectors with the highest net capital outflows are: - Electronics: -9.703 billion - Machinery: -7.311 billion - Power Equipment: -5.750 billion [2] ETF Performance - The Chemical ETF showed a 0.70% increase, with a six-month rise of 11.20% [4] - The Financial Technology ETF increased by 1.04%, with a six-month rise of 17.37% [4] - The Consumer Leader ETF had a six-month increase of 4.19% [4] Financial Technology Sector - On August 21, 2025, the Financial Technology sector was notably active, with significant gains in digital currency and cross-border payment stocks, leading to a theme index increase of over 1% [6] - The influx of incremental capital and regulatory optimizations are expected to drive the Financial Technology sector's growth [6] Chemical Sector - The Chemical sector continued its upward trend, with the industry theme index closing up over 1% on August 21, 2025 [6] - The sector is anticipated to have significant upward elasticity due to the clearing of backward production capacity and an optimized competitive landscape [6]

Core Viewpoint - The spandex industry is expected to benefit from increased downstream penetration and functional consumption trends, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.0269 million tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.21%, significantly higher than polyester and other synthetic fibers [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for spandex is primarily concentrated in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex used for clothing production in 2024. The CAGR for apparent consumption from 2020 to 2024 is projected at 9.21%, outpacing mainstream synthetic fibers like polyester [2]. - Sales in domestic apparel, footwear, and textiles are expected to grow year-on-year from 2023 to 2024, with a cumulative sales growth of 3.10% in the first half of 2025. This growth in clothing consumption is anticipated to further drive spandex demand [2]. - The emergence of trendy products such as yoga and sun-protective clothing since 2020 has significantly boosted overall spandex demand. In 2024, spandex exports are projected to reach 78,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.23%, providing strong support for spandex demand [2]. Supply Side Summary - The spandex industry is facing severe overcapacity, with negative profit margins and historically high inventory levels. In 2024, new spandex capacity is expected to increase by 135,000 tons, a year-on-year growth of 10.88%, continuing a trend of overcapacity since 2022 [3]. - The average gross profit for spandex is projected to be -5,217 yuan per ton by August 2025, indicating over two years of continuous losses. High inventory levels are affecting operational willingness, leading to a decline in overall industry operating rates compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - Some companies are beginning to clear out outdated capacity, with reports of production line shutdowns, such as Tai Guang Industry and Xiao Xing Spandex, indicating that capacity reduction is underway [3]. Market Outlook - With the ongoing capacity clearance, the supply-demand balance in the spandex market may gradually improve, allowing leading companies to benefit first. The unit costs for leading firms like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are significantly lower than the industry average, enabling them to maintain positive gross margins even in a low-demand environment [4]. - If no substantial anti-competitive policies are implemented, the spandex industry may see gradual improvement in market conditions as demand increases. The potential for capacity upgrades or clearances of older production facilities could alleviate supply pressures in the future [4]. - Recommended stocks include Huafeng Chemical, with beneficiaries including Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Taihe New Materials [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Investment Opportunities in the Paper Industry Industry Overview - The overall operating rate of the paper industry is below 2018 levels, with white paper down approximately 20%, household paper down about 19%, and packaging paper down 10-13% reflecting weak current demand [1][2] - The concentration of the paper industry is increasing, with outdated capacity mainly concentrated in corrugated paper, household paper, and some boxboard paper, accounting for about 10% [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Leading companies like Jiulong and Shanying are implementing price increases through intensive price notices, with expected continuation of this trend due to synergistic effects [1][3][12] - The double glue paper market is experiencing downward price pressure due to new capacity, but prices are expected to stabilize and recover from late August to September [1][5] - The white card paper market is facing significant impacts from new capacity, with prices at their lowest in five to ten years; large manufacturers are maintaining profitability through integrated pulp and paper operations [1][5] - The corrugated box market is nearing the end of new capacity investments, with demand still growing, and price increases observed at the end of July, improving gross margins [1][6] Future Changes and Regulations - The new national standard to be implemented in May 2025 will impose limits on paper energy consumption, particularly tightening limits for box and corrugated paper, which may accelerate the exit of outdated capacity [1][8] - Historical experiences indicate that the implementation of mandatory standards can lead to significant price increases and improved profit expectations for companies [1][8][9] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand situation in the domestic paper industry has worsened, with excess supply and significant impacts from imported paper [2] - The profitability of small manufacturers is declining, with many operating below the breakeven point, and the pressure from new capacity remains [5][10] - Large enterprises are expected to enhance their collaborative effects and cost advantages through integrated operations, which will further pressure small manufacturers [12] Administrative Measures and Their Impact - Previous administrative interventions have led to profit recovery but did not significantly increase capital expenditures (CAPEX) [9] - The current economic environment and macro background are affecting the pace of implementing new standards, but the enforcement of these standards is anticipated [8][9][11] Conclusion - The paper industry is facing a challenging environment with low operating rates and significant pressure from new capacities and imports. However, leading companies are expected to benefit from price increases and improved profitability through collaborative efforts and regulatory changes aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [1][7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" has become a necessary response for sustainable industry development, as the negative impacts of "involution" have become increasingly evident across various sectors, including automotive, photovoltaic, lithium battery, steel, and cement industries [1][2]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is particularly affected by "involution," with a profit margin of only 3.9% in Q1 this year, and a net operating cash flow of -2.376 billion yuan among eight listed passenger car companies, marking a five-year low [3]. - The China Automobile Industry Association issued an urgent call against bottomless price wars, and regulatory bodies have prohibited high-interest automotive finance practices to promote rational business operations [3]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with weaker companies likely exiting the market, reshaping the competitive landscape as a means to combat "involution" [6]. Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is facing severe challenges, with total revenue for 64 listed companies projected at 931.096 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4%, and a shift from a profit of 104.955 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 29.757 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - Leading companies like Trina Solar and LONGi Green Energy are focusing on accelerating the commercialization of high-efficiency products and responding to the construction of a unified national market [3][4]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a downturn after rapid capacity expansion, with 65 out of 104 listed companies expected to see a decline in net profits, and over 60 companies facing a year-on-year decrease in gross margins [4]. - Some companies are adjusting their expansion plans in response to market conditions, with notable projects being halted [4]. - The industry is also facing challenges in capacity clearance, with experts suggesting that the ultimate solution lies in the bankruptcy or restructuring of inefficient enterprises [7]. Group 4: Industry-Wide Responses - Various industries are signaling a move towards "anti-involution" by optimizing capacity and releasing production cuts [6]. - The photovoltaic sector is identified as having a critical window for supply-side reform between late 2025 and early 2026, necessitating market-driven mergers and technological elimination of outdated capacities [6]. - The automotive industry is also expected to see a shift towards value-driven competition, focusing on differentiated high-quality products and services to meet diverse market demands [9]. Group 5: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is viewed as a proactive approach to counter "involution," with a shift from low-price competition to high-end differentiation being essential for improving profitability [9]. - Companies in the lithium battery sector are competing through technological advancements to create unique products and establish competitive advantages [9]. - The CEO of Lantu Automotive emphasizes the importance of continuous value creation for society and users through innovation and efficiency improvements [10].

Core Insights - The phenomenon of "involution" has negatively impacted various industries, including automotive, photovoltaic, lithium battery, steel, and cement, leading to a situation where many companies are struggling with profitability despite revenue growth [1][2][3] - The concept of "anti-involution" has become a consensus, essential for sustainable industry development and breaking market segmentation [1][2] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is particularly affected, with a profit margin of only 3.9% in Q1 2024, and a net operating cash flow of -2.376 billion yuan among eight listed passenger car companies, marking a five-year low [2] - The China Automobile Industry Association has issued an urgent call against bottomless price wars, and regulatory bodies have prohibited high-interest automotive finance practices to promote rational business operations [2] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is facing severe challenges, with total revenue for 64 listed companies projected at 931.096 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4%, and a shift from a profit of 104.955 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 29.757 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - Leading companies like Trina Solar and LONGi Green Energy are focusing on commercializing high-efficiency products and responding to the construction of a unified national market [2] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a downturn, with 65 out of 104 listed companies expected to see a decline in net profits in 2024, and over 60 companies facing a year-on-year decrease in gross margins [3] - Companies are adjusting their expansion plans in response to market conditions, with some halting lithium battery projects [3] Industry-Wide Responses - Multiple industries are signaling a need for production cuts to combat "involution," with the cement industry also issuing guidelines for promoting "anti-involution" and stable growth [3][4] - A key measure in the current "anti-involution" movement is optimizing production capacity, with various sectors agreeing on price discipline and production halts [4] Challenges and Solutions - The lithium battery industry faces challenges in capacity clearance, with experts suggesting that market mechanisms must guide the exit of inefficient enterprises to achieve supply-demand balance [5] - Technological upgrades are seen as a proactive approach to "anti-involution," shifting from low-price competition to high-end differentiation [6][7] Innovation Focus - The automotive industry is encouraged to transition towards innovation-driven and value-driven development, focusing on providing high-quality, differentiated products to meet diverse consumer needs [6][7] - Companies like CATL are investing in technology and product innovation to create competitive advantages, while others are optimizing management practices to enhance product quality and efficiency [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) regarding energy conservation inspections in the polysilicon industry signals a shift towards reducing excess capacity and improving energy efficiency in the solar energy sector [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Announcement - On August 1, MIIT issued a notification detailing energy conservation inspection tasks for 41 companies in the polysilicon sector, with a deadline for reporting results by September 30, 2025 [1]. - The inspection will cover compliance with energy consumption limits, energy efficiency standards, and the elimination of outdated and high-energy-consuming production processes [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The notification has led to a rise in stock prices for several polysilicon companies, including Hongyuan Green Energy, Daqo Energy, and Xinte Energy [1]. - Securities firms view the energy conservation inspections as a signal for accelerated industry consolidation, with the potential for forced exit of non-compliant production capacities [2]. Group 3: Future Standards and Regulations - The MIIT plans to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products, aiming to lower the first-level energy consumption limit from ≤7.5 kgce/kg to ≤5 kgce/kg [3]. - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to regulate the solar industry and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacities [3].