北溪管道系统原本设计用于俄罗斯直接向德国输送天然气，总容量高达550亿立方米每年，这套海底管道绕过乌克兰等过境国，减少了地缘政治干扰。 2022年9月管道遭遇破坏后，欧洲能源市场陷入动荡，德国等国转向美国液化天然气，导致进口成本飙升两倍以上。 美国借机扩大市场份额，从2022年的700亿立方米出口量增长到2025年的1400亿立方米，占据欧洲近半壁江山。 武契奇的预测源于他对国际谈判的观察，他强调德国急需廉价俄罗斯天然气，以支撑工业竞争力。北溪2号的一条支线未遭破坏，年输气能力达275亿立方 米，若恢复运营，能显著缓解欧洲能源压力。 但武契奇断言，这一管道不会由俄罗斯主导，而是通过拍卖落入美国人之手。这一判断并非空谈，早于2024年11月，美国投资者斯蒂芬·林奇已向财政部申 请许可，意图在瑞士破产程序中竞标管道。 这种更新并非技术进步那么简单，而是美国私有化运营的体现，所有权与供应分离，符合欧盟2024年气体指令要求，避免俄罗斯一体化控制的弊端。 俄罗斯官方对出售持否定态度，克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫明确表示未闻俄气公司出售意图，外交部长拉夫罗夫也未确认相关对话。但经济压力下，俄罗斯 可能默许这一交易，以换取制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent investigation by German authorities indicates that the "Nord Stream" pipeline explosions were carried out by a Ukrainian elite unit under the direct supervision of then-Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi [1][3]. Investigation Details - Over the past three years, German police have tracked ship rentals, communication devices, and license plate information to identify Ukrainian military personnel involved in the "Nord Stream" explosions [3]. - The investigation utilized facial recognition technology and social information comparison to confirm the identities of Ukrainian deep-sea divers involved in the operation [3]. - The sabotage was reportedly ordered by high-ranking Ukrainian military officials to disrupt Russian energy revenues and its economic ties with Germany [3]. - Arrest warrants have been issued for three Ukrainian special forces soldiers and four divers involved in the operation [3]. Background on the Nord Stream Pipeline - The "Nord Stream" pipeline is a critical infrastructure for transporting natural gas from Russia to Germany and Europe, stretching 760 miles [6]. - Following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, the pipeline's fate became a focal point in discussions about Western sanctions against Russia [6]. - In September 2022, a series of explosions occurred, leading to significant methane leaks, marking it as the largest man-made greenhouse gas release in history [6]. Legal Proceedings and Diplomatic Implications - A Ukrainian commander involved in the case was apprehended in Italy, and his lawyer is arguing against extradition based on "military action immunity" [7]. - The Italian court is set to decide in December whether to extradite the suspect to Germany, with potential delays due to the suspect's hunger strike [7]. - If extradition occurs, Germany may face a diplomatic dilemma, as it is a major supporter of Ukraine, and the judicial process could exacerbate tensions between Germany and Ukraine [8].

Group 1 - The intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains relatively stable without significant escalation signs [1][3] - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50-day deadline for a peace agreement, coinciding with the EU's increased support for Ukraine [2][3] - The EU has officially taken over the task of aiding Ukraine from the U.S., indicating a potential increase in Ukraine's offensive capabilities [2] Group 2 - There is a prevailing belief among Western economists and media that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse due to sanctions [4][5] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes significant measures such as banning the use of the "Nord Stream" pipeline and setting price caps on oil imports [5] - Russia's presidential press secretary stated that the country has become immune to sanctions, suggesting that each new round of sanctions negatively impacts the imposing countries [6] Group 3 - As of June 18, 2025, over 30,000 sanctions have been imposed on Russia, with more than 92% introduced after February 2022 [6] - The Eurasian Development Bank's report predicts a slowdown in Russia's GDP growth to 1.4% in Q1 2025, down from 4.3% in 2024 [8] - Inflation in Russia is projected to be 8.9% in Q1 2025, still above the central bank's target of 4% [9] - The Russian ruble has appreciated over 20% against the dollar compared to December 2024, reaching its highest level since the second half of 2023 [10] - Russia's defense spending is expected to rise significantly to 13.5 trillion rubles in 2025 [11] Group 4 - The cumulative effect of increasing sanctions is placing significant pressure on the Russian economy, but it remains uncertain whether this will lead to a complete economic collapse [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is China's strong opposition to unilateral sanctions imposed by the EU on two Chinese financial institutions, emphasizing the lack of international legal basis and UN Security Council authorization [1] - China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to the inclusion of its financial institutions in the EU's sanctions list, indicating that it will take firm measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1] - The article highlights China's commitment to promoting political solutions to the Ukraine crisis and its stance of not providing lethal weapons to conflict parties, while urging the EU to correct its actions against Chinese institutions [1] Group 2 - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia includes measures such as banning EU operators from using the "Nord Stream" pipeline and setting a price cap for oil imports [2] - The sanctions aim to further isolate the Russian financial sector by removing 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system, targeting key sectors like banking, energy, and military industries [2] - The EU's sanctions will remain in place until the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as stated by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2]

Group 1 - The "Nord Stream" pipeline explosion remains an unresolved mystery, with no clear conclusions despite investigations by multiple countries [1][3] - The recent UN Security Council meeting highlighted differing attitudes among countries regarding the investigation, revealing underlying tensions and potential concealment [1][3] - China has taken a proactive stance in the UN, posing critical questions aimed at promoting international stability and addressing the delays in the investigation [1][6] Group 2 - Investigations by Denmark, Sweden, and Germany have faced scrutiny, particularly regarding the exclusion of Russia and the lack of transparency in the findings [5][7] - Germany has reported preliminary findings of explosive traces but has not reached definitive conclusions, while speculation about the involvement of the US and Ukraine has emerged [9][11] - The meeting underscored the contrasting positions of Western countries, with the US denying responsibility and attempting to block Russia's participation in the investigation [11][13] Group 3 - China's firm stance emphasizes the importance of energy security and the need for transparent and legitimate methods to resolve disputes in the current tense international climate [13] - China has called for Germany to expedite the release of investigation results and for relevant countries to engage with Russia to avoid political interference [13] - The insistence on transparency and cooperation from China signals a clear message to the international community about the necessity of uncovering the truth to maintain global peace and stability [13]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is planning to impose new sanctions targeting the "Nord Stream" pipeline and the price cap on Russian oil [1] Group 1 - The new sanctions are part of the EU's ongoing efforts to respond to geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns [1] - The focus on the "Nord Stream" pipeline indicates a strategic move to limit Russia's energy export capabilities [1] - The price cap on Russian oil aims to reduce revenue for Russia while maintaining global oil supply stability [1]