四季度资本市场的布局窗口已然开启，市场焦点正从估值修复转向具备明确增长逻辑的产业赛道，从"实验室"走向"应用场"的人形机器人、在深远海实现技 术突破的风电产业、价格触底反弹的光伏板块，三大赛道齐头并进，把握科技突破与能源转型中的结构性机遇，或将成为穿越市场波动的关键。 四季度资本市场的布局窗口已然开启，市场焦点正从估值修复转向具备明确增长逻辑的产业赛道。从"实验室"走向"应用场"的人形机器人、在深远海实现技 术突破的风电产业、价格触底反弹的光伏板块，三大赛道齐头并进，把握科技突破与能源转型中的结构性机遇，或将成为穿越市场波动的关键。 今年以来，光伏行业"反内卷"相关政策持续推进，产业链各条线价格自底部反弹，行业有望迎来盈利修复。 太阳能装机热潮持续 国家能源局数据显示，太阳能发电为当前新增发电装机的绝对主力。今年1—8月，全国太阳能发电装机容量新增2.31亿千瓦，同比增加9062万千瓦，占全部 新增发电装机容量的66.81%。截至8月底，太阳能发电装机容量11.2亿千瓦，首次突破11亿千瓦，同比增长48.5%，太阳能发电装机显示出强劲的增长势头。 2025年下半年，我国在光伏领域持续获得重大突破。 9月18日 ...

四季度资本市场的布局窗口已然开启，市场焦点正从估值修复转向具备明确增长逻辑的产业赛道。 从"实验室"走向"应用场"的人形机器人、在深远海实现技术突破的风电产业、价格触底反弹的光伏板 块，三大赛道齐头并进，把握科技突破与能源转型中的结构性机遇，或将成为穿越市场波动的关键。 今年以来，光伏行业"反内卷"相关政策持续推进，产业链各条线价格自底部反弹，行业有望迎来盈利修 复。 9月以来，光伏产业链个股股价表现亮眼，统计显示，光伏概念股9月平均上涨7.82%，跑赢沪深300约4 个百分点，阳光电源、聚和材料、晶盛机电9月涨幅均在50%以上。 太阳能装机热潮持续 国家能源局数据显示，太阳能发电为当前新增发电装机的绝对主力。今年1—8月，全国太阳能发电装机 容量新增2.31亿千瓦，同比增加9062万千瓦，占全部新增发电装机容量的66.81%。截至8月底，太阳能 发电装机容量11.2亿千瓦，首次突破11亿千瓦，同比增长48.5%，太阳能发电装机显示出强劲的增长势 头。 9月以来，光伏产业链价格持续走高。数据显示，截至9月25日，硅料方面，多晶硅（致密料）现货价格 为51元/千克，较上半年末上涨45.71%；硅片方面，182— ...

今年以来，光伏行业"反内卷"相关政策持续推进，产业链各条线价格自底部反弹，行业有望迎来盈利修 复。 四季度资本市场的布局窗口已然开启，市场焦点正从估值修复转向具备明确增长逻辑的产业赛道。 从"实验室"走向"应用场"的人形机器人、在深远海实现技术突破的风电产业、价格触底反弹的光伏板 块，三大赛道齐头并进，把握科技突破与能源转型中的结构性机遇，或将成为穿越市场波动的关键。 9月以来，光伏产业链个股股价表现亮眼，统计显示，光伏概念股9月平均上涨7.82%，跑赢沪深300约4 个百分点，阳光电源（300274）、聚和材料、晶盛机电（300316）9月涨幅均在50%以上。 长江证券研报认为，受到碳中和政策影响，过去10年国内光伏新增装机量保持高于全球的增速飞速增 长，带动相关光伏组件需求量快速增长。展望未来，根据彭博中性预期，2024—2025年，预计全球光伏 装机量仍然保持10%以上增速，国内需求增速或有所放缓，大约保持5%的需求增速。 产品价格底部反弹 9月以来，光伏产业链价格持续走高。数据显示，截至9月25日，硅料方面，多晶硅(致密料)现货价格为 51元/千克，较上半年末上涨45.71%；硅片方面，182—183 ...

（原标题：光伏产业链价格全面上涨 融资资金大幅加仓+机构高度关注个股名单出炉） 今年以来，光伏行业"反内卷"相关政策持续推进，产业链各条线价格自底部反弹，行业有望迎来盈利修 复。9月以来，光伏产业链个股股价表现亮眼，统计显示，光伏概念股9月平均上涨7.82%，跑赢沪深 300约4个百分点，阳光电源、聚和材料、晶盛机电9月涨幅均在50%以上。 太阳能装机热潮持续 国家能源局数据显示，太阳能发电为当前新增发电装机的绝对主力。今年1—8月，全国太阳能发电装机 容量新增2.31亿千瓦，同比增加9062万千瓦，占全部新增发电装机容量的66.81%。截至8月底，太阳能 发电装机容量11.2亿千瓦，首次突破11亿千瓦，同比增长48.5%，太阳能发电装机显示出强劲的增长势 头。 辅材环节跟涨，光伏玻璃价格也出现明显的回暖，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会数据显示，截至9月 19日当周，2.0mm和3.2mm光伏玻璃相比于7月底价格涨幅达到28.2%和15.5%。 此前光伏行业产能过度扩张，产业链价格持续3年下行，光伏企业长期处于亏损状态。今年以来，政府 相关部门多次出手治理光伏产业无序竞争，强调落后产能出清。今年7月，中央政治局 ...

今年以来，光伏行业"反内卷"相关政策持续推进，产业链各条线价格自底部反弹，行业有望迎来盈利修 复。9月以来，光伏产业链个股股价表现亮眼，统计显示，光伏概念股9月平均上涨7.82%，跑赢沪深 300约4个百分点，阳光电源、聚和材料、晶盛机电9月涨幅均在50%以上。 太阳能装机热潮持续 国家能源局数据显示，太阳能发电为当前新增发电装机的绝对主力。今年1—8月，全国太阳能发电装机 容量新增2.31亿千瓦，同比增加9062万千瓦，占全部新增发电装机容量的66.81%。截至8月底，太阳能 发电装机容量11.2亿千瓦，首次突破11亿千瓦，同比增长48.5%，太阳能发电装机显示出强劲的增长势 头。 阳光电源下半年股价表现亮眼，7月以来累计上涨139.01%，股价创下历史新高，最新市值达到3358.19 产品价格底部反弹 9月以来，光伏产业链价格持续走高。Wind数据显示，硅料方面，多晶硅（致密料）现货价最新价格为 51元/千克，较上半年末上涨45.71%；硅片方面，182—183.75mm尺寸单晶N型硅片价格为0.17美元/片， 价格较上半年末上涨超50%；电池片方面，单晶Topcon电池片（G12）价格涨幅也在40%以上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating an expectation of high-quality development driven by recent policy changes [1][11][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the need to eliminate "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the importance of improving product quality and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][11]. - Recent government meetings and discussions among industry leaders suggest a focus on sustainable development and self-regulation within the industry, which is expected to improve supply and demand dynamics, leading to price and profit recovery [2][12]. - The photovoltaic sector is currently experiencing low price levels and profitability, with expectations for a rebound as supply-side policies are implemented [2][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [1][63]. Market Overview - The report notes a 2.82% increase in the comprehensive index and a 1.99% increase in the electric power equipment industry index for the week [13][14]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a significant increase of 5.76% during the same period [17]. Photovoltaic Industry Chain Prices - The average price for polysilicon dense material and granular material remained stable at 35.0 and 34.0 RMB/kg respectively [3][37]. - The average price for monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers (182-183.75mm) decreased by 2.2% to 0.88 RMB/piece [3][37]. - The price for TOPCon battery cells (182-183.75mm) was reported at 0.230 RMB/W, reflecting a decrease of 2.1% [3][37]. - The price for 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass decreased by 2.6% to 18-19 RMB/m² [4][43]. Industry Valuation - As of July 4, the industry PE (TTM) for photovoltaic equipment is reported at 18x, with a valuation percentile of 13.8% [25][33]. - The report indicates that the electric power equipment industry has a PE (TTM) of 26x, with a valuation percentile of 24.9% [25][31].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe challenges, with many companies facing bankruptcy and an oversupply of production capacity, leading to continuous price declines and financial losses across the sector [4][5][6][8]. Group 1: Industry Status - As of 2024, at least 70 photovoltaic companies have filed for bankruptcy, primarily affecting small and medium-sized enterprises, with 40% of these bankruptcies occurring in the battery and module segments [8]. - The "installation rush" in the first half of the year led to a record high of 198 GW of new installations from January to May, yet prices across the photovoltaic supply chain continue to decline [6][9]. - The industry is in a prolonged "hell" phase, with companies bleeding cash while waiting for a balance between supply and demand [6][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, 40% of the 138 listed photovoltaic companies reported losses, with the top 10 loss-making companies collectively losing over 53 billion yuan [19][21]. - Major companies like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar reported significant losses in the first quarter of 2025, with combined losses nearing 8.4 billion yuan [20][21]. Group 3: Capacity and Market Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the production capacity for key segments in the photovoltaic supply chain is significantly higher than the projected global installation capacity, indicating a severe oversupply [15]. - The expansion of production capacity has not ceased, with numerous projects initiated in 2024, leading to further potential oversupply issues [15][16]. - The presence of state-owned enterprises acquiring struggling companies has hindered the necessary market corrections, allowing many non-competitive firms to remain operational [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Industry experts suggest that without strong regulatory measures, the current cycle of overcapacity and price wars will continue, potentially leading to the exit of major players [21][22]. - Proposed solutions include market-driven mergers and acquisitions, technological elimination mechanisms, and policy enforcement to manage capacity effectively [22].