Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

| を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hol [201] 1295号 2025年 | | | | 纪元菲 | 20013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品科 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ate | ರಿನಲ್ಲಿ | -35 | -3.68% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | aeso | aeso | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | રેક | 600 | -35 | -5.83% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1265 | 1300 | -35 | -2.69% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 12月11日 | 12月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Dark-colored rubber shows an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. Future focus should be on raw material output during the peak production season in the main producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, prices of various natural rubber products showed different trends, with some decreasing and others remaining stable. For example, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan to 14,350 yuan, a decrease of 1.71% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan to 150 yuan, a decrease of 3.23% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45% to 451.50. Tire production and export data also showed fluctuations. For example, domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10% to 10,295.40 million pieces [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is trending weakly. There is obvious over - supply, and the market is under pressure. In the medium - term, demand will continue to be based on rigid needs, and the market will face further pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. It is advisable to take a bearish approach in operation [3]. - **Glass**: The news of production line shutdown in Shahe area has a short - term emotional impact on the market. In the long - term, there will be production line restart, which will increase supply pressure. Although there is some demand expectation during the peak season, the glass industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. There is short - term support for the market, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On November 5, glass prices in different regions showed little change, with only the South China quotation decreasing by 10 yuan to 1,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.83%. The 01 basis increased by 8 yuan to 33 yuan, an increase of 32.00% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices in different regions remained stable, and the 01 - 4 spread decreased by 6 yuan to 105 yuan, a decrease of 5.41% [3]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volume data showed different trends. Soda ash production decreased slightly, and photovoltaic glass melting volume decreased by 0.84% [3]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased, while soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate data showed negative growth in new construction area, completion area, and sales area, with the sales area decreasing by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The log futures market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the disk price is at a relatively low level and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support, the market is still expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On November 5, log futures prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of the log 2511 contract increased by 2 yuan to 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.26%. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained stable [4]. - **Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost increased by 6.84 yuan to 812.97 yuan, an increase of 1% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, with the expected arrival of 17 ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9, an increase of 2 ships and 16% in volume compared to the previous week. Demand is slightly declining, with the average daily log出库 volume decreasing by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters as of October 31 [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are expectations of supply contraction, it is expected to have little short - term impact. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but there is cost support at the bottom. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan per ton, long positions can be considered [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of various industrial silicon products remained stable, and the basis of different benchmarks changed. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 135 yuan to 430 yuan, a decrease of 23.89% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: Spreads between different contracts changed. For example, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan to - 400 yuan, an increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and production in different regions also showed different trends. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Inventory in different regions and types showed different trends. For example, Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 million tons to 3.46 million tons, an increase of 1.47% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In November, the supply pressure is decreasing, but the demand is also decreasing, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. In trading, it is advisable to try long positions when the futures price returns to the lower end of the range, sell put options around 50,000 in the options market, and hold photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks in the equity market [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On November 5, spot prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the N - type material basis increased by 360 yuan to - 1,155 yuan, an increase of 23.76% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads**: The futures price decreased by 360 yuan to 53,355 yuan per ton, and the spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, import, and export data showed different trends. For example, weekly polysilicon production decreased by 4.41% to 2.82 million tons, while monthly production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,730 [6].

Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Industrial silicon supply increase pressures the price, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 remained unchanged. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 decreased by 10.47%, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 64.29%, and the basis of Xinjiang decreased by 7.76% [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 1.32%, 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50.00%, 2601 - 2602 decreased by 0.00%, 2602 - 2603 decreased by 300.00%, and 2603 - 2604 decreased by 20.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10%, Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78%, Yunnan's production increased by 2.41%, and Sichuan's production decreased by 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 10.86%, Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 22.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 11.99%, and Sichuan's decreased by 1.47%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased by 0.09%, Yunnan's decreased by 0.58%, Sichuan's increased by 1.00%, social inventory decreased by 0.53%, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.29%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.23% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. After the sharp rise in futures, the discount is repaired, and there is a need to pay attention to the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 325.19%. The average price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers decreased by 0.59%, and the average price of N - type 210R silicon wafers decreased by 2.16% [2]. - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 4.20%. The spread of the current month - the first consecutive contract decreased by 16.92%, the first - the second consecutive contract decreased by 61.90%, the second - the third consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, the third - the fourth consecutive contract increased by 140.00%, the fourth - the fifth consecutive contract decreased by 16.98%, and the fifth - the sixth consecutive contract increased by 140.00% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production increased by 2.65%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.84% [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%, imports increased by 28.46%, exports decreased by 28.16%, and net exports decreased by 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 5.37%, imports decreased by 17.96%, exports remained unchanged, and net exports increased by 1.96%. Silicon wafer demand increased by 4.64% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1.91% [2]. Report on Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level. Although there is import cost support, the market is pessimistic due to expected supply increase and weak demand. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 27, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 all decreased. The prices of small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply**: From October 27 - November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, a week - on - week increase of 33%, and the arrival volume increased by 8.5 million cubic meters to about 53.3 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 19% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory was 284 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average log出库 volume was 6.44 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.12 million cubic meters from the previous week [3]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on subsequent rebounds. For glass, although the previous decline has priced in the negative factors, and the recent news has boosted the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market and close previous short positions [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, the prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased [4]. - **Supply**: Soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37%, weekly production increased by 3.37%, float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16%, and photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84%, soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 4.05%, and glass factory soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4]. Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the improvement of the macro - environment and fundamentals has led to a rebound in rubber prices. In the future, pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price is expected to run around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, the prices of Yunnan Guofu SCRMF, Thai standard mixed rubber, natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna, and raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged. The basis of whole milk decreased by 7.69%, the non - standard price difference decreased by 13.43%, the FOB middle price of cup rubber decreased by 100.00%, the FOB middle price of glue decreased by 100.00%, and the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna increased by 1.47% [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4.00%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.14% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 0.95%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 1.06%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 9.10%, and in September, tire exports decreased by 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 14.41%, and in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber STR20 in Thailand increased by 1.87%, the production cost of RSS3 increased by 0.50%, the production profit of STR20 decreased by 305.56%, and the production profit of RSS3 increased by 2.83% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07%, natural rubber factory futures inventory in SHFE increased by 6.28%, and the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao bonded warehouse decreased [5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a rebound in prices and profitability due to ongoing "anti-involution" policies, with significant stock price increases observed in September 2023 [1][7]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first eight months of 2023, solar power accounted for 66.81% of all new power generation capacity in China, with an addition of 23.1 million kilowatts, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.5% [2][4]. - The total installed solar power capacity in China surpassed 1.12 billion kilowatts by the end of August 2023, reflecting strong growth momentum [2][4]. Group 2: Price Recovery - Since September, prices across the photovoltaic supply chain have been rising, with polysilicon prices increasing by 45.71% to 51 yuan per kilogram, and monocrystalline N-type silicon wafer prices rising over 50% [5][7]. - Photovoltaic glass prices have also seen significant increases, with 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass prices rising by 28.2% and 15.5%, respectively, since late July [5]. Group 3: Financing and Investment - In the third quarter of 2023, photovoltaic stocks received a net inflow of 16.168 billion yuan in financing, with 22 stocks attracting over 100 million yuan each, led by Yangguang Electric with 7.605 billion yuan [6][9]. - Yangguang Electric's stock price surged by 139.01% since July, reaching a market capitalization of 335.819 billion yuan, while its net profit for the first half of 2023 increased by 55.97% year-on-year [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has implemented measures to regulate the photovoltaic industry, focusing on eliminating outdated capacity and promoting orderly competition, which has contributed to the recent price recovery [7][9].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices indicates a volatile market, with prices reaching a peak of 45,850.0 yuan and currently at 45,345.0 yuan, reflecting a 2.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that the polysilicon market will primarily experience range-bound fluctuations, with stable supply and slight production increases expected in North China [2] - Donghai Futures views the polysilicon market as showing a strong upward trend, with recent price increases in N-type and P-type materials, indicating a resilient market despite recent price drops [3] - Jin Xin Futures notes that the polysilicon market is transitioning from an upward trend to high-level fluctuations, emphasizing the need for investors to monitor policy changes and supply-demand dynamics closely [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The latest N-type polysilicon price is quoted at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.1%, while P-type material is priced at 30,500 yuan/ton [3] - Recent price increases in N-type silicon wafers and battery components suggest a continued upward pressure on polysilicon prices, despite some short-term volatility [3] - The market is currently experiencing a low level of downstream demand, with no new orders being signed, which may affect future price stability [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 43,250.0 yuan, and closed at 42,945.0 yuan with a rise of 1.50% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of polysilicon prices, with some expecting a potential correction while others maintain a bullish outlook [2] - The supply side of polysilicon shows an overall increase in production, but some companies are undergoing maintenance, leading to a mixed impact on capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment shows a positive CPI and a weakening PPI, which may influence market expectations [2] - The demand side is under pressure due to reduced production schedules in downstream solar component manufacturing, despite recent price recoveries [2] - The operating rate for polysilicon in June was reported at 35.47%, with a year-on-year production decrease of 38% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [3]