证券研究报告：电力设备|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-25 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 9617.17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 周最低 | | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 l 投资要点 格局优化预期迎来政策支持。供给端的"反内卷"政策持续推动， 叠加中国提交 NDC3.0，国内的相关配套措施会使 2026 年整体呈现过 渡年状态，大基地的消纳有望加速解决，基于此，我们认为 2026 年 整体需求有支撑，整体的预期差加大。 2025 年 1-10 月，累计新增装机规模 252.GW，同比+39.3%，1-9 月消纳率 95%。2025 年 4-5 月受 136 号文 531 截止带来的抢装潮，9 月装机 9.7GW，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The pace of wind turbine large-scale development is clearly slowing down, with a focus on hydrogen energy as a "future industry" in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][7] - The wind power index increased by 5.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.66 percentage points [4][12] - The overall PE ratio for the wind power index is 25.72 times [12] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The recent Beijing International Wind Energy Conference showcased few new products, with a trend towards standardizing rotor diameters rather than further increasing size [6][11] - The domestic wind turbine market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on international expansion, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers by 2026 [6][11] - The wind power index's performance indicates a strong market sentiment, with a year-to-date increase of 40.03% [12][13] Photovoltaics - Tongwei's Q3 earnings showed significant improvement, with a revenue of 24.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, and a net loss reduction of 5.29 billion yuan [6][4] - The overall PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is approximately 44.31 times, indicating a high valuation despite short-term supply-demand challenges [4][12] Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes hydrogen energy as a key future industry, highlighting its potential for significant market growth [7] - The report suggests that the hydrogen energy sector is gaining policy support, with expectations for orderly project implementation across the entire industry chain [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies focusing on green hydrogen project investment and operation [7] Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on domestic offshore demand, profitability recovery, and international expansion opportunities, highlighting companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [7] - In photovoltaics, attention is drawn to structural opportunities within the industry, with recommended stocks including Dier Laser and Longi Green Energy [7] - In energy storage, the report suggests looking at companies with strong global competitiveness and low valuations, such as Sungrow Power Supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar is facing significant financial challenges, including a substantial loss in the first half of the year and declining profit margins, leading to asset sales to alleviate debt pressures [1][2][9][14]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, JinkoSolar reported a revenue of 31.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.6%, and a net loss of 2.91 billion yuan compared to a profit of 1.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][5]. - The company's gross margin fell to -2.0%, a decline of 10.6 percentage points year-on-year, marking a rare instance of negative gross margin [2][3]. - In Q2, revenue was 17.99 billion yuan, down 25.6% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.52 billion yuan, indicating a continued downward trend in performance [2]. Product Segment Performance - JinkoSolar's component revenue decreased by 33.7% to 30.124 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -0.98% [5]. - The gross margin for battery cells plummeted by 27.18 percentage points to -29.95%, while the gross margin for silicon wafers dropped by 25.92 percentage points to -27.29% [5]. - International revenue fell by 38.93% to 20.535 billion yuan, with a gross margin of -0.05%, marking the first time in five years that it has entered negative territory [5]. R&D and Competitive Position - JinkoSolar has heavily capitalized its R&D investments, with a cost capitalization rate of only about 20%, indicating potential overstatement of performance [5][8]. - Although JinkoSolar initially led in the adoption of TOPCon technology, increased competition has eroded its first-mover advantage, resulting in a rapid expansion of TOPCon capacity across the industry [8]. Cash Flow and Debt Situation - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of -3.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in cash outflow [9][11]. - As of June 2025, JinkoSolar's debt ratio reached 74.07%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points from the end of 2024, with interest-bearing debt rising significantly [11]. - The company has been selling assets to manage its financial strain, including the sale of its subsidiary Xinjiang Jinko for 4.3 billion yuan, despite the subsidiary's strong performance [11][12]. Asset Sales and Market Confidence - JinkoSolar's asset sales, while providing short-term relief, are unlikely to resolve underlying performance and debt issues [14]. - The stock price decline has led to significant shareholder sell-offs, further diminishing market confidence in the company's future prospects [14].

Group 1: Power Equipment - The AIDC sector continues to show strong sentiment, with companies disclosing new product developments such as SST and HVDC, leading to valuation premiums for new technologies [2] - The high demand for AIDC is expected to persist, with a focus on the release of high-pressure equipment and the extension of the high-pressure equipment boom cycle due to the Yaxia project [2] - Exports in the power transformer sector are projected to grow over 40% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong overseas demand [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery - Opportunities in the lithium battery sector arise from the upcoming peak season and unexpected growth in energy storage, with many stocks being key components of the ChiNext board [4] - The focus is on low-valuation leading companies with stable performance, as well as elastic stocks like 6F that are expected to see price increases [4] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The implementation of the Pricing Law supports the photovoltaic industry chain, ensuring that sales do not fall below full cost, thus providing strong price support [8] - From September, silicon material production and sales will be limited, with expectations for stable output and restricted sales, leading to a potential narrowing of losses for companies with sufficient inventory [8] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve, contingent on unexpected changes in supply and demand dynamics [8] Group 4: Energy Storage - Companies with strong performance in the energy storage sector are expected to maintain their momentum, supported by recent capacity pricing policies and favorable long-term demand from new energy sources [12] Group 5: Wind Power - The wind power sector has shown recovery in profitability, with most major turbine manufacturers entering a recovery phase, and turbine prices have increased by 5-10% since November 2024 [13] - Component manufacturers have reported significant growth in Q2, confirming the high demand in the industry [13] - The offshore wind sector is expected to see high growth in installations, driven by successful project advancements [13] Group 6: Hydrogen Energy - North American SOFC leaders are transitioning from 1GW to 2GW production capacity, with a strong outlook for stock price growth due to high visibility of future orders [15] - Long-term cost reductions in SOFC technology are anticipated to enhance its economic advantages, potentially increasing market penetration significantly [15] Group 7: Robotics - The human-shaped robot sector has seen a decline in short-term interest, but future developments are expected as new technologies and supply chains mature [15] - Domestic applications are anticipated to see growth as automation solutions are implemented in production lines, with significant developments expected by the end of 2025 [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the photovoltaic (PV) industry [2]. Core Insights - The PV industry is experiencing a shift from a subsidy-driven demand model to a price-driven model, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality policies [20][23]. - The demand for PV installations is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 300 GW of new installations in China by 2025 [23][27]. - The supply side of the PV industry is currently at a low point, with many companies facing severe losses, indicating a potential for capacity clearing and recovery in the future [35][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics in the New Energy Industry - The core focus of the new energy industry research is on supply and demand relationships, driven by policy and economic factors [7][8]. - Demand drivers include policy incentives and cost reductions, while supply drivers involve capacity cycles and technological advancements [7][8]. 2. Review of the Photovoltaic Industry - The demand for PV has evolved through three main phases: initial growth driven by Europe, followed by China and other countries, and now a more diversified global demand landscape [14][17]. - The transition to a "grid parity" era has changed the demand dynamics, with a focus on carbon neutrality policies becoming increasingly significant [20][23]. - The report highlights that the global average penetration rate of PV is still low, suggesting substantial growth potential in the coming years [27]. 3. Supply-Side Capacity Cycles and New Technologies - The PV industry is currently at a cyclical low, with many companies reporting losses, indicating a need for capacity adjustments [35][36]. - Technological advancements are crucial for cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with N-type solar cells becoming the dominant technology in the market [40][44]. - The report notes that new technologies like xBC may emerge as significant players if production challenges are overcome [44].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bangjie Co., Ltd. (002634.SZ), is gradually retracting from its solar energy business, having announced the termination of its high-efficiency photovoltaic module project in Yangzhou due to changing market conditions and increased investment risks [1][4]. Group 1: Project Termination - The company plans to terminate the 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module and R&D center project, which was initiated in July 2023 [4]. - The project was expected to involve a fixed asset investment of approximately 1 billion yuan, with the first phase focusing on a 4GW module project [4]. - The termination is attributed to changes in the photovoltaic industry market environment, leading to increased investment risks and potential economic losses for all parties involved [4]. Group 2: Previous Projects and Financial Implications - In December 2022, the company signed an investment agreement for a 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cell project, which has also faced challenges, including a temporary production halt since March 2024 [6][7]. - The company has announced the termination of another project in Jiangshan, which will incur a compensation payment of 15 million yuan to the local government [9]. - The company has not mentioned any compensation related to the termination of the Yangzhou project, indicating that other agreements with the Yangzhou Economic Development Zone are still pending resolution [10]. Group 3: Management Changes - The company has undergone significant management changes, including the replacement of its controlling shareholder and actual controller, with the new controlling entity being Shanghai Qishuo Ruihang Enterprise Management Partnership [11]. - A complete overhaul of the management team has occurred, with the appointment of new directors and executives, including a new chairman and general manager, who have backgrounds in finance and investment [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bangjie Co., Ltd., is gradually retracting from the photovoltaic business after experiencing significant changes in the market environment, leading to the termination of key projects [1][4]. Group 1: Project Termination - On August 21, Bangjie announced the termination of its 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module and R&D center project in collaboration with the Yangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee [1]. - The decision to terminate the project was made after the board's review and is pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [1]. - Just a month prior, the company also announced the termination of the Jiangshan high-efficiency photovoltaic cell and large-size silicon wafer slicing project [2]. Group 2: Investment and Financial Implications - The Yangzhou module project was initiated in July 2023, with an estimated fixed asset investment of approximately 1 billion yuan, including a planned 4GW capacity for the first phase [3]. - The company had previously indicated that successful implementation of the project would enhance its core competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector [3]. - The latest announcement cited increased investment risks and uncertainties due to changes in the photovoltaic market environment, which could lead to greater economic losses for all parties involved [4]. Group 3: Other Agreements and Compensation - Bangjie is required to pay 15 million yuan in compensation to the Jiangshan Economic Development Zone Management Committee due to the termination of the Jiangshan project, with a deadline for payment set for October 10 [4]. - The termination agreement for the Yangzhou project does not mention any compensation, and it only pertains to the module project, leaving other agreements with the Yangzhou committee to be addressed separately [5]. - In December 2022, Bangjie signed an investment agreement for a 10GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cell project, which has faced production challenges since early 2024, with temporary shutdowns reported [5][6].

Group 1: Core Insights - The latest photovoltaic rankings by InfoLink show slight adjustments in the positions of leading companies in the battery and module segments for the first half of the year [1] - In the battery segment, Tongwei Co. remains the leader, while Aiko Solar holds the fifth position, and Yingfa Energy has moved up to third, swapping places with Jetta Technology [1] - In the module segment, JinkoSolar maintains its top position, followed by Longi Green Energy, with JA Solar and Trina Solar tied for third place [1] Group 2: Technology Trends - TOPCon solar cells dominate the market with an 88.3% shipment share in the first half of the year, while traditional PERC cells account for approximately 11.2% [2] - The larger 210RN size in TOPCon cells has seen a significant increase in shipment share, rising to about 31.4% from 8% year-on-year [2] - Yingfa Energy has begun shipping BC solar cells, becoming the first specialized battery manufacturer to export BC cells globally, with N-type cell shipments ranking among the top two worldwide [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The total shipment volume of the top five battery suppliers reached approximately 87.8 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 12.5% [3] - The top ten module suppliers shipped around 247.9 GW, marking a 10% increase compared to the previous year, with the top ten accounting for about 80% of total module production [3] - Tongwei Co. and Yida New Energy reported shipment growth rates of 30-40%, indicating rapid expansion in their module business [3]

Core Insights - InfoLink has released a new ranking for leading companies in the photovoltaic battery and module sectors, showing slight changes compared to the previous year, with no new entrants in the top ranks for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Battery Segment Summary - The top five battery manufacturers remain unchanged in terms of participants, with slight positional shifts: Tongwei Co., Ltd. retains the top position, while Yingfa Renergy moves from fourth to third, swapping places with Jietai Technology [2]. - Yingfa Renergy's N-type battery shipments reached the top two globally in the first half of the year, and it became the first company to export BC battery cells [2][3]. - The total global shipment volume of the top five battery suppliers reached approximately 87.8 GW, marking a year-on-year increase of about 12.5% [2]. Module Segment Summary - The module segment saw more significant changes, with JinkoSolar maintaining its leading position and LONGi Green Energy in second place. JA Solar and Trina Solar are now tied for third [5][6]. - The total shipment volume of the top ten module suppliers was approximately 247.9 GW, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - The production of modules in the first half of the year reached 310 GW, a 14.4% increase compared to the previous year [9]. Market Trends and Observations - The market is witnessing a shift towards larger TOPCon battery cells, with the 210RN size accounting for about 31.4% of shipments, up from 8% in the previous year [3]. - Companies like Tongwei and Yida New Energy reported shipment increases of 30-40%, indicating rapid expansion in their module business [10]. - The industry is experiencing a transformation aimed at addressing long-standing issues of supply-demand mismatch and unhealthy price competition, with a focus on sustainable profitability rather than just market share [12][13]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of companies like Yongdian Dongci and Aiko Solar has been noteworthy, with Yongdian Dongci achieving a net profit of 960-1,050 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%-63.6% [11]. - Despite high shipment volumes, many companies are facing significant losses, with 31 A-share listed photovoltaic companies reporting a total net loss of 57.47 billion yuan in 2024 [12][15].

Core Insights - The global total shipment volume of the top five battery manufacturers is projected to reach approximately 87.8 GW in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 12.5% [1] - The top five manufacturers are Tongwei Co., Ltd., Zhongrun Guoneng, Yingfa Ruineng, Jietai Technology, and Aiko Solar, with only Yingfa Ruineng and Jietai Technology swapping positions compared to 2024 [1] - The market is witnessing a significant shift towards TOPCon technology, which accounted for 88.3% of shipments, while PERC and BC technologies had shares of approximately 11.2% and less than 1%, respectively [2] Company-Specific Developments - Zhongrun Guoneng continues to ship PERC battery cells from its Chinese production base while advancing technology upgrades and product iterations [1] - Yingfa Ruineng's N-type battery cell shipments ranked second globally, and the company began shipping BC battery cells in Q2 2025, becoming the first specialized battery manufacturer to export BC cells [1] - Aiko Solar primarily uses BC batteries for its own module products, with PERC still being the main product line, accounting for 70% of its shipments [1] Market Trends and Pricing Dynamics - The shipment of 210RN size TOPCon cells reached approximately 31.4% in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from about 8% in the same period last year, indicating rapid market acceptance [2] - The battery cell market experienced a price surge in March due to a domestic installation rush, with TOPCon prices briefly exceeding 0.3 yuan/W, but prices fell to historical lows of 0.23 to 0.24 yuan/W by early July [2] - The introduction of "anti-involution" measures is expected to provide positive signals for the industry, potentially alleviating the oversupply situation and guiding the market towards healthier operating levels [3] Future Outlook - While the policy effects and market recovery are anticipated to take time, the long-term outlook suggests that these measures could help battery manufacturers mitigate losses and improve operational structures [3] - The industry is at a transformative juncture, where companies that can effectively respond to challenges and enhance brand competitiveness will be better positioned to seize new growth opportunities [3]