英大证券研究所证券研究报告 行 业 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 投资评级：强于大市 执业证书编号：S0990524110001 电话：0755-83007043 邮箱：lisy@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 最近一年走势 行业事件：2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系 的实施意见》，全国统一电力市场顶层设计出台，电力市场化改革从区域试 点、机制探索，进入了全国一盘棋、系统化推进的新阶段。 指数表现：根据 iFind 数据，2026/2/9-2026/2/15 期间，沪深 300 上涨 0.36%， 电力设备指数上涨 1.13%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.77pct。 行业表现：根据 iFind 数据，2026/2/9-2026/2/15 期间，31 个申万一级行业 中，电力设备上涨 1.13%，排第 13 位。申万三级行业，电力能源相关子板块 中，输变电设备、其他电源设备Ⅲ、电网自动化设备涨幅位列前三位，分别 上涨 5.24%、5.22%、3.98%；光伏电池组件、光伏加工设备、锂电专用设备 跌幅位列前三位，分别下跌 4.08%、3.15%、2.77%。 数据来源 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2026, the installed capacity of solar power generation in China is expected to surpass that of coal power for the first time, with the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reaching half of the total installed capacity by the end of the year [10] - The report indicates that the energy sector is transitioning from a coal-dominated system to one led by renewable energy, reshaping the power source structure and market rules [11] - The report notes significant growth in the energy storage sector, with a cumulative installed capacity of 213 GW by the end of 2025, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [42] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The China Electricity Council predicts that in 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will exceed that of coal power, with wind and solar combined accounting for 80.2% of new installed capacity in 2025 [10] - Major energy projects are being advanced, including the successful installation of a nuclear power unit and the completion of significant transmission lines [11] Market Performance - During the period from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, while the power equipment index rose by 2.20%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 3.53 percentage points [13] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, photovoltaic battery components, photovoltaic processing equipment, and cable components saw the highest increases, with respective rises of 8.10%, 6.01%, and 4.20% [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption in society was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total of 1,036.82 billion kWh consumed throughout the year, marking a 5.00% increase [21] - The newly added power generation capacity in 2025 was 54,617.1558 MW, a year-on-year increase of 26.07% [23] New Power System Situation Photovoltaics - As of February 4, 2026, the average price of polysilicon was 54 CNY/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [39] Energy Storage - By the end of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% year-on-year [42] Lithium Batteries - As of February 6, 2026, the price of lithium carbonate was 134,000 CNY/ton, down by 1,400 CNY/ton from the previous week [46] Charging Stations - By the end of December 2025, the total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million, a year-on-year increase of 56.75% [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文/新浪财经上海站 途景 靠环保设备起家的仕净科技（301030.SZ），在光伏赛道上付出了沉重代价。 仕净科技自2023年起大举跨界光伏，一口气抛出255亿元押注TOPCon电池片，却正面撞上行业价格战 与供需失衡。项目刚投产便陷入亏损，两年不到累计亏损接近10亿元，历史利润被迅速吞噬，更直接拖 累资金链，诉讼风险集中暴露。 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | 年初至报告周末 | 年初至报告期末比上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增减 | | 年回期增減 | | 营业收入(元) | 53, 922, 274. 08 | -95. 40% | 1, 110, 919, 520, 98 | -65. 44% | | 归属于上市公司股东的 | -105, 388, 400, 40 | -808, 84% | -225, 540, 203, 09 | -256, 77% | | 净利润(元) | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东的 扣除非经常性损益的净 | -136, 711, ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a decline in production and demand, with significant decreases expected in December 2025, influenced by export tax policies and market conditions [1][2]. Production - PV module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a further expected decline of 14.77% in December [2]. - Battery production for January 2026 is projected at 210 GWh in China, down 4.55% month-on-month, with significant reductions in second-tier companies, while energy storage battery production remains stable or slightly increases [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while TOPCon dual-glass module prices increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 6.4% decrease [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the export value of PV modules was approximately $2.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4]. - Domestic PV installations in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, a 74.76% increase month-on-month but an 11.92% decrease year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The expected cancellation of the export tax rebate for certain products in April 2026 may temporarily boost domestic PV product shipments, while also promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity [5]. - Companies to watch include Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Narada Power Source (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shijin Technology is facing multiple challenges after its foray into the photovoltaic sector, leading to a significant decline in performance and financial instability [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shijin Technology, established in 2005, initially focused on pollution control equipment in the semiconductor industry and had a close partnership with JinkoSolar [1]. - The company went public in 2021, with its market value exceeding 10 billion yuan at one point [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shijin Technology's photovoltaic product revenue reached 644 million yuan, accounting for 31.35% of total revenue, but the gross margin plummeted to -40.26%, resulting in significant losses [2]. - The traditional environmental equipment business also saw a gross margin drop to -1.3%, leading to an annual loss of 771 million yuan, wiping out net profits accumulated over three years [3]. - By the third quarter of 2025, losses further expanded to 226 million yuan, with cash reserves dwindling to 303 million yuan, a 58.42% decrease year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Debt and Financial Strain - The company's short-term borrowings and liabilities due within one year reached 1.824 billion yuan, pushing the debt-to-asset ratio to 90.85% [3]. - To alleviate financial pressure, the controlling shareholder pledged 98.56% of their shares and transferred 10.1 million shares to repay stock pledge financing, raising 118 million yuan [3]. Group 4: Strategic Response - In September 2025, Shijin Technology attempted to introduce state-owned capital for relief by establishing a special purpose vehicle (SPV) with an initial capital of no more than 135 million yuan [3]. - This move aimed to acquire existing debts and provide a loan for operational support, but it only addressed short-term liquidity issues without resolving the underlying losses in the photovoltaic business [3]. Group 5: Industry Context - The case of Shijin Technology serves as a warning to the capital market, highlighting that over 70 companies announced forays into the photovoltaic sector in 2022, with many facing challenges due to technical barriers and financial pressures [4]. - The transition from a leader in environmental equipment to significant losses in the photovoltaic sector underscores common issues in strategic transformation, including misjudgment of industry cycles and inadequate risk management [4].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the demand for photovoltaic components, with exports reaching approximately $2.412 billion in November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2]. - The report anticipates a short-term boost in domestic photovoltaic product shipments due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate starting April 2026, which may lead to the optimization of production capacity in the long term [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies related to energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, specifically mentioning Yangguang Electric (300274.SZ), Nandu Power (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [2]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic components decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a forecasted further decline of 14.77% in December due to returning to a period of weak terminal demand [2]. - The production forecast for January 2026 indicates a total of 210 GWh for the Chinese market in power, storage, and consumer batteries, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.55% [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of TOPCon double-glass components increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [2][11]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [2]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation capacity in November 2025 was 22.02 GW, showing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2]. - Cumulative new photovoltaic installations from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [2]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of photovoltaic inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2]. - The report indicates that the export of photovoltaic components to Australia saw a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 177%, suggesting new growth opportunities in emerging markets [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shijin Technology is facing multiple challenges after its foray into the photovoltaic sector, leading to a significant decline in performance, high debt levels, and substantial shareholder equity pledges [1][2][3] Company Overview - Founded in 2005, Shijin Technology initially specialized in pollution control equipment for the semiconductor industry and had a close partnership with JinkoSolar [1] - The company went public in 2021, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] Investment in Photovoltaics - In early 2023, Shijin Technology announced a major investment of 11.2 billion yuan to establish a 24GW TOPCon solar cell project in Anhui and a joint investment of 10 billion yuan with JinkoSolar for a 20GW silicon wafer and 20GW solar cell base in Sichuan [1][2] - The company also accelerated its overseas factory layout in Mexico [1] Financial Performance - The photovoltaic business generated revenue of 644 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 31.35% of total revenue, but suffered a gross margin of -40.26%, resulting in significant losses [2][5] - The traditional environmental equipment business also faced challenges, with a gross margin of -1.3%, leading to an overall annual loss of 771 million yuan [2][5] - Cumulatively, the company has reported a total net loss since its IPO, with losses further expanding to 226 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][5] Cash Flow and Debt Situation - By the end of Q3 2025, Shijin Technology's cash reserves had dwindled to 303 million yuan, a decrease of 58.42% year-on-year, while short-term borrowings and liabilities due within one year reached 1.824 billion yuan [2][5] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio surged to 90.85% [2][5] Shareholder Actions - To alleviate financial pressure, the controlling shareholder, Zhu Ye, and associates pledged 98.56% of their shares [2][5] - In September 2025, Zhu Ye transferred 10.0998 million shares (4.99% of total shares) to Beijing Scorpius Asset Management for 118 million yuan to repay debt [2][5] Crisis Management Efforts - In September 2025, Shijin Technology attempted to introduce state-owned capital for relief by establishing a special purpose vehicle (SPV) with Suzhou Xingtai Industrial, raising a total of 135 million yuan [3][6] - However, this measure only provided temporary liquidity relief and did not address the fundamental issues of losses in the photovoltaic business [3][6] Industry Context - Shijin Technology's situation serves as a warning to the capital market, as over 70 companies announced forays into photovoltaics in 2022, with many facing challenges due to technical barriers and financial pressures [3][6] - The company's transition from a leader in environmental equipment to significant losses in the photovoltaic sector highlights common issues in strategic transformation, including misjudgment of industry cycles and inadequate risk management [3][6]

证券研究报告：电力设备|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-25 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 9617.17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 周最低 | | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 l 投资要点 格局优化预期迎来政策支持。供给端的"反内卷"政策持续推动， 叠加中国提交 NDC3.0，国内的相关配套措施会使 2026 年整体呈现过 渡年状态，大基地的消纳有望加速解决，基于此，我们认为 2026 年 整体需求有支撑，整体的预期差加大。 2025 年 1-10 月，累计新增装机规模 252.GW，同比+39.3%，1-9 月消纳率 95%。2025 年 4-5 月受 136 号文 531 截止带来的抢装潮，9 月装机 9.7GW，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The pace of wind turbine large-scale development is clearly slowing down, with a focus on hydrogen energy as a "future industry" in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][7] - The wind power index increased by 5.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.66 percentage points [4][12] - The overall PE ratio for the wind power index is 25.72 times [12] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The recent Beijing International Wind Energy Conference showcased few new products, with a trend towards standardizing rotor diameters rather than further increasing size [6][11] - The domestic wind turbine market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on international expansion, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers by 2026 [6][11] - The wind power index's performance indicates a strong market sentiment, with a year-to-date increase of 40.03% [12][13] Photovoltaics - Tongwei's Q3 earnings showed significant improvement, with a revenue of 24.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, and a net loss reduction of 5.29 billion yuan [6][4] - The overall PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is approximately 44.31 times, indicating a high valuation despite short-term supply-demand challenges [4][12] Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes hydrogen energy as a key future industry, highlighting its potential for significant market growth [7] - The report suggests that the hydrogen energy sector is gaining policy support, with expectations for orderly project implementation across the entire industry chain [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies focusing on green hydrogen project investment and operation [7] Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on domestic offshore demand, profitability recovery, and international expansion opportunities, highlighting companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [7] - In photovoltaics, attention is drawn to structural opportunities within the industry, with recommended stocks including Dier Laser and Longi Green Energy [7] - In energy storage, the report suggests looking at companies with strong global competitiveness and low valuations, such as Sungrow Power Supply [7]