证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外主要云 厂商资本开支持续增长，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-09 《光储行业跟踪：全国性储能容量电价机制出 台，储能系统价格持续上涨》2026-02-09 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下行，储能电芯 均价上行》2026-02-09 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：甲骨文资本 开支环比高增，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-03 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下跌，储能电芯 均价持续上涨》2026-02-03 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com 行业及产业 1 月国内新型储能新增投运装机规模同 比高增，TOPCon 双玻组件价格稳定 ——光储行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 InfoLin ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector in A-shares continues to strengthen, with Maiwei Co., Ltd. achieving a significant breakthrough in the production technology of perovskite/silicon heterojunction stacked batteries, reaching a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 32.38% [1] - The commercial aerospace industry in China has made milestone achievements in key areas such as reusable rocket technology and large satellite constellation networking, driving rapid development in the emerging field of space photovoltaics [1] - Analysts believe that space photovoltaics, leveraging the unique advantage of continuous sunlight in space, will become a key support for long-term stable energy supply for spacecraft, with demand growth driven by satellite networking and equipment upgrades [1] Group 2 - Global low-orbit satellite planning is expected to generate nearly 10GW of space photovoltaic installation demand, with Elon Musk mentioning plans to launch 100GW of AI computing power satellites annually [2] - The price of TOPCon photovoltaic cells increased by 2.56% to 0.40 yuan/W, while the price of TOPCon double-glass components reached 0.71 yuan/W, indicating a rising trend in component prices [2] - Despite the upcoming cancellation of export VAT refunds for photovoltaic products in April 2026, short-term export behaviors may be stimulated, while long-term effects could lead to the elimination of outdated capacities and promote industry concentration and technological upgrades [3] Group 3 - In November 2025, China's photovoltaic component export value reached $2.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.08%, with a cumulative export value of $25.885 billion from January to November, reflecting a 4.89% year-on-year growth [3] - The CSI Photovoltaic Leader 30 Index surged by 5.13% as of January 23, 2026, with the Guangfa Photovoltaic Leader ETF rising by 5.22%, indicating strong market performance [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 71.84%, with Maiwei Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Jiejia Weichuang and Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical also showing significant gains [3]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a decline in production and demand, with significant decreases expected in December 2025, influenced by export tax policies and market conditions [1][2]. Production - PV module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a further expected decline of 14.77% in December [2]. - Battery production for January 2026 is projected at 210 GWh in China, down 4.55% month-on-month, with significant reductions in second-tier companies, while energy storage battery production remains stable or slightly increases [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while TOPCon dual-glass module prices increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a 6.4% decrease [3]. Demand - In November 2025, the export value of PV modules was approximately $2.412 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [4]. - Domestic PV installations in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, a 74.76% increase month-on-month but an 11.92% decrease year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The expected cancellation of the export tax rebate for certain products in April 2026 may temporarily boost domestic PV product shipments, while also promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity [5]. - Companies to watch include Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Narada Power Source (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the demand for photovoltaic components, with exports reaching approximately $2.412 billion in November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2]. - The report anticipates a short-term boost in domestic photovoltaic product shipments due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate starting April 2026, which may lead to the optimization of production capacity in the long term [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies related to energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, specifically mentioning Yangguang Electric (300274.SZ), Nandu Power (300068.SZ), Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ), Huashengchang (002980.SZ), and Shouhang New Energy (301658.SZ) [2]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the overall production of photovoltaic components decreased by 2.43% compared to October, with a forecasted further decline of 14.77% in December due to returning to a period of weak terminal demand [2]. - The production forecast for January 2026 indicates a total of 210 GWh for the Chinese market in power, storage, and consumer batteries, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.55% [2]. Prices - As of January 14, 2026, the price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of TOPCon double-glass components increased by approximately 1.43% to 0.71 CNY/W [2][11]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 was 0.5721 CNY/Wh, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [2]. Domestic Demand - The domestic photovoltaic installation capacity in November 2025 was 22.02 GW, showing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2]. - Cumulative new photovoltaic installations from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [2]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of photovoltaic inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2]. - The report indicates that the export of photovoltaic components to Australia saw a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 177%, suggesting new growth opportunities in emerging markets [2].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in demand for photovoltaic components, with a notable year-on-year growth in domestic installations and exports [3][4]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to impact pricing and demand dynamics in the industry starting April 2026 [3]. - The report suggests a focus on energy storage-related companies as potential investment opportunities due to the increasing demand in the sector [3]. Production Summary - Photovoltaic module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% month-on-month, with domestic inventory levels rising as terminal installations fell short of expectations [3]. - Battery production for January 2026 is projected at 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% from the previous month, primarily driven by a reduction in production from second-tier companies [3]. Price Summary - As of January 7, 2026, the price of polysilicon increased by 3.85% to 54.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers rose by 12.00% to 1.40 CNY/piece [3]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems was reported at 0.5721 CNY/Wh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [3]. Domestic Demand Summary - In November 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations reached 22.02 GW, marking a 74.76% increase month-on-month but an 11.92% decrease year-on-year [3]. - Cumulative domestic photovoltaic installations from January to November 2025 totaled 274.89 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.25% [3]. Overseas Demand Summary - In November 2025, photovoltaic component exports amounted to approximately 2.412 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 34.08% [3]. - The inverter export value for November 2025 was 767 million USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.91% [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Strong Buy" rating for the solar and energy storage sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on current trends and demand forecasts [2][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic solar installation capacity in November 2025 reached 22.02 GW, representing a month-on-month increase of 74.76% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.92% [2][3]. - The export value of solar modules in November 2025 was approximately $2.412 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.08% and a month-on-month increase of 6.84% [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for energy storage systems, with the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems in November 2025 ranging from 0.4452 to 0.6828 CNY/Wh, with an average price of 0.5721 CNY/Wh [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production - Solar module production in November 2025 decreased by 2.43% compared to October, while battery production for January 2026 is projected to be 210 GWh, a decrease of 4.55% month-on-month [2][3]. Pricing - As of December 24, 2025, the price of multi-crystalline silicon remained stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 5.93% to 1.25 CNY/piece [2][3]. Domestic Demand - The cumulative newly installed solar capacity from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.25% [2][3]. Overseas Demand - The report notes that the export value of inverters in November 2025 was $767 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.91% and a month-on-month increase of 13.29% [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant rebound in prices and performance, driven by policy support, market adjustments, and technological innovations, marking a critical turning point for the sector in 2025 [3][10][31]. Price Rebound - The photovoltaic sector has collectively strengthened, primarily due to rising prices [4]. - The price of polysilicon hit a low in mid-2025 and began a strong rebound in the third quarter, with N-type silicon prices increasing from approximately 34,400 yuan/ton to around 47,100 yuan/ton in just one month, reflecting a 37% increase [5][6][7]. - By September 2025, polysilicon prices surpassed 50,000 yuan/ton, leading to price increases in downstream products like silicon wafers and battery cells [8]. - The average price of domestic TOPCon double-glass modules in September 2025 was about 0.715 yuan/watt, a 3.6% increase from July [9]. - The price rebound is attributed to strong policy interventions and market clearing, moving the industry away from a cycle of losses [10][11]. Performance Recovery - Recent performance data from leading photovoltaic companies indicate a recovery phase, with many entering a "significant loss reduction" phase [15][17]. - For instance, Sunshine Power reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a 20.83% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 4.147 billion yuan, up 57.04% [16]. - Longi Green Energy recorded a revenue of 50.915 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with losses narrowing by 48% compared to the previous year [16]. - Overall, the industry is showing signs of recovery, with institutional funds reallocating towards the photovoltaic sector, marking a shift from previous net outflows [18]. Future Drivers - The long-term demand for photovoltaic energy remains strong, with the International Energy Agency predicting that renewable energy will account for 43% of global electricity generation by 2030 [21][22]. - The "anti-involution" policy is fundamentally changing the industry by shifting focus from price competition to high-quality value competition [24][25]. - This policy is leading to a gradual recovery of product prices, with polysilicon prices in Q3 2025 rising above the comprehensive cost line, setting the stage for profitability across the industry [25]. - The industry is also witnessing a shift in focus towards technological innovation, with resources being directed towards advanced technologies like BC back-contact cells and perovskite materials [27][28]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by rational valuation, visible performance inflection points, favorable policy environments, accelerated technological iterations, and renewed capital inflows [31][32]. - The overall attractiveness of the photovoltaic sector is drawing investment, particularly towards leading companies with strong operational and financial health [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant rebound in prices and performance, driven by policy support, market adjustments, and technological innovations, marking a critical turning point for the sector in 2025 [3][11][34]. Price Rebound - The photovoltaic sector has collectively strengthened, primarily due to rising prices [4]. - The price of polysilicon hit a low in mid-2025 and began a strong rebound in the third quarter, with N-type silicon material prices increasing from approximately 34,400 CNY/ton in late June to around 47,100 CNY/ton by the end of July, marking a 37% increase in just one month [5][6][7]. - By September 2025, the price of polysilicon surpassed 50,000 CNY/ton [8]. - The price increases in upstream materials have led to corresponding rises in the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells, with N-type G10L silicon wafers seeing a weekly price increase of 9.09% in late July [9]. - The average price of domestic TOPCon double-glass modules in September 2025 was approximately 0.715 CNY/W, reflecting a 3.6% increase from July [10]. Performance Recovery - The latest performance data from photovoltaic companies indicates a recovery phase, with many firms entering a "significant loss reduction" phase after price stabilization [16]. - For instance, Sunshine Power reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 22.869 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20.83%, with net profit soaring by 57.04% to 4.147 billion CNY [17]. - Longi Green Energy recorded a Q3 2025 loss of 834 million CNY, but this was a 48% reduction compared to the previous year, with revenue of 50.915 billion CNY [17]. - TBEA's Q3 2025 revenue slightly increased by 0.31% to 24.566 billion CNY, while net profit surged by 81.51% to 2.3 billion CNY [17]. - Overall, these performance metrics confirm that the photovoltaic industry has reached a bottom and is entering a recovery phase [18]. Future Drivers - Long-term demand for the global photovoltaic market remains strong, with the International Energy Agency predicting that renewable energy will account for 43% of global electricity generation by 2030, with solar power surpassing hydropower as the leading renewable source [22][23]. - The "anti-involution" policy is fundamentally changing the industry by shifting focus from price competition to high-quality value competition [25]. - The price of polysilicon has rebounded above the comprehensive cost line in Q3 2025, laying the groundwork for profitability recovery across the industry [27]. - Major companies are showing greater self-discipline by slowing down production expansion and shutting down inefficient capacities, significantly improving market supply-demand dynamics [28]. - The "anti-involution" policy is also reshaping the innovation ecosystem within the industry, allowing companies to invest more in technological research and development [30]. Conclusion - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in 2025, characterized by rational valuation, visible performance inflection points, favorable policy environments, accelerated technological iterations, and renewed capital inflows [34]. - The overall valuation and growth potential of the photovoltaic sector are attractive, drawing in investments focused on leading technology firms and financially healthy companies capable of pursuing new technological directions [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The pace of wind turbine large-scale development is clearly slowing down, with a focus on hydrogen energy as a "future industry" in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][7] - The wind power index increased by 5.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.66 percentage points [4][12] - The overall PE ratio for the wind power index is 25.72 times [12] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The recent Beijing International Wind Energy Conference showcased few new products, with a trend towards standardizing rotor diameters rather than further increasing size [6][11] - The domestic wind turbine market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on international expansion, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers by 2026 [6][11] - The wind power index's performance indicates a strong market sentiment, with a year-to-date increase of 40.03% [12][13] Photovoltaics - Tongwei's Q3 earnings showed significant improvement, with a revenue of 24.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57%, and a net loss reduction of 5.29 billion yuan [6][4] - The overall PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is approximately 44.31 times, indicating a high valuation despite short-term supply-demand challenges [4][12] Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes hydrogen energy as a key future industry, highlighting its potential for significant market growth [7] - The report suggests that the hydrogen energy sector is gaining policy support, with expectations for orderly project implementation across the entire industry chain [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies focusing on green hydrogen project investment and operation [7] Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on domestic offshore demand, profitability recovery, and international expansion opportunities, highlighting companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind [7] - In photovoltaics, attention is drawn to structural opportunities within the industry, with recommended stocks including Dier Laser and Longi Green Energy [7] - In energy storage, the report suggests looking at companies with strong global competitiveness and low valuations, such as Sungrow Power Supply [7]

Group 1: Power Equipment - The AIDC sector continues to show strong sentiment, with companies disclosing new product developments such as SST and HVDC, leading to valuation premiums for new technologies [2] - The high demand for AIDC is expected to persist, with a focus on the release of high-pressure equipment and the extension of the high-pressure equipment boom cycle due to the Yaxia project [2] - Exports in the power transformer sector are projected to grow over 40% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong overseas demand [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery - Opportunities in the lithium battery sector arise from the upcoming peak season and unexpected growth in energy storage, with many stocks being key components of the ChiNext board [4] - The focus is on low-valuation leading companies with stable performance, as well as elastic stocks like 6F that are expected to see price increases [4] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The implementation of the Pricing Law supports the photovoltaic industry chain, ensuring that sales do not fall below full cost, thus providing strong price support [8] - From September, silicon material production and sales will be limited, with expectations for stable output and restricted sales, leading to a potential narrowing of losses for companies with sufficient inventory [8] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve, contingent on unexpected changes in supply and demand dynamics [8] Group 4: Energy Storage - Companies with strong performance in the energy storage sector are expected to maintain their momentum, supported by recent capacity pricing policies and favorable long-term demand from new energy sources [12] Group 5: Wind Power - The wind power sector has shown recovery in profitability, with most major turbine manufacturers entering a recovery phase, and turbine prices have increased by 5-10% since November 2024 [13] - Component manufacturers have reported significant growth in Q2, confirming the high demand in the industry [13] - The offshore wind sector is expected to see high growth in installations, driven by successful project advancements [13] Group 6: Hydrogen Energy - North American SOFC leaders are transitioning from 1GW to 2GW production capacity, with a strong outlook for stock price growth due to high visibility of future orders [15] - Long-term cost reductions in SOFC technology are anticipated to enhance its economic advantages, potentially increasing market penetration significantly [15] Group 7: Robotics - The human-shaped robot sector has seen a decline in short-term interest, but future developments are expected as new technologies and supply chains mature [15] - Domestic applications are anticipated to see growth as automation solutions are implemented in production lines, with significant developments expected by the end of 2025 [15]