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国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税 中、外资机构如何调整投资策略?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 16:59
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, has caused significant market reactions, leading to a surge in demand for existing bonds that remain exempt from this tax [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The new tax policy is expected to create a "buy old bonds" trend, as investors prefer existing bonds that are exempt from the new tax [2][5]. - Following the announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell, indicating a preference for holding existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5]. - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point, with current yields reported at 1.6975% and 1.919% respectively [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Strategies - The new tax policy is anticipated to enhance the predictability of the bond market, potentially leading to a shift in investment towards credit bonds and public funds that are not affected by the new tax [2][3][4]. - Institutions believe that the new regulations may lead to a widening yield spread between new and old bonds, with estimates suggesting a 5 to 10 basis point difference [2][3]. - Public funds are expected to benefit from the tax advantages compared to self-managed accounts, as they remain exempt from both income tax and VAT [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The restoration of VAT is seen as a move to guide funds from the interest rate market to the stock and credit markets, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6]. - The policy aims to reduce the distortions in the yield curve and interest rate risks that have accumulated due to the previous tax exemptions [6][7]. - The estimated tax revenue from the restoration of VAT is projected to be approximately 4 billion RMB in 2025 and 25 billion RMB in 2026, although this is considered limited compared to the overall tax revenue [6][7].
国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税,中外资机构如何调整投资策略?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 12:53
Core Insights - The new tax regulation on interest income from newly issued government bonds, effective from August 8, 2025, has triggered a surge in demand for existing bonds, leading to a strong performance in both the stock and bond markets [1][5] - The policy is expected to have a limited short-term impact on the overall bond market direction, with institutions believing that it will not alter the long-term trends [5][6] Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement of the tax on new bond issuances led to a "rush for old bonds," with institutions favoring existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5] - Following the policy announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell, indicating a preference for holding existing bonds [2][5] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point, reflecting market adjustments to the new tax expectations [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The new tax regulation is seen as beneficial for credit bonds and money market instruments, with institutions likely to increase allocations to these areas [3][4] - Public funds are expected to benefit from the tax advantages compared to proprietary trading accounts, as public funds remain exempt from the new tax [3][4] - The potential for increased investment in the "southbound bond connect" is noted, as it remains unaffected by the new tax [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Institutions believe that the new tax policy will not significantly alter the long-term trajectory of the bond market, with expectations of a bifurcation between new and old bonds [5][6] - The policy aims to guide funds from the bond market to the stock market and credit markets, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6] - The restoration of the tax is projected to contribute approximately 4 billion RMB to fiscal revenue in 2025 and around 25 billion RMB by 2026, although this is considered limited compared to the overall tax revenue [6][7]
香港财库局:深化内地与香港金融市场联通 促进资金、产品、机构和人才的双向流动
智通财经网· 2025-06-13 12:55
Group 1: Financial Market Connectivity - The Hong Kong government is committed to deepening the financial market connectivity between Mainland China and Hong Kong, promoting the two-way flow of funds, products, institutions, and talent [1] - Hong Kong plans to launch Mainland government bond futures and expand the investor eligibility for the Southbound Bond Connect to include more non-bank financial institutions [1] Group 2: Capital Market Growth - As of May 2023, the total market capitalization of the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 40.9 trillion, a 24% increase year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading volume in the first five months of 2023 exceeded HKD 240 billion, more than doubling compared to the same period last year [2] - The amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first five months of 2023 reached HKD 77.7 billion, a more than sevenfold increase year-on-year [2] - Northbound trading under the Stock Connect averaged RMB 176.08 billion daily, a 33% increase year-on-year, while Southbound trading averaged HKD 108.88 billion, a 191% increase [2] Group 3: Bond Market Development - Hong Kong is projected to be the largest international bond issuance center in Asia in 2024, with total issuance expected to exceed USD 130 billion, a 50% year-on-year increase [3] - The total issuance of offshore RMB bonds in Hong Kong reached RMB 1,071.6 billion in 2024, a growth of over 36% [3] - The Hong Kong government has included all local government debt securities issued in Hong Kong under the profit tax exemption, enhancing the attractiveness for local governments to issue bonds [3] Group 4: Liquidity Support Initiatives - Hong Kong has collaborated with the People's Bank of China to launch a RMB trade financing liquidity support scheme with a total quota of RMB 100 billion, aiding banks in providing cross-border RMB financing services [4]