Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, has caused significant market reactions, leading to a surge in demand for existing bonds that remain exempt from this tax [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The new tax policy is expected to create a "buy old bonds" trend, as investors prefer existing bonds that are exempt from the new tax [2][5]. - Following the announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell, indicating a preference for holding existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5]. - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point, with current yields reported at 1.6975% and 1.919% respectively [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Strategies - The new tax policy is anticipated to enhance the predictability of the bond market, potentially leading to a shift in investment towards credit bonds and public funds that are not affected by the new tax [2][3][4]. - Institutions believe that the new regulations may lead to a widening yield spread between new and old bonds, with estimates suggesting a 5 to 10 basis point difference [2][3]. - Public funds are expected to benefit from the tax advantages compared to self-managed accounts, as they remain exempt from both income tax and VAT [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The restoration of VAT is seen as a move to guide funds from the interest rate market to the stock and credit markets, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6]. - The policy aims to reduce the distortions in the yield curve and interest rate risks that have accumulated due to the previous tax exemptions [6][7]. - The estimated tax revenue from the restoration of VAT is projected to be approximately 4 billion RMB in 2025 and 25 billion RMB in 2026, although this is considered limited compared to the overall tax revenue [6][7].

Core Insights - The new tax regulation on interest income from newly issued government bonds, effective from August 8, 2025, has triggered a surge in demand for existing bonds, leading to a strong performance in both the stock and bond markets [1][5] - The policy is expected to have a limited short-term impact on the overall bond market direction, with institutions believing that it will not alter the long-term trends [5][6] Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement of the tax on new bond issuances led to a "rush for old bonds," with institutions favoring existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5] - Following the policy announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell, indicating a preference for holding existing bonds [2][5] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point, reflecting market adjustments to the new tax expectations [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The new tax regulation is seen as beneficial for credit bonds and money market instruments, with institutions likely to increase allocations to these areas [3][4] - Public funds are expected to benefit from the tax advantages compared to proprietary trading accounts, as public funds remain exempt from the new tax [3][4] - The potential for increased investment in the "southbound bond connect" is noted, as it remains unaffected by the new tax [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Institutions believe that the new tax policy will not significantly alter the long-term trajectory of the bond market, with expectations of a bifurcation between new and old bonds [5][6] - The policy aims to guide funds from the bond market to the stock market and credit markets, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6] - The restoration of the tax is projected to contribute approximately 4 billion RMB to fiscal revenue in 2025 and around 25 billion RMB by 2026, although this is considered limited compared to the overall tax revenue [6][7]

来源：石榴询财 上周末，财政部发布新规，从 8 月 8日起，新买的国债、地方债、金融债利息要交增值税。 以这些债券为核心底层的公募债基、银行理财，会有什么样的影响？ 01 去年底，老南就在《2025年如何理财》中提醒了债券25年会比较难受，在"16号内参"里也写了很多篇， 提醒过去两年债基的好日子，基本结束了。 债基，包括以债券为主要底层的银行理财，也包括以债券为主要底层的理财类保险，就进入 痛苦期了。 年化收益，做点信用利差，再拉点久期，一年也就2%多一点了。 1月16日的《央妈重拳维稳，聊下债券和红利ETF》提醒： 债券过去两年的好日子基本也结束了，随着收益率快速下滑，资本利得的收益已经透支了未 来，未来也就可怜的票息收入了。 相信半年下来，看看你持有的债基、银行理财的收益，大家应该能理解，为啥老南半年前就在给大家预 警了。然后，这两天债市又来了个税收小利空。 这次新规分新老划断，今年8月8日前发的债（包括之后续发的老券），利息免税到期；但这之后新发的 债，利息就得交税了。 税率分两档：金融机构自营类按6%交，基金、理财这类资管产品按3%交。 | 所得税 | 普通自贸机构 | | 公基基金 | | 普通资 ...