2026年大量存款到期，低利率时代下，"固收+"产品或成资 金新去向，有望迎来爆发式增长。 作者：王海言 封图：图虫创意 随着2026年大量居民定期存款到期，以公募基金"固收+"为代表的中低风险资管产品将承接多少 到期的定期存款？ 1月15日，中国人民银行相关负责人在新闻发布会上表示，2026年将有规模较大的三年期及五年 期等长期存款到期重新定价。中金公司的研究报告指出，测算居民定期存款2026年到期规模约75 万亿元，其中1年期及以上存款到期约67万亿元，高于市场50万亿左右的测算；估算2026年居民 全部和1年期以上定期存款到期相比2025年增长分别为12%和17%，同比增加8万亿元和10万亿 元*。考虑到当前消费意愿仍相对偏弱以及房地产需求相对有限，预计上述活化资金或大概率将流 向投资领域，部分银行存款"搬家"或已成市场共识。 如果说宏观环境和风险偏好是部分存款资金流向"固收+"的重要动力，经过多年发展提升和投资者 教育，"固收+"的产品和理念被越来越多投资者接受，则是另一个水到渠成的因素。 2025年以来，在权益市场结构性机会显现、赚钱效应相对较不错的背景下，渠道端的银行理财子 公司与公募基金也积极推 ...

随着2026年大量居民定期存款到期，以公募基金"固收+"为代表的中低风险资管产品将承接多少到期的 定期存款？ 1月15日，中国人民银行相关负责人在新闻发布会上表示，2026年将有规模较大的三年期及五年期等长 期存款到期重新定价。中金公司（601995）的研究报告指出，测算居民定期存款2026年到期规模约75万 亿元，其中1年期及以上存款到期约67万亿元，高于市场50万亿左右的测算；估算2026年居民全部和1年 期以上定期存款到期相比2025年增长分别为12%和17%，同比增加8万亿元和10万亿元*。考虑到当前消 费意愿仍相对偏弱以及房地产需求相对有限，预计上述活化资金或大概率将流向投资领域，部分银行存 款"搬家"或已成市场共识。 与此同时，已发展超过10年的公募基金"固收+"产品经过快速起步、调整优化以及再度爆发，无论是满 足适配投资者需求，还是优质产品的资产配置、价值发现能力都步入新阶段，"固收+"会在2026年再次 成为投资者的"心头好"，迎来爆发式增长吗？ 多因素或有望推动"固收+"承接到期存款 2026年，宏观经济或将延续边际改善态势，整体呈现"修复式增长"格局，在此背景下，银行储户风险偏 好或整体保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a strong rise in the technology sector led by AI and self-sufficiency, while the bond market continues to adjust due to multiple factors, prompting investors to shift towards "fixed income +" strategies for risk-return balance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q3, the total scale of "fixed income +" funds reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 513.997 billion yuan from the end of Q2, becoming the main growth driver in the public fund market [2]. - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, and tight liquidity at the end of the quarter [1][2]. Group 2: Company Performance -博时基金's "fixed income +" segment has shown remarkable performance, achieving both scale and performance growth, with its fixed income + funds exceeding 52 billion yuan by the end of Q3 [2][3]. - Several博时基金 products demonstrated strong capital-raising capabilities, with博时恒乐债券 reaching 18.924 billion yuan, a 259% increase from Q2, and博时稳健增利债券 growing from 39.3 million yuan to 1.0575 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 2590.84% [2]. Group 3: Fund Performance -博时基金's fixed income + products have shown strong performance, with six products achieving over 10% returns in the past year [2]. -博时转债增强债券 A achieved a return of 34.25%, significantly outperforming its benchmark return of 2.87%, resulting in an excess return of 31.38% [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies -博时基金 employs a comprehensive product matrix covering various risk profiles, including aggressive, balanced, and low-volatility strategies, to match different investor risk-return preferences [3]. - The aggressive strategy focuses on high-growth sectors such as technology and defense, while the balanced strategy aims for optimal risk-return through dynamic equity and bond allocation [4][5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The global economic slowdown and challenges in the Chinese economy, including real estate adjustments and fluctuating consumer confidence, are expected to impact market dynamics [7]. -博时基金 managers anticipate continued market differentiation, with a focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and growth potential in the upcoming quarter [8].

Group 1 - Macro Holdings (002379.SZ) released its semi-annual report for 2025 on August 15, 2025, indicating that as of August 14, 2025, 29 institutional investors disclosed holding shares, totaling 397 million shares, which accounts for 34.95% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, Shanghai Jiuku Investment Co., Ltd. - Jiuku Qiji No. 4 Private Securities Investment Fund, and others, with a combined holding ratio of 34.47%, reflecting an increase of 3.16 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, two public funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, including Southern CSI 2000 ETF and Yongying Huixiang Bond A, with a slight increase in holding ratio [2] - Two public funds decreased their holdings compared to the previous quarter, including China Europe Resource Selection Mixed Initiation A and ICBC Silver and Profit Mixed, with a slight decrease in holding ratio [2] - A total of 20 new public funds were disclosed this period, including Silver Hua Xin Jia Two-Year Holding Mixed, Silver Hua Xin Yi Flexible Configuration Mixed A, Wan Jia Selected A, and others [2] - One foreign fund increased its holdings compared to the previous period, namely Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with an increase of 2.42% [2] - One new foreign institution disclosed this period, which is the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, while one foreign institution, Swiss GAIN Capital - Proprietary Funds, was not disclosed in the previous quarter [2]

Core Insights - Puyuan Precision Electric (688337.SH) reported its 2024 annual report, revealing that as of March 31, 2025, 257 institutional investors held a total of 121 million shares, accounting for 62.41% of the company's total equity [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively held 47.83% of the shares, with a decrease of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Institutional Holdings - The number of institutional investors holding Puyuan Precision Electric shares increased to 257, with a total holding of 121 million shares [1] - The top ten institutional investors include various investment firms and funds, with the largest being Suzhou Puyuan Precision Electric Investment Co., Ltd. [1] - The proportion of shares held by the top ten institutional investors decreased by 2.08 percentage points from the last quarter [1] Public Fund Activity - One public fund, E Fund Active Growth Mixed Fund, increased its holdings, while eight public funds reduced their holdings, with a total decrease of 2.35% [2] - A total of 238 new public funds disclosed their holdings in Puyuan Precision Electric, indicating increased interest in the company [2] - Five public funds did not disclose their holdings in the current period, reflecting some turnover in investor interest [2] Social Security Fund - One social security fund, E Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Social Security Fund 17042 Portfolio, disclosed its holdings in Puyuan Precision Electric [2]