证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 美国 7 月非农就业数据大幅遇冷，"避险交 易"回归黄金新一轮涨势开启 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（7 月 28 日-8 月 1 日），有色板块本周下跌 4.62%，在全部一级行 业中排名靠后。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块下跌 3.81%，金属新材料板块下跌 3.93%，贵金属板块下跌 4.11%，能源金属板块下跌 5.41%，小金属板块下跌 7.11%。工业金属方面，随着"反内卷"市场情绪有所回 落，基本面交易回归，淡季背景下多数商品价格回调。贵金属方面，美国 7 月非农 就业数据大幅不及预期，美国 10 年期国债收益率大幅下行 16.6bp 至 4.22%，市场 "避险交易"回归，黄金价格新一轮涨势料将开启。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：铜关税落地，隐形库存料将逐步显性化，铜价短期料将走弱。截至 8 月 1 日，伦 铜报收 9,633 美元/吨，周环比下跌 1.66%；沪铜报收 78,400 元/吨，周环比下跌 1.07%。 供给端，本周进口铜矿 TC 小幅上调 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices strengthened while copper prices declined, with COMEX gold rising by 3.65% and COMEX copper falling by 1.68% [2][3] - Risk appetite has decreased, leading to pressure on copper prices due to geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. warnings regarding Israel and Iran [3][6] - Increased risk aversion has led to a resurgence in gold prices, driven by lower-than-expected CPI data and escalating conflicts in the Middle East [4][20] Group 2 - In the copper market, COMEX copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable decline attributed to geopolitical tensions and a cautious market sentiment [5][6] - The domestic refined copper consumption showed signs of weakening, which has made bullish sentiment cautious, although overall demand remains resilient [6][50] - The copper concentrate processing fee has shown stability, with recent market indicators suggesting that prices may have reached a bottom [9][12] Group 3 - In the precious metals market, gold significantly outperformed silver, with COMEX gold prices ranging between $3,313 and $3,468 per ounce [20][21] - The inventory levels for COMEX gold decreased by approximately 330,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 3.74 million ounces [36][41] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6 tons to 940 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold [41]

Group 1 - The gold stock sector is experiencing significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Western Gold, Mankalon, and others, indicating strong market interest in gold-related investments [1] - The Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has heavily invested in gold-related companies, achieving a year-to-date increase of 25.23% as of May 30, 2025, reflecting the positive impact of rising gold prices on these stocks [1] - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking through $3,380 per ounce and COMEX gold futures rising by 2.74% to $3,406.4 per ounce, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [1] Group 2 - Short-term market sentiment is supported by potential risks from U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," leading to a rise in gold prices, while long-term uncertainties in global tariff policies and regional politics continue to bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund focuses on diversifying investments in A-share gold-related companies, allowing for exposure to the benefits of rising gold prices while mitigating risks associated with holding individual gold stocks [2]

Group 1 - A senior Federal Reserve official indicated that large-scale bond bets in April backfired, potentially causing the largest surge in U.S. Treasury yields since 1987 [1] - The turmoil began after President Trump announced significant new tariff measures on April 2, leading investors to initially flock to U.S. government bonds for safety, but yields reversed sharply shortly thereafter [1][2] - The 30-year Treasury yield rose nearly 50 basis points within a week, marking the largest increase since 1987 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Roberto Perli noted that the unwinding of popular swap spread trades likely exacerbated liquidity tightening in the Treasury market [1][2] - Reports indicated that leveraged investors were caught off guard by the sudden volatility in the Treasury market [1] - Perli emphasized that the deterioration of liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is real and significant [3]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ： （4.7-4.16），全球大类资产表现分化，黄金>发达>债券>新兴。（4.2- 4.4），对等关税落地当周，避险&风险资产普跌。（4.7-4.16），对等关税对于全球资产冲击的程度有所缓和， 但全球大类资产主线仍然围绕"避险交易"：避险资产的代表黄金已经率先企稳并大幅领涨；风险资产中，发达国 家和工业金属有所回补，而新兴市场表现仍偏弱。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 我们在 25.4.9 《谋定而后动，做多的三个时机》 中提示：事件冲击的大波动中，全力做多的时机通常有三个：（1）胜 率提升—本轮要看到贸易摩擦缓和（跟踪观察）；（2）估值极便宜（中国资产不贵）；（3）流动性问题导致筹 码出清（可以是阶段性）带来机会。短期维持全球资产宜保持避险策略（中债瑞郎黄金）的判断，仍然建议以全 天候策略框架构建资产组合。中长期而言，关税强化了新范式的三大底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、 AI产 ...