宏观经济方面，美国10月FHFA房价指数环比增长好于预期。美国10月FHFA房价指数环比增长0.4%， 高于预期值0.1%和前值-0.1%。 美国首申失业金人数大幅走低。美国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数19.9万人，跌破20万接近历史 最低水平，前值21.5万人，预期21.8万人。 美国炼油厂开工率略有上升。2025年12月26日当周，美国炼油厂开工率达到94.7%，相较于前周 94.6%，略有上升。 美国粗钢产量当周同比持续下降。2025年12月27日，美国粗钢产量当周同比1.8%，相较于前周3.6%进 一步下降。 主要指数相关情况 1. 一周指数表现 上周（20251229-20260102），标普油气指数整周上涨3.11%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌1.71%，标普 500指数整周下跌1.03%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨，其中标普500能源领涨3.29%，标普500非 必需消费领跌3.17%。 | SPSIOP. SPI | 标普油气 | 3.11% | | --- | --- | --- | | NDX. GI | 纳斯达克100 | -1.71% | | SPX. GI | 标普50 ...

宏观经济方面，美国2025年三季度实际GDP大超预期，消费韧性和进口缩量为主要支撑。美国三季度实 际GDP年化季环比增长4.3%，高于预期值3.3%和前值3.8%。 美国10月耐用品订单弱于预期，扣除运输类的核心订单环比增幅边际走弱。美国10月耐用品订单环比下 降2.2%，低于预期值-1.5%和前值0.7%；美国10月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比增长0.5%，高于 预期值0.3%，低于前值1.1%；美国10月扣除运输类耐用品订单环比增长0.2%，低于预期值0.3%和前值 0.7%。 主要指数相关情况 1、一周指数表现 上周（12月22日-26日），标普油气指数整周上涨0.27%，纳斯达克100指数整周上涨1.18%，标普500指 数整周上涨1.40%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有10个上涨，其中标普500材料领涨2.38%，标普500必需消 费领跌0.10%。 | SPSIOP. SPI | 标普油气 | 0. 279 | | --- | --- | --- | | NDX. GI | 纳斯达克100 | 1.18% | | SPX. GI | 标普500 | 1. 40% | | S5MATR. SPI | ...

美国11月CPI意外走弱。美国11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，不及预期值3.1%和前值3%；美国11月核心CPI同 比上涨2.6%，不及预期值和前值3%。 宏观经济方面，美国11月非农新增就业、失业率超预期上行。美国11月非农就业人口新增6.4万人，高 于预期值5万人，低于前值11.9万人。美国11月失业率录得4.6%，高于预期值4.5%和前值4.4%。 美国10月零售销售零增长，主要受汽车、汽油销售额下降影响。美国10月零售销售环比0%，低于预期 值和前值0.1%；美国10月零售销售（除汽车）环比增长0.4%，高于预期值0.2%和前值10.1%；美国10月 零售销售（除汽车与汽油）环比增长0.5%，高于预期值0.5%和前值0%。 美国11月成屋年化环比边际下降。美国11月成屋销售总数年化环比0.5%，低于预期值1.2%和前值 1.5%；美国11月成屋销售总数年化为413万户，低于预期值415万户，高于前值411万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1. 一周指数表现 上周（12月15日-19日），标普油气指数整周下跌4.85%，纳斯达克100指数整周上涨0.59%，标普500指 数整周上涨0.10%，其覆盖的11个行 ...

宏观经济方面，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺意外上升，主要由零售行业大幅拉动。美国10月JOLTS职位空 缺上升至767万人，高于预期值711.7万人和前值765.8万人。 主要指数相关情况 数据来源：Wind 美国11月NFIB中小企业乐观程度指数有所回升，销售预期和招聘需求回暖。美国1月NFIB中小企业乐 观程度指数录得99%，高于预期值98.3%和前值98.2%。 美国12月Sentix投资信心指数回升。2025年12月，美国Sentix投资信心指数为9.7，较前一月的4.0有所回 升。 配置建议 美股：上周美联储如期降息并意外扩表，但由于甲骨文和博通再度引发市场对AI投资泡沫的担忧，美 股下行。12月会议中委员会也通过释放一些鹰派信号来平衡此次降息，委员会修改了政策声明，以暗示 进一步降息的门槛已经提高。发布会后，市场降息预期回调，目前CME预期2026年降息次数从3次降至 2.2次。 美联储内部继续分歧，理事米兰再次投出反对票，其支持更大幅度降息50bps，而古尔斯比和施密德投 票不降息。另外从2025年的点阵图中可以看到有6位与会者以写下倾向于维持政策利率不变的方式表达 了鹰派的"软反对"，加上一票 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得52.3%，好于预期值52%和前值51%。美国12月密歇根大 学1年通胀预期初值录得4.1%，低于预期值和前值4.5%；美国12月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值录得 3.2%，低于预期值和前值3.4%。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（12月1日-5日），标普油气指数整周上涨1.97%，纳斯达克100指数整周上涨1.01%，标普500指数 整周上涨0.31%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有6个上涨，其中标普500能源领涨1.40%，标普500公共事业领 跌4.52%。 | 数据来源：Wind，指数历史表现不预示未来收益 | | --- | 美国9月PCE物价指数在预期内维持高位，但个人消费支出环比增幅边际回落。美国9月PCE物价指数同 比上涨2.8%持平预期，高于前值2.7%；美国9月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，持平预期和前值。美国9 月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，持平预期，低于前值2.9%；美国9月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨 0.2%，持平预期和前值。美国9月个人消费支出环比上涨0.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of Nasdaq 100 index ETFs increased significantly today, with a total trading volume of 3.647 billion yuan, marking a 56.18% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Trading Volume Summary - The trading volume of GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941) reached 1.441 billion yuan, an increase of 655 million yuan, representing an 83.39% rise from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Guotai Nasdaq 100 (QDII-ETF) (513100) was 604 million yuan, up by 142 million yuan, with a 30.74% increase [1] - The trading volume of Nasdaq 100 (513110) was 252 million yuan, increasing by 136 million yuan, which is a 118.11% rise [1] - Other notable increases in trading volume include Huashan Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159632) with a 97.06% increase and Dacheng Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159513) with a 74.72% increase [1] Market Performance Summary - As of market close, the average decline for ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 index was 0.59%, with GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941) and Dacheng Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159513) experiencing the largest declines of 0.90% and 0.87% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The QDII funds are experiencing a surge in demand despite multiple warnings about high premium risks, with many funds suspending subscriptions to protect existing investors [1][3]. Group 1: QDII Fund Premium Risks - On November 27, 15 public funds issued 38 warnings regarding high premium risks for QDII funds, affecting over 20 products, primarily linked to indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 [1]. - The Huaxia Nikkei 225 ETF issued 32 premium risk warnings in November, while the Invesco Nasdaq Technology ETF issued over 20 warnings [1]. - As of November 27, 50 out of 85 QDII-ETF funds remained in a premium state, with the highest premium rate at 17.52% for the Invesco Nasdaq Technology ETF [1][2]. Group 2: Subscription Suspensions and Fund Management - A total of 165 QDII funds have suspended subscriptions or large subscriptions as of November 27, with some funds implementing strict purchase limits due to limited QDII quotas [3]. - The Huazhong Mitsubishi Nikkei 225 ETF has progressively reduced its daily purchase limit from 100 yuan to 10 yuan [3]. - The limited QDII quotas have led to strict allocation based on fund performance, with high premium products facing tighter purchase restrictions to prevent losses for new investors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The high premium rates are attributed to the disappearance of the arbitrage mechanism for QDII-ETFs, as the redemption process involves additional costs and uncertainties [4]. - Investors are advised to remain calm and avoid panic buying due to product subscription limits, focusing instead on products with open subscription channels and lower premium rates [5]. - The recent volatility in the U.S. stock market, influenced by Federal Reserve signals and concerns over AI bubbles, may continue to affect market dynamics in December [5].

（来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 来源：市场投研资讯 美国9月非农新增就业大超预期，失业率小幅抬升，小时工资环比增速放缓。美国9月非农就业人口新增 11.9万人，高于预期值5.1万人和前值-0.4万人。美国9月失业率为4.4%，高于预期值和前值4.3%。美国9 月平均每小时工资环比增长0.2%，低于预期值0.3%和前值0.4%。美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长 3.8%，高于预期值3.7%，与前值持平。 美国服务业延续扩张，制造业景气度略低于预期。美国11月标普服务业PMI录得55%，高于预期值 54.6%和前值54.8%；美国11月标普制造业PMI录得51.9%，略低于预期值52%和前值52.5%。 美国10月成屋销售超预期上行。美国10月成屋销售总数年化环比增长1.2%，高于预期值0.5%，略低于 前值1.3%；美国10月成屋销售总数年化为410万户，高于预期值408万户和前值405万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（11月17日-21日），标普油气指数整周下跌3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌3.07%，标普500指 数整周下跌1.95%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨， ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. fell to 98.2%, below the expected 98.3% and the previous value of 98.8%, indicating a deterioration in small business owners' expectations for profits and economic growth [1] - President Trump signed a temporary funding bill on November 12, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted 43 days. Following the shutdown, a backlog of economic data will be released starting November 20, including September non-farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data [1] Group 2: Market Performance - For the week of November 10-14, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.30%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.21%. The S&P 500 Index saw a slight increase of 0.08%, with five of its eleven sectors rising, led by the S&P 500 Healthcare sector, which increased by 3.87%, and the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector, which fell by 2.74% [2][3] - As of last week, 92% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 earnings, with 81% exceeding expectations. The market is particularly focused on Nvidia's upcoming quarterly report [2] Group 3: Investment Products - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is designed to track the U.S. S&P 500 Index, which includes over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks [4] - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with the Information Technology sector making up 57.87% of the index, indicating a strong focus on high-tech companies [4]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of Nasdaq 100 Index ETFs reached 7.193 billion yuan today, an increase of 2.075 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 40.54% [1] Trading Volume Summary - The GTAA Nasdaq 100 (QDII-ETF) (513100) had a trading volume of 1.637 billion yuan, up 649 million yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 65.68% [1] - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941) recorded a trading volume of 2.052 billion yuan, an increase of 494 million yuan, with a growth rate of 31.71% [1] - The CMB Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159659) saw a trading volume of 692 million yuan, up 337 million yuan, with a growth rate of 94.89% [1] - The top increases in trading volume were seen in the CMB Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159659) and the HTF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660), with increases of 94.89% and 86.47% respectively [1] Market Performance - As of market close, the average decline for ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index was 3.56%, with the largest declines recorded by the HTF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) and the CMB Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159659), which fell by 4.99% and 4.08% respectively [1]