（来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 来源：市场投研资讯 美国9月非农新增就业大超预期，失业率小幅抬升，小时工资环比增速放缓。美国9月非农就业人口新增 11.9万人，高于预期值5.1万人和前值-0.4万人。美国9月失业率为4.4%，高于预期值和前值4.3%。美国9 月平均每小时工资环比增长0.2%，低于预期值0.3%和前值0.4%。美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长 3.8%，高于预期值3.7%，与前值持平。 美国服务业延续扩张，制造业景气度略低于预期。美国11月标普服务业PMI录得55%，高于预期值 54.6%和前值54.8%；美国11月标普制造业PMI录得51.9%，略低于预期值52%和前值52.5%。 美国10月成屋销售超预期上行。美国10月成屋销售总数年化环比增长1.2%，高于预期值0.5%，略低于 前值1.3%；美国10月成屋销售总数年化为410万户，高于预期值408万户和前值405万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（11月17日-21日），标普油气指数整周下跌3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌3.07%，标普500指 数整周下跌1.95%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨， ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. fell to 98.2%, below the expected 98.3% and the previous value of 98.8%, indicating a deterioration in small business owners' expectations for profits and economic growth [1] - President Trump signed a temporary funding bill on November 12, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted 43 days. Following the shutdown, a backlog of economic data will be released starting November 20, including September non-farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data [1] Group 2: Market Performance - For the week of November 10-14, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.30%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.21%. The S&P 500 Index saw a slight increase of 0.08%, with five of its eleven sectors rising, led by the S&P 500 Healthcare sector, which increased by 3.87%, and the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector, which fell by 2.74% [2][3] - As of last week, 92% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 earnings, with 81% exceeding expectations. The market is particularly focused on Nvidia's upcoming quarterly report [2] Group 3: Investment Products - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is designed to track the U.S. S&P 500 Index, which includes over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks [4] - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with the Information Technology sector making up 57.87% of the index, indicating a strong focus on high-tech companies [4]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of Nasdaq 100 Index ETFs reached 7.193 billion yuan today, an increase of 2.075 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 40.54% [1] Trading Volume Summary - The GTAA Nasdaq 100 (QDII-ETF) (513100) had a trading volume of 1.637 billion yuan, up 649 million yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 65.68% [1] - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941) recorded a trading volume of 2.052 billion yuan, an increase of 494 million yuan, with a growth rate of 31.71% [1] - The CMB Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159659) saw a trading volume of 692 million yuan, up 337 million yuan, with a growth rate of 94.89% [1] - The top increases in trading volume were seen in the CMB Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159659) and the HTF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660), with increases of 94.89% and 86.47% respectively [1] Market Performance - As of market close, the average decline for ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index was 3.56%, with the largest declines recorded by the HTF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) and the CMB Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159659), which fell by 4.99% and 4.08% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of Nasdaq 100 index ETFs reached 7.55 billion yuan today, an increase of 2.069 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 37.75% [1] Trading Volume Summary - The trading volume of GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941) was 2.34 billion yuan, up by 799 million yuan, with a growth rate of 51.85% [1] - The trading volume of Huaxia Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (513300) was 1.008 billion yuan, an increase of 249 million yuan, with a growth rate of 32.75% [1] - The trading volume of Guotai Nasdaq 100 (QDII-ETF) (513100) was 1.313 billion yuan, up by 236 million yuan, with a growth rate of 21.91% [1] - Nasdaq 100 (513110) and E Fund Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159696) saw significant increases in trading volume, with growth rates of 67.82% and 55.06% respectively [1] Market Performance Summary - As of market close, the average decline for ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 index was 1.12%, with Guotai Nasdaq 100 (QDII-ETF) (513100) and Dacheng Nasdaq 100 ETF (QDII) (159513) experiencing the largest declines of 1.44% and 1.32% respectively [1]

Macroeconomic Data - The US September CPI data did not exceed expectations, with core inflation slightly declining while super core inflation remained resilient. The CPI year-on-year increased by 3%, higher than the previous value of 2.9% but lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI year-on-year also increased by 3%, lower than both the previous and expected values of 3.1%. Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4% and the expected 0.4%. The core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% and the expected 0.3% [1]. PMI Data - Global PMI data showed divergence, with the US PMI rebounding above expectations, while the Eurozone manufacturing returned to the growth line, and manufacturing conditions in Germany and Japan remained poor. The US October Markit Composite PMI recorded 54.8, exceeding the expected 53.5 and previous 53.9. The US October Markit Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, slightly above the expected and previous values of 52. The US October Markit Services PMI recorded 55.2, higher than the expected 53.5 and previous 54.2. The Eurozone October Composite PMI preliminary value was 52.2, above the expected 51.1 and previous 51.2. The Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI recorded 50, exceeding both expected and previous values of 49.8. The Eurozone October Services PMI recorded 52.6, higher than the expected 51.2 and previous 51.3. Germany's October Composite PMI recorded 53.8, better than the expected 51.5 and previous 52. The October Manufacturing PMI for Germany was 49.6, slightly above the expected and previous values of 49.5. The October Services PMI for Germany was 54.5, exceeding the expected 51 and previous 51.5. Japan's October Composite PMI recorded 50.9, lower than the previous 51.3. Japan's October Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.3, lower than the previous 48.5. Japan's October Services PMI recorded 52.4, lower than the previous 53.3 [2]. Housing Market - US September existing home sales showed a marginal recovery, meeting expectations. The total number of existing home sales annualized increased by 1.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of -0.2%. The total number of existing home sales annualized recorded 4.06 million units, consistent with expectations and higher than the previous value of 4 million units [3]. Major Index Performance - In the week from October 20 to 24, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.91%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 2.18%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 1.92%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 9 sectors rose, with Information Technology leading at 2.75%, while Consumer Staples lagged at -0.59% [4]. Market Outlook - US stocks continued to reach new highs, supported by the easing of tariffs and weaker-than-expected CPI data. The CPI's delayed release indicated a slowdown in inflation, alleviating market anxiety and increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October. This rate cut is expected to aid traditional private demand, such as real estate and manufacturing investments, alongside fiscal stimulus and ongoing technology investment trends, suggesting a gradual recovery in the US credit cycle. As of last week, 29% of S&P 500 constituents had reported Q3 earnings, with 84% exceeding expectations. In addition to earnings growth, close attention is being paid to corporate cash expenditure outlooks [6].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September recorded 98.8%, below the expected 100.6% and the previous value of 100.8% [1] - The NAHB Housing Market Index for October exceeded expectations, recording 37, higher than the expected 33 and the previous value of 32 [2] Group 2: Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 0.31% over the past week, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 2.46% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 1.70% [3][4] - All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index saw gains, with the Communication Equipment sector leading at 3.64% [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - Following a decline, U.S. stocks rebounded last week, with gold prices reaching nearly $4,400, setting a new historical record [5] - Concerns about credit quality arose from reports of regional banks, but the market recovered due to easing tariffs and solid performance from several regional banks [5] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. stocks, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks [5]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, starting from October 1, 2025 [1] - The U.S.-China trade tensions are escalating, with the U.S. expanding export controls and adding 16 Chinese tech companies to the entity list [1] - In response, China is tightening export controls on rare earths and other materials, and has announced special port fees for U.S. vessels [1] - Former President Trump announced plans to impose significant tariffs on China starting November 1, 2025 [1] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The consumer expectations index for October was recorded at 51.2, falling short of the expected 51.4 and previous 51.7 [1] - One-year inflation expectations for October were slightly lower at 4.6, compared to the expected 4.7 and previous 4.7 [1] - Five-year inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7, matching both the expected and previous values [1] Market Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94% over the week from October 6 to October 10 [2] - The Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27% during the same period [2] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of its eleven sectors showing gains, led by utilities at 1.42% and energy down by 3.98% [2][3] Investment Direction - The recent tariff threats from Trump have triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and increases in gold prices [4] - The impact of these tariffs on U.S.-China trade and the economy is considered less severe than in April, with market reactions being more desensitized [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. stock growth, tracking the S&P 500 Index which covers over 500 representative companies [4] - The BoShi Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) focuses on the technology sector, which constitutes 57.87% of the index, featuring high-quality tech companies [5]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of Nasdaq 100 Index ETFs reached 5.208 billion yuan today, marking a week-on-week increase of 36.34% [1] Trading Volume Summary - The trading volume of GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941) was 1.372 billion yuan, up by 460 million yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 50.38% [1] - The trading volume of Huatai-PB Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) was 222 million yuan, up by 157 million yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 241.54% [1] - The trading volume of Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) was 549 million yuan, up by 138 million yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 33.64% [1] - Other notable increases in trading volume include E Fund Nasdaq 100 ETF (159696) with an increase of 88.12% [1] Market Performance Summary - As of the market close, the average increase for Nasdaq 100 Index ETFs was 0.50%, with Huatai-PB Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) leading with a rise of 2.12% [2] - The largest decline was seen in GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941), which fell by 0.07% [2] - Other ETFs with notable performance include Guotai Nasdaq 100 (QDII-ETF) (513100) with an increase of 0.72% [2]

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - In August, US retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% and matching the previous value [1] - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7%, exceeding both the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.4% [1] - New housing starts in August fell significantly by 8.5% month-on-month, lower than the expected decline of 4.4% and the previous increase of 3.4%, totaling 1.307 million units [1] - Building permits in August also fell by 3.7%, not meeting the expected increase of 0.6% and worsening from the previous decline of 2.2%, with a total of 1.312 million permits issued [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of September 15-19, the S&P Oil & Gas Index decreased by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 2.22% and the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.22% [2] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 5 sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 3.37%, while real estate experienced a decline of 1.42% [2] Group 3: Investment Direction - Following the recent interest rate meeting, a new round of rate cuts is anticipated, with US stocks rising as a result [4] - The dot plot indicates that among 19 voting members, 9 expect one more rate cut this year, while another 9 anticipate two cuts, aligning with current market expectations [4] - The US economy may remain resilient, supported by strong AI sector investments and potential fiscal spending resuming in October, with traditional demand in manufacturing and real estate likely to respond quickly to monetary easing [4]

Macroeconomic Overview - US consumer inflation continues to rise, with the August CPI increasing by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% previously and in line with expectations [1] - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 3.1%, matching the previous value and expectations [1] - The August PPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.1% [1] - Consumer confidence in the US remains low, with the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 55.4, below the expected 58 and previous 58.2 [1] Market Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 0.33% over the week, while the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 1.86% and the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.59% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 10 sectors saw gains, with Information Technology leading at 3.09% and Consumer Staples declining by 0.15% [2][3] Investment Outlook - The recent non-farm employment data and moderate inflation figures have led the market to anticipate interest rate cuts starting in September, contributing to the rise in US stocks [2] - The market's expectation for rate cuts has slightly decreased compared to the previous week, but there remains a strong belief that cuts will commence in September [2] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to signal the beginning of a series of rate cuts, which could support US growth in Q4 [2]