（来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 来源：市场投研资讯 美国9月非农新增就业大超预期，失业率小幅抬升，小时工资环比增速放缓。美国9月非农就业人口新增 11.9万人，高于预期值5.1万人和前值-0.4万人。美国9月失业率为4.4%，高于预期值和前值4.3%。美国9 月平均每小时工资环比增长0.2%，低于预期值0.3%和前值0.4%。美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长 3.8%，高于预期值3.7%，与前值持平。 美国服务业延续扩张，制造业景气度略低于预期。美国11月标普服务业PMI录得55%，高于预期值 54.6%和前值54.8%；美国11月标普制造业PMI录得51.9%，略低于预期值52%和前值52.5%。 美国10月成屋销售超预期上行。美国10月成屋销售总数年化环比增长1.2%，高于预期值0.5%，略低于 前值1.3%；美国10月成屋销售总数年化为410万户，高于预期值408万户和前值405万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（11月17日-21日），标普油气指数整周下跌3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌3.07%，标普500指 数整周下跌1.95%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨， ...

统计显示，博时标普500ETF(513500)今日成交额6.67亿元，较上一交易日增加2.02亿元，环比增幅为 43.50%。 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议 ...

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议 统计显示，博时标普500ETF(513500)今日成交额9.64亿元，较上一交易日增加4.92亿元，环比增幅为 104.42%。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In October, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. fell to 98.2%, below the expected 98.3% and the previous value of 98.8%, indicating a deterioration in small business owners' expectations for profits and economic growth [1] - President Trump signed a temporary funding bill on November 12, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted 43 days. Following the shutdown, a backlog of economic data will be released starting November 20, including September non-farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data [1] Group 2: Market Performance - For the week of November 10-14, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.30%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.21%. The S&P 500 Index saw a slight increase of 0.08%, with five of its eleven sectors rising, led by the S&P 500 Healthcare sector, which increased by 3.87%, and the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector, which fell by 2.74% [2][3] - As of last week, 92% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 earnings, with 81% exceeding expectations. The market is particularly focused on Nvidia's upcoming quarterly report [2] Group 3: Investment Products - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is designed to track the U.S. S&P 500 Index, which includes over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks [4] - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with the Information Technology sector making up 57.87% of the index, indicating a strong focus on high-tech companies [4]

Core Insights - The recent surge in cross-border ETFs has led to significant premium risks, with 33 products issuing over 500 premium risk alerts since the fourth quarter began, particularly in US and Japan-themed products [2][4] - The Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted ETF has seen its IOPV premium rate exceed 10% for 25 consecutive trading days, indicating a persistent high premium status [2][5] - The overall scale of cross-border ETFs has increased by nearly 117% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the growth of A-share ETFs, which grew by approximately 28% in the same period [6][7] Premium Risk Alerts - As of November 18, 20 cross-border ETFs issued premium alerts, with the previous trading day seeing 22 alerts, highlighting a trend of frequent premium warnings [3][4] - The frequency of premium alerts has become normalized, with 11 products issuing over 20 alerts each since the start of the fourth quarter [4][5] - The premium situation is not isolated, as multiple products tracking popular indices like Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 are experiencing similar high premium rates [3][4] Market Dynamics - The premium phenomenon reflects a mismatch between QDII quotas and investor demand, alongside factors like index scarcity and foreign exchange volatility, contributing to supply-demand imbalances [6][7] - The cross-border ETF market has seen explosive growth, with the total scale reaching approximately 920.29 billion yuan as of November 17, compared to 424.22 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [6][7] - The number of products exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale has doubled, indicating a strong demand for cross-border investment options [7] Institutional Innovations - Recent regulatory changes have expanded the cross-border investment channels, with six new ETF products included in the "Southbound ETF Connect" list, marking a significant development in the market [8][9] AI Market Sentiment - The discussion around whether the AI sector is experiencing a bubble or genuine growth has intensified, with market volatility increasing due to geopolitical tensions and economic factors [10][11] - Despite short-term fluctuations, many institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook on the US stock market, suggesting that the underlying trends in technology and AI remain strong [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in cross-border ETFs has raised concerns about potential price bubbles, particularly in the context of AI investments, as evidenced by frequent premium warnings and market volatility [1][7]. Group 1: Cross-Border ETF Premiums - A total of 33 cross-border ETF products have issued over 500 premium risk warnings since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with 11 products issuing more than 20 warnings each [2][3]. - The Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology Weighted ETF has maintained an IOPV premium rate above 10% for 25 consecutive trading days, with a premium of 14.82% reported recently [2][3]. - The phenomenon of high premiums is not isolated, as 20 cross-border ETFs issued premium warnings on November 18, indicating a trend of "high-frequency warnings" across the market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth - The total scale of cross-border ETFs reached 920.29 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 117% increase from the previous year, significantly outpacing the 28% growth of A-share ETFs during the same period [5][6]. - The number of products with over 10 billion yuan in assets has doubled from 11 to 22, indicating a strong demand for cross-border investment products [5][6]. - The market has seen a diversification of investment targets, with new ETFs tracking indices from various global markets, including Brazil and Europe, being launched [6]. Group 3: AI Investment Debate - The discussion around whether AI represents a bubble or a genuine growth opportunity has intensified, with some analysts suggesting that the current tech rally is concentrated in high-quality large-cap stocks [7][8]. - Concerns about market volatility have been exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, yet many institutions remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of the tech sector [9]. - Analysts emphasize the need for AI to demonstrate broader and deeper practical value to avoid a potential bubble, with a critical verification period expected in the next 2 to 3 years [8][9].

Core Concept - The core investment philosophy emphasized is "buying stocks means buying companies," with less than 1% of investors truly understanding and practicing this principle [2][4]. Retail Investor Challenges - It is noted that 80% of retail investors lose money regardless of market conditions, primarily due to a lack of understanding of the companies they invest in [6]. - The phenomenon of "copying homework" is criticized, as it leads to delayed and often ineffective investment strategies [6]. Recommended Solution - The S&P 500 index is presented as a reliable investment option for ordinary investors, suggesting that investing in it can lead to consistent profits [8]. - This recommendation is based on the belief that it allows investors to participate in and benefit from the growth of the U.S. economy [8]. Index Selection - The S&P 500 is distinguished from the Nasdaq 100, with the former representing a broader range of industries and having a historical annualized return of approximately 10.2% over the past decade, while the latter focuses on tech and growth companies with a higher annualized return of about 14.5% but greater volatility [10]. - The S&P 500 is deemed more suitable for foundational investment due to its diversified risk profile [10]. Practical Investment Advice - Chinese investors can access the S&P 500 through QDII funds, with specific ETFs available, such as the Bosera S&P 500 ETF and the Southern S&P 500 ETF, the latter having a scale of 4 billion [12]. - It is acknowledged that high returns come with significant volatility, and investors should be prepared for market fluctuations [12]. Investment Philosophy - The investment wisdom of focusing on what not to do is highlighted, emphasizing the importance of operating within one's circle of competence [14][16]. - Acknowledging one's limitations in understanding specific companies and opting for a broader investment in the S&P 500 is considered a wise approach [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in investment management, highlighting the expertise of Chen Wenyang, a seasoned fund manager at Dongfanghong Asset Management, in managing multi-asset FOF (Fund of Funds) products to achieve stable returns and mitigate risks [2][4][16]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Wenyang employs a comprehensive approach to asset allocation, focusing on identifying high-odds and reasonable-win-rate investment opportunities across various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold [10][14]. - The FOF management process at Dongfanghong involves a systematic strategy design, asset selection, and fund manager evaluation, leveraging team collaboration to enhance research capabilities [4][5]. - The newly launched Dongfanghong Xinheng Stable 3-Month Holding Mixed FOF aims to provide absolute return strategies through diversified asset allocation [2][16]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Dongfanghong Yihe Stable Pension Two-Year FOF, managed by Chen Wenyang, has demonstrated strong performance, ranking 5th out of 25 and 8th out of 61 in its category over the past five and three years, respectively [5][17]. - The fund's historical performance indicates a consistent ability to manage risks and achieve returns, with a net value growth rate of 6.57% in 2024, outperforming its benchmark [17]. Group 3: Asset Selection Criteria - Chen Wenyang emphasizes the significance of selecting assets with upward trends, noting that the choice of underlying assets is more critical than merely selecting funds [10][11]. - The FOF team utilizes both quantitative and qualitative research methods to evaluate fund managers, focusing on their investment logic and consistency in execution [15][16]. - The strategy includes a careful selection of fixed-income funds based on risk-return characteristics, prioritizing stability over high returns [15].

Core Insights - The trading volume of Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) reached 868 million yuan today, marking an increase of 360 million yuan compared to the previous trading day, with a month-on-month growth rate of 70.78% [1] Summary by Category - **Trading Performance** - Today's trading volume for Bosera S&P 500 ETF was 868 million yuan [1] - This represents an increase of 360 million yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The month-on-month growth rate in trading volume is 70.78% [1]

Macroeconomic Data - The US September CPI data did not exceed expectations, with core inflation slightly declining while super core inflation remained resilient. The CPI year-on-year increased by 3%, higher than the previous value of 2.9% but lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI year-on-year also increased by 3%, lower than both the previous and expected values of 3.1%. Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4% and the expected 0.4%. The core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% and the expected 0.3% [1]. PMI Data - Global PMI data showed divergence, with the US PMI rebounding above expectations, while the Eurozone manufacturing returned to the growth line, and manufacturing conditions in Germany and Japan remained poor. The US October Markit Composite PMI recorded 54.8, exceeding the expected 53.5 and previous 53.9. The US October Markit Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, slightly above the expected and previous values of 52. The US October Markit Services PMI recorded 55.2, higher than the expected 53.5 and previous 54.2. The Eurozone October Composite PMI preliminary value was 52.2, above the expected 51.1 and previous 51.2. The Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI recorded 50, exceeding both expected and previous values of 49.8. The Eurozone October Services PMI recorded 52.6, higher than the expected 51.2 and previous 51.3. Germany's October Composite PMI recorded 53.8, better than the expected 51.5 and previous 52. The October Manufacturing PMI for Germany was 49.6, slightly above the expected and previous values of 49.5. The October Services PMI for Germany was 54.5, exceeding the expected 51 and previous 51.5. Japan's October Composite PMI recorded 50.9, lower than the previous 51.3. Japan's October Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.3, lower than the previous 48.5. Japan's October Services PMI recorded 52.4, lower than the previous 53.3 [2]. Housing Market - US September existing home sales showed a marginal recovery, meeting expectations. The total number of existing home sales annualized increased by 1.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of -0.2%. The total number of existing home sales annualized recorded 4.06 million units, consistent with expectations and higher than the previous value of 4 million units [3]. Major Index Performance - In the week from October 20 to 24, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.91%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 2.18%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 1.92%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 9 sectors rose, with Information Technology leading at 2.75%, while Consumer Staples lagged at -0.59% [4]. Market Outlook - US stocks continued to reach new highs, supported by the easing of tariffs and weaker-than-expected CPI data. The CPI's delayed release indicated a slowdown in inflation, alleviating market anxiety and increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October. This rate cut is expected to aid traditional private demand, such as real estate and manufacturing investments, alongside fiscal stimulus and ongoing technology investment trends, suggesting a gradual recovery in the US credit cycle. As of last week, 29% of S&P 500 constituents had reported Q3 earnings, with 84% exceeding expectations. In addition to earnings growth, close attention is being paid to corporate cash expenditure outlooks [6].