来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 降息预期方面，点阵图19个票委中有9人预计年内再降息1次甚至更少，9人预计再降息2次，米兰预期再 降息5次，这个异常的预期拉低了平均数，除去异常值预计还有1-2次降息，与当前的期货市场的降息预 期基本匹配。 开启降息后的4季度美国增长可能仍然得到支撑，AI产业投资持续强劲，财政支出在10月新财年后可以 重新启动，等待降息催化的传统需求如制造业PMI和房地产也可能受货币宽松影响很快传导到需求，美 国经济可能仍具韧性。 美国8月零售销售环比意外回升。美国8月零售销售环比上升0.6%，与前值持平，高于预期值0.2%；零 售销售（除汽车）环比上升0.7%，高于预期值0.4%和前值0.4%；零售销售（除汽车与汽油）环比上升 0.7%，高于前值0.4%和前值0.3%。 美国8月新屋开工大幅逊于预期。美国8月新屋开工环比下降8.5%，不及预期值-4.4%和前值3.4%；8月 新屋开工130.7万户，低于预期值136.5万户和前值142.9万户。 美国8月营建许可不及预期，环比跌幅扩大。美国8月营建许可环比下降3.7%，低于预期值0.6%和前 值-2.2%。8月营 ...

宏观经济方面，美国消费者通胀继续上涨，核心通胀增速符合预期。美国8月CPI同比上涨2.9%，高于 前值2.7%，符合预期；核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，持平前值、符合预期；CPI环比上涨0.4%，高于前值 0.2%和预期0.3%；核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，持平前值、符合预期。 美国PPI增速回落。美国8月PPI同比上涨2.6%，不及预期值3.3%和前值3.1%；PPI环比增速录得-0.1%， 低于预期值0.3%和前值0.7%；核心PPI同比2.8%，低于预期值3.5%和前值3.4%；核心PPI环比增速录 得-0.1%，不及预期值0.3%和前值0.7%。 美国消费者信心继续萎靡，长期通胀预期升温。美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数录得55.4，低于预 期值58和前值58.2。美国9月密歇根大学调查居民对未来1年的通胀预期录得4.8%，持平预期和前值；5 年通胀预期录得3.9%，高于预期值3.4%和前值3.5%。 主要指数相关情况 一周指数表现 上周（9月8日-12日），标普油气指数整周上涨0.33%，纳斯达克100指数整周上涨1.86%，标普500指数 整周上涨1.59%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有10个上涨，其中 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 79,000 [1] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors continue to show divergent trends, with manufacturing contracting and services expanding [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, below the expected 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52, exceeding both expectations and the previous value [1] - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant decline, with only 54,000 jobs added, falling short of the expected 68,000 and the previous 104,000 [1] Index Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 2.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 1.01% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.33% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, five sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 5.07%, while energy was the worst performer, declining by 3.52% [2][3] Investment Direction - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a surge in gold prices and volatility in U.S. equities [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly risen, with projections indicating a potential cut starting in September [4] - The upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be closely monitored as inflationary pressures remain concentrated in the fourth quarter [4] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. equity growth [4] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. equities, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization [4] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant allocation of 57.87% in the information technology sector [5] - The index includes high-quality technology companies, providing exposure to various sectors such as consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [5]

Macroeconomic Summary - The US July PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and previous values, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3% [1] - The core PCE for July rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly higher than the previous 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - Durable goods orders in July fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8% and previous decline of 9.4%, while core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - New home sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.5% increase and previous 4.1% increase, totaling 652,000 units, which was better than the expected 630,000 units but lower than the previous 656,000 units [1] Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.37% over the week, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.35% and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.10% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains, with Energy leading at 2.46% and Utilities lagging at -2.10% [2][3] Investment Direction - The Q2 GDP revision in the US showed stronger-than-expected growth driven by business investment, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could catalyze a recovery trade [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with a probability of 86.6% for cuts starting in September [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a tool for domestic investors to capture growth in the US stock market, tracking the S&P 500 Index which covers over 500 representative companies [4]

Macroeconomic Overview - In July, US inflation did not exceed expectations, with the CPI year-on-year at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%. The core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, up from 2.9% and above the expected 3% [1] - The PPI data for July showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year rise of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3%. The core PPI also increased to 3.7%, exceeding both the expected 3% and the previous 2.6% [1] - Retail sales in July maintained resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, below the expected 0.6% but revised up from a previous 0.6% [1] Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August recorded an initial value of 58.6, lower than the expected 62 and the previous value of 61.7. The one-year inflation expectation index rose to 4.9%, above the expected 4.4% and the previous 4.5% [2] Market Performance - For the week of August 11-15, major indices showed positive performance, with the S&P Oil & Gas Index up 0.92%, the Nasdaq 100 Index up 0.43%, and the S&P 500 Index up 0.93%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 7 sectors increased, with healthcare leading at 4.62% [3] Investment Direction - US stocks experienced an upward trend, supported by slightly lower July CPI and core CPI, along with PPI exceeding expectations. The earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies grew by 11% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 4%, indicating relative economic stability in Q2 [5] - The market continues to anticipate interest rate cuts, with expectations remaining stable compared to the previous week. The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, which may enhance market risk appetite [5]

Macroeconomic Overview - The US non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added, below the expected 104,000, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicating a cooling labor market since April [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - Hourly wage growth increased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.9%, and month-on-month growth also rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.3% [1] - The US GDP growth for Q2 exceeded expectations, with a significant increase to 3% from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, driven by net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [1] - The core PCE price index for June rose by 2.58% year-on-year, while the core PCE increased by 2.79%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.85% [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July fell to 48, below the expected 49.5, with the employment index dropping further to 43.4 [1] Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 3.40%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.19%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.36% during the week of July 28 to August 1 [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, only two sectors saw gains, with Utilities leading at 1.52% and Materials lagging with a decline of 5.40% [2][3] Investment Direction - The US stock market experienced a pullback, with the Federal Reserve's July FOMC indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding the inflation effects of tariffs, while the July employment data fell short of expectations, raising recession concerns and increasing the likelihood of rate cuts in September [4] - Approximately 78% of S&P 500 companies that reported Q2 earnings exceeded market expectations, compared to 73% in Q1, suggesting relative economic stability in Q2 [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with an 83.6% probability of a rate cut starting in September [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture growth in the US stock market [4]

Macroeconomic Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is -0.3%, below the expected -0.2% and significantly lower than the previous quarter's 2.5% [1] - Consumer spending, inventory changes, and fixed investment contributed positively to GDP growth, while government spending and net exports were negative factors [1] - Consumer prices increased while consumption volume decreased, with durable goods consumption affected by the seasonal decline in automotive sales, although service consumption remained resilient [1] - Residential investment growth rate declined year-on-year, while investment in computer equipment surged, boosting overall private fixed investment [1] - Wholesale inventory levels increased significantly, including upstream resources like oil and consumer goods such as furniture and clothing [1] - Trade deficit widened significantly due to increased imports of precious metals and chemicals, while mechanical and electronic imports also rose [1] Employment Data - The US added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding the expected 138,000 [1] - The education and healthcare sectors showed the largest job growth, while transportation and warehousing sectors experienced increased demand due to trade policy uncertainties [1] - The labor participation rate increased, which may exert upward pressure on the unemployment rate, but the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] Consumer Income and Spending - In March, US personal disposable income growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, while personal consumption expenditure growth rate also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.6% [2] - The PCE price index year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, and the core PCE growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7% [2] Market Performance - For the week of April 28 to May 2, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 1.39%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 3.45%, and the S&P 500 Index grew by 2.92% [3] - Out of the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 10 sectors saw gains, with the industrial sector leading at 4.32%, while the energy sector declined by 0.65% [3] Investment Direction - US stocks continued to rebound, with expectations around Trump's tariff policies impacting economic growth [5] - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data indicates resilience in the US economy, alongside signs of easing in US-China trade tensions [5] - As of now, 71% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 69% exceeding expectations, slightly below the previous quarters' average of 75% [5] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased, with the probability of a May rate cut falling to 2% and potential cuts starting in July [5]

Macroeconomic Overview - The preliminary Markit PMI for April in the US indicates a slowdown in economic expansion, with a composite PMI of 51.2%, below the expected 52.0% and previous 53.5% [1] - The preliminary services PMI for April is 51.4%, lower than the expected 52.6% and previous 54.4% [1] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for April is 50.7%, exceeding the expected 49.0% and previous 50.2% [1] - Durable goods orders in March saw a significant month-on-month increase of 9.2%, far surpassing the expected 2% and previous 0.9% [1] - Excluding defense capital goods orders, durable goods orders increased only by 0.1% [1] - New home sales in March rose by 7.4%, significantly above the expected 1.3% and previous 3.1%, totaling 724,000 units [1] - Existing home sales, however, fell by 5.9% year-on-year, below the expected -2.6% and previous 4.4%, with a total of 4.02 million units [1] Major Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index increased by 1.26% over the week [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 Index surged by 6.43% during the same period [2][3] - The S&P 500 Index rose by 4.59%, with 10 out of 11 sectors showing gains, led by Information Technology at 7.93% [2][3] Market Sentiment and Trends - The US stock market experienced a rebound last week, with a decline in gold prices [2] - President Trump indicated he would not dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, and there are signs of easing in US-China trade tensions [2] - The VIX fear index temporarily fell to 25, reflecting reduced market anxiety [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with a 10% probability of a cut in May and an expected 3.50 cuts in 2025 [2]