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中金 | 固态电池系列报告一:锂电皇冠上的明珠,产业化浪潮将至
中金点睛· 2025-09-04 23:42
Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are expected to become the next generation of lithium battery technology due to their high safety and energy density, with significant investment opportunities arising from technological breakthroughs and industrial transformation [2][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Projections - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating due to policy support, market demand, and technological breakthroughs, with a projected global shipment of 808 GWh by 2030 [4][10]. - By 2030, the demand for semi-solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 650 GWh, with specific demands from power, energy storage, EVTOL, and consumer electronics at 466 GWh, 90 GWh, 60 GWh, and 36 GWh respectively [10]. - Full solid-state batteries are anticipated to achieve small-scale production by 2027 and commercial production by 2030, with a demand forecast of over 150 GWh [10]. Group 2: Material Innovations - The solid-state battery technology is converging towards the sulfide electrolyte route, which currently has high costs but significant cost reduction potential with scale [5][12]. - The long-term focus for anode materials is shifting towards lithium metal due to its high capacity and low electrode potential, with ongoing advancements in production methods [25][27]. - The cathode materials are expected to transition from high-nickel ternary materials to lithium-rich manganese-based materials, which offer high capacity and lower costs [23]. Group 3: Equipment and Manufacturing Processes - The value of equipment for solid-state batteries is significantly increasing due to the introduction of new processes and equipment in both the front and mid-stages of production [6][29]. - The front-end production requires dry electrode processes that are more compatible with sulfide electrolytes, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [30][32]. - The mid-stage production will replace winding with stacking processes, necessitating new equipment such as glue frame printing and isostatic pressing to ensure tight contact between solid electrolyte and electrodes [31][39]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Various companies are advancing their production capabilities for solid-state battery components, including sulfide and halide electrolytes, with significant investments in R&D and production lines [22][20]. - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are focusing on lithium metal anodes, while others are developing advanced manufacturing techniques for solid-state batteries [27][26]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more efficient and cost-effective production methods, with several firms already implementing dry processing technologies [36][41].
重视固态电池材料等成长板块
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-10 13:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the basic chemical sector, including Dongyangguang, Jingtai Holdings, Zhongyan Dadi, and Weixing Chemical [4]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a configuration opportunity, with the index declining from a peak of 9565.18 points in September 2021 to a low of 3876.11 points in February 2024, representing a cumulative drop of 59.5% [1]. - The construction project growth rate in the chemical industry has been continuously declining, with a forecasted negative growth rate of -7.3% by Q1 2025 [1]. - The basic chemical index saw a cumulative increase of 5.9% from July 11 to August 8, 2024, while the petroleum and petrochemical index increased by 2.5% during the same period [1]. - Institutional holdings in the basic chemical sector peaked in Q3 2021 at 6.69%, but have since declined to 3.72% by Q2 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Materials - Solid-state batteries are expected to significantly enhance energy density, with potential to exceed 500 Wh/kg, compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries which struggle to surpass 300 Wh/kg [2]. - The report highlights the importance of solid-state battery materials, including polymer, oxide, and sulfide types, with a focus on sulfide materials for future full solid-state batteries [2]. - Companies to watch in this sector include Daoshi Technology and Changyang Technology, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated industrialization of solid-state batteries starting in 2026 [2]. AI4S and AI Materials Investment Opportunities - AI4S is rapidly penetrating the pharmaceutical and chemical industries, with significant growth in innovative drug licensing transactions reaching 41 deals worth $36.929 billion in Q1 2025 [3]. - AI technologies are expected to replace traditional drug development processes, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [3]. - The report identifies key players in AI4S, including Jingtai Holdings and Zhizhi New Materials, as well as suppliers of AI-specific hardware and materials [3].