煤炭行业资深专家系列电话会议 20260226 摘要 印尼 RKB 政策收紧，预计 2026 年产量目标设定为 6.5 亿吨，较 2025 年减少 1.3 亿吨以上，将显著冲击中国进口煤市场，尤其对依赖印尼煤 的沿海地区影响更为突出。中国近三年进口量维持高位，2025 年约为 4.9 亿吨，其中印尼煤占比超过 2.4 亿吨。 印尼煤供应减少将导致进口煤品种结构更加分散，并加剧沿海地区混配 煤的需求，电厂在电价下降背景下对低卡煤的刚性需求将放大沿海供给 扰动，多种因素叠加将推高进口煤价格。 1 月以来，印尼和澳洲进口煤价格持续上涨，其中印尼 4,600 卡中粉价 格上涨约 4.5 美元/吨，澳洲 5,500 卡价格上涨接近 11 美元/吨，现货市 场报价高于指数，表明市场对供应趋紧的预期强烈。 RKB 批复偏紧已对印尼煤炭出口形成实质性影响，部分煤矿 RKB 批复 量远低于申请量，导致电厂招标意愿下降，流标风险上升，将影响 3-4 月份进口煤到货量预期，国内库存偏低进一步强化价格上行。 印尼能矿部倾向于将 3,800 卡 FOB 价格维持在 55 美元/吨以上，以支 持国内煤矿复工，但当前指数层面尚未达到该水平 ...

海运动煤进口现状及节后展望 20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 印尼煤炭减产计划（RKB）设定为 6 亿吨，较去年预估产量减少约 1.75 亿吨，对中国煤炭进口产生重大影响，引发市场对供应紧张的担忧。 受印尼减产影响，中国沿海电厂招标价格大幅上涨，3,800 卡印尼煤中 标价一周内上涨 34 元至 499 元，部分电厂甚至出现无人投标现象，反 映市场对高价煤的谨慎态度。 印尼煤供应紧张促使贸易商转向俄罗斯、澳洲等地寻求替代货源，导致 澳洲煤价格暴涨，一周内指数上涨超过 4 美元，整体替代来源价格呈现 快速上涨趋势。 国内动力煤价格受进口煤带动出现上涨迹象，环渤海市场供应偏紧，价 格迅速攀升，从 2 月 6 日的 698 元/吨涨至 2 月 9 日的 711 元/吨，预计 节前或将继续上涨。 当前国内煤炭市场供需紧张，港口库存同比去年减少近 400 万吨，部分 保供产能退出市场，两会期间安监力度加大，短期内国内供应端难以显 著改善。 Q&A 其他国家如俄罗斯、澳洲等地煤炭供应情况如何？ 由于印尼煤炭供应紧张，一些贸易商将目光转向俄罗斯、澳洲等地。澳洲煤最 明显，上周指数暴涨 4 美元，从 75 美元多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, news of Indonesian coal exports disturbed the market, but the impact was short - lived, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to rise and then fall. With domestic coal mines starting to shut down for the holiday, daily production has significantly declined. Coal mine clean coal inventories are being depleted, and downstream enterprises are restocking as needed [4]. - Indonesia has denied the market's rumor of production cuts. In the short term, about 6.16 million tons of monthly imported Indonesian coal are affected, accounting for 15.1% of China's monthly imports, but the actual impact is limited. In the long term, if Indonesia cuts production, China can make up for the gap by increasing domestic production and imports from Russia and Mongolia, but the cost - effectiveness of Indonesian coal is hard to replace. Future attention should be paid to the RKAB approval results [5]. - With only one week left until the Lunar New Year, downstream pre - holiday restocking is almost over. As the impact of the news weakens, the futures market has been reducing positions and declining since Thursday. With relatively limited supply - demand contradictions, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next week, and a cautious bearish attitude is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Coking Coal Market 3.1.1. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Meng 5 | Tangshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1430 | 1203 | | Meng 5 | Inner Mongolia | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1230 | 1225 | | Anze Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1570 | 1310 | | Gujiao Main Coking Coal | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1491 | 1231 | | Pingmei No.1 | Pingdingshan | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1630 | 1145 | | Shan Jiao Rizhao No.1 | Rizhao | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1600 | 1150 | | Xiang Jiao No.1 | Linfen | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1400 | 1120 | | Kaijia No.1 | Jiexiu | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1500 | 1200 | [10] 3.1.2. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 72 | 2 | - 5.85% | - 99 | - 162 | | May | 170 | - 11 | 13.82% | 145 | - 23 | | September | 94 | - 9 | 7.64% | 67 | - 60 | [12] 3.1.3. Coking Coal Supply - **Mines**: The average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9253 million tons, a decrease of 52,900 tons compared to the previous week; the average daily output of clean coal was 754,500 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to the previous week [19]. - **Coal Washeries**: The average daily output of sample coal washeries was 263,100 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 35.54%, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the previous week [22]. 3.1.4. Coking Coal Imports - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, imports from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [23][26]. | Country | As of 2025 - 12 - 31 | Cumulative Value | Monthly MoM | Monthly YoY | Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mongolia | 672 | 6007 | 7.6% | 59.1% | 5.8% | | Russia | 360 | 3276 | 31.3% | 55.0% | 8.4% | | Canada | 110 | 1080 | 109.9% | 8.4% | 19.8% | | Australia | 178 | 886 | 109.3% | 10.5% | - 14.0% | | Other Countries | 57 | 613 | 54.3% | - 62.8% | - 60.6% | | Total | 1377 | 11863 | 28.3% | 28.6% | - 2.7% | [25] 3.1.5. Coking Coal Auction Data | Coking Coal Auction Data | 2026 - 01 - 30 | 2026 - 01 - 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Listing Volume (10,000 tons) | 154.43 | 137.735 | 16.70 | | Transaction Rate (%) | 70.22 | 88.02 | - 17.8 | | Unsold Rate (%) | 29.78 | 11.98 | 17.8 | [29] 3.2. Coke Market 3.2.1. Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost | Variety | Location | Date | Spot Price | Warehouse Receipt Cost | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 05 | 1480 | 1736 | | Rizhao Port Dry - Quenched Coke | Shandong | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1680 | 1725 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Pengfei Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1530 | 1700 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Hengfeng Group) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1740 | | Lvliang Dry - Quenched (Shanxi Jinhui) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1570 | 1690 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Zhongjin Taihang) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1310 | 1697 | | Jinzhong Wet - Quenched (Jiexiu Changsheng) | Shanxi | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1330 | 1719 | | Handan Dry - Quenched (Xinsheng Coal Chemical) | Hebei | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 1550 | 1650 | [39] 3.2.2. Coking Profit | Region | 2026 - 01 - 29 | 2026 - 01 - 22 | Weekly Change | Same - Period Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | - 55 | - 66 | 11 | - 28 | | Shanxi | - 41 | - 51 | 10 | - 41 | | Hebei | 0 | - 11 | 11 | - 11 | | Inner Mongolia | - 92 | - 103 | 11 | 4 | | Shandong | 2 | - 8 | 10 | - 1 | [41] 3.2.3. Basis | Contract | Basis | Weekly Change | Basis Rate | One - Month Average | Seasonal Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January | - 262 | - 1 | - 17.68% | - 258 | - 174 | | May | - 69 | 39 | - 4.63% | - 56 | - 129 | | September | - 135 | 41 | - 9.09% | - 122 | - 164 | [44] 3.2.4. Coke Inventory Distribution | Coke Inventory Distribution | 2026 - 02 - 06 | 2026 - 01 - 30 | Weekly MoM | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel Mills | 6923,800 tons | 6781,900 tons | 141,900 tons | 0.21% | | Steel Mill Inventory Usable Days | 12.76 days | 12.54 days | 0.22 days | - 3.8% | | Independent Coking Enterprises | 827,400 tons | 843,900 tons | - 16,500 tons | - 47.18% | | Ports | 2.011 million tons | 1.98065 million tons | 30,350 tons | 13.49% | | Tianjin Port | 820,000 tons | 770,000 tons | 50,000 tons | 39.0% | | Qingdao Port | 740,000 tons | 780,000 tons | - 40,000 tons | 4.23% | | Rizhao | 450,000 tons | 430,000 tons | 20,000 tons | - 4.26% | | Total | 9.7622 million tons | 9.60645 million tons | 155,750 tons | - 4.74% | [56]

Market Overview - The thermal coal market is characterized by a stalemate between supply-side price support and weak demand response, with supply gradually recovering and port inventories decreasing, but actual transactions remain light due to high inventory levels at power plants and weak procurement from non-electric sectors [1][2][4] Supply Side - Main production areas are gradually resuming operations, with prices showing differentiation; some high-quality coal mines have raised prices by 5-10 yuan/ton due to slight demand recovery, while overall market activity remains low [2] - Port inventories have decreased to 28.37 million tons, down 120,000 tons day-on-day, with trade merchants reluctant to sell at low prices due to ongoing cost disadvantages, particularly for low-sulfur coal types [3] Demand Side - Daily coal consumption at power plants has slightly increased to 4.515 million tons, up 159,000 tons, but total inventory remains high at 110 million tons, limiting the need for large-scale procurement [4] - Non-electric sector demand is weak, with limited increases in coal usage from industries like cement and chemicals, leading to a cautious procurement stance [4] - Weather conditions are expected to bring some marginal increases in consumption, but overall temperatures are close to seasonal averages, limiting significant spikes in coal usage [4] Import Coal - Indonesian coal prices have risen to FOB $49-50 per ton due to export restrictions, while Australian coal prices are at FOB $77-78 per ton, with high shipping costs narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [5][6] - The terminal's acceptance of high-priced imported coal is low, with procurement focused on future contracts [7] Market Dynamics and Outlook - The current core contradiction in the market is between expectations of supply contraction and the reality of high inventories, with structural shortages in low-sulfur coal types but difficulties in trading ordinary coal types [8] - The market is in a phase of "weak reality and strong expectations," with no strong drivers to break the current balance; short-term coal prices are expected to remain volatile with limited upward movement until inventories decrease significantly [9]