中煤能源A股（601898.SH）近3个交易日股价波动显著：2月24日上涨3.95%至14.99元，2月25日下跌 1.33%至14.79元，2月26日进一步下跌1.42%至14.58元（截至收盘）。资金流向方面，2月25日主力资金 净流出639.11万元，但融资资金净买入1620.85万元，显示分歧。公司股东户数截至2026年1月底为 78,147户（A股），较前期变化未披露。板块方面，煤炭开采板块近一日下跌0.61%，弱于大盘。 机构观点 经济观察网 近期煤炭市场呈现供需双弱但价格底部支撑坚实的特征。春节假期期间，主产地煤矿停产 放假导致供应收缩，而工业用电需求进入低点，电厂采购以长协合同为主。截至2026年2月25日，环渤 海动力煤现货参考价717元/吨，周涨幅0.70%；秦皇岛港动力煤平仓价718元/吨，周涨幅3.31%。海外方 面，印尼减产推动国际煤价上涨，对国内煤价形成支撑。华源证券报告指出，春节前煤炭去库超预期， 港口库存处于近三年低位，节后需关注供需恢复节奏。 股票近期走势 山西证券研报认为，海外煤价上涨及国内供给约束可能对煤炭企业业绩形成支撑，建议关注头部动力煤 标的如中煤能源。华源证券同样 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 へ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03668 | 兖煤澳大利亚 | 31.200 | -7.58% | | 01277 | 力量发展 | 1.910 | -4.50% | | 01171 | 究矿能源 | 13.060 | -3.97% | | 01898 | 中煤能源 | 12.020 | -3.06% | | 06885 | 金马能源 | 1.030 | -2.83% | | 01088 | 中国神华 | 43.040 | -2.49% | | 00975 | MONGOL MIN | 12.720 | -2.15% | | 00639 | 首钢资源 | 3.250 | -1.81% | | 00276 | 蒙古能源 | 0.710 | -1.39% | 消息上，春节前后炼焦煤线上竞拍市场流拍率一度飙升至44.08%，反映出强烈的观望与看空心态。节 后流拍率仍维持在30%-40%的高位，呈现"有价无市"的格局。同时，独立焦企炼焦煤总库存处于近两年 高位，炼焦煤综合库存创近1年新高，市场供应整体趋于宽松。 兖煤澳大利亚公布2025年业 ...

格隆汇2月16日丨首钢资源(00639.HK)公告，根据集团截至2025年12月31日止年度(「本年度」)之未经 审核综合管理帐目之初步评估及其他现时董事会所得悉之资料，集团预计于本年度录得公司拥有人应占 综合溢利介乎于约6亿港元至7亿港元之范围内，对比截至2024年12月31日止年度约14.94亿港元，按年 下降约60%至53%。 该跌幅主要归因于本年度集团主要精焦煤产品的平均实现销售价按年下降约36%。销售价下降主要因 2025年国内煤炭市场供需呈现宽松态势，导致煤炭价格弱势运行，令集团主要精焦煤产品市场价格按年 大幅下滑约30%，因而拖累集团实现销售价。另外，诚如公司2025年中期报告所述，集团自2024年7月 起全面进入下组煤层开采，煤质有所变化，较高价低硫精焦煤已停产，进一步影响本年度集团主要精焦 煤产品的整体实现销售价。 ...

海运动煤进口现状及节后展望 20260212 2026-02-12 摘要 印尼煤炭减产计划（RKB）设定为 6 亿吨，较去年预估产量减少约 1.75 亿吨，对中国煤炭进口产生重大影响，引发市场对供应紧张的担忧。 受印尼减产影响，中国沿海电厂招标价格大幅上涨，3,800 卡印尼煤中 标价一周内上涨 34 元至 499 元，部分电厂甚至出现无人投标现象，反 映市场对高价煤的谨慎态度。 印尼煤供应紧张促使贸易商转向俄罗斯、澳洲等地寻求替代货源，导致 澳洲煤价格暴涨，一周内指数上涨超过 4 美元，整体替代来源价格呈现 快速上涨趋势。 国内动力煤价格受进口煤带动出现上涨迹象，环渤海市场供应偏紧，价 格迅速攀升，从 2 月 6 日的 698 元/吨涨至 2 月 9 日的 711 元/吨，预计 节前或将继续上涨。 当前国内煤炭市场供需紧张，港口库存同比去年减少近 400 万吨，部分 保供产能退出市场，两会期间安监力度加大，短期内国内供应端难以显 著改善。 Q&A 其他国家如俄罗斯、澳洲等地煤炭供应情况如何？ 由于印尼煤炭供应紧张，一些贸易商将目光转向俄罗斯、澳洲等地。澳洲煤最 明显，上周指数暴涨 4 美元，从 75 美元多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore: As steel mills' inventory replenishment nears completion, ore prices will fluctuate downward [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Their apparent demands decline month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][18]. - Steam coal: News of production cuts in Indonesia stimulates the import market, and domestic coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][22]. - Logs: Prices will consolidate with fluctuations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The positions increased by 9,456 lots to 525,113 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as PB and super - special decreased, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,101 yuan/ton and 3,263 yuan/ton respectively, down 9 yuan/ton and 13 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0.29% and 0.40%. Spot prices in most regions remained stable. There were changes in basis and spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to February 5th steel union weekly data, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 59.24 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 2.2%, pig iron decreased by 3.0%, and steel increased by 3.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises decreased by 8.8% compared with the previous ten - day period [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of silicon - iron 72 and 75 in some regions increased. The closing prices and positions of relevant futures contracts had changes. There were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity tariffs will be increased to at least 50%. UMK's March 2026 manganese ore price for China increased. River Steel's February 75B ferrosilicon procurement price remained the same as in January, but the quantity decreased. In January, the electricity price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia showed a downward trend, while in Qinghai, it increased [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 were 1,172 yuan/ton and 1,738 yuan/ton respectively, down 37 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton, with decreases of 3.1% and 1.8%. Spot prices of some coking coals and cokes changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5th, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed a decline in some coal prices. The coke market was running weakly, with steel mills' procurement enthusiasm being average [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports had slight changes, and the long - term agreement prices decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5th, the port steam coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. Near the Spring Festival, the spot market showed weak supply and demand, and port inventories continued to decline. News of import coal reduction led to an increase in import coal prices, providing support for the domestic market. There were also reports of potential production cuts in Indonesian coal mines [24]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts had different degrees of change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [28].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：2月4日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a weak downward trend in futures prices, with a notable decline in both spot and futures contracts, while supply and demand dynamics are showing mixed signals as inventory levels increase across various sectors [5]. Supply - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of 88 coal mines is reported at 85.44%, an increase of 3.62% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 862.95 million tons per week, up by 36.57 million tons [2]. - The inventory of raw coal stands at 200.72 million tons, down by 18.54 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is at 439.21 million tons per week, an increase of 19.19 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coal mines is at 88.5%, with a week-on-week increase of 3.1%, and daily raw coal production at 197.8 million tons, up by 7.9 million tons [2]. Demand - As of January 15, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 63.4 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 million tons week-on-week, while steel mills report an average daily coke production of 46.7 million tons, down by 0.2 million tons [3]. - The average daily pig iron production is at 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.84%, down by 0.47% [3]. - The profitability of steel mills is reported at 39.83%, an increase of 2.17% week-on-week, indicating some resilience in the sector despite overall production declines [3]. Inventory - As of January 15, total coal inventory across various sectors has increased by 128.4 million tons to 4247.1 million tons, with specific increases in inventories at coal mines, washing plants, coking plants, and ports [4]. - The inventory at 523 coal mines has risen by 17.7 million tons to 550.8 million tons, while washing plants have seen an increase of 20.7 million tons to 541.7 million tons [4]. - The inventory at coastal ports has increased by 17.8 million tons to 728.9 million tons, reflecting a broader trend of rising stock levels across the coal supply chain [4].

Core Viewpoint - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with ample supply exerting downward pressure on prices, while flexible export policies provide bottom support [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the urea industry will see a steady expansion of production capacity, with an expected addition of 4.4 million tons, primarily in the second and third quarters [2]. - By the end of 2025, domestic urea production capacity is projected to reach 79.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.83% [2]. - In 2026, approximately 5.27 million tons of urea capacity is still pending production, leading to a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.60% [2]. - The overall supply is expected to remain loose, impacting market prices significantly [6]. Production Costs - The production cost center is anticipated to rise, influenced by a "first suppressed, then lifted" trend in the coal market [3]. - In 2025, the complete production cost of urea from different processes varies, with fixed-bed urea costing 1917 CNY/ton, water-coal slurry at 1526 CNY/ton, and natural gas at 1978 CNY/ton [4]. Downstream Demand - Urea's apparent consumption in China for January to November 2025 was 59.86 million tons, remaining stable year-on-year [8]. - Agricultural demand is the primary driver, with direct fertilization and compound fertilizer accounting for 44.6% and 20.8% of total demand, respectively [8]. - Policies supporting high-standard farmland construction and soil fertility restoration are expected to influence urea demand positively, although the growth rate may slow over time [9]. Seasonal Demand Patterns - Urea demand exhibits seasonal characteristics, with significant usage during the growing seasons, particularly in March, June, and September [10]. - The compound fertilizer production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend, supported by policies aimed at ensuring food production [11]. Export Dynamics - The domestic urea export policy was relaxed in May 2025, with a total of approximately 4.6 million tons of export quotas allocated by November 2025 [13]. - The potential for further expansion of export quotas in 2026 could alleviate domestic supply pressures [14]. Price Outlook - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to fluctuate seasonally, with strong agricultural demand in the first half potentially supporting prices, while increased supply and lower demand in the second half may lead to price declines [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Qinhuangdao coal price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has decreased to 685 yuan per ton, down by 8 yuan from the previous period, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations and supply chain dynamics [1] Supply Side - Coal mines that were temporarily shut down before the holiday have resumed normal production and sales, but high port inventories, price inversions, and uncertain logistics policies have slowed the flow of coal from production areas to ports [1] - The average daily transport volume on the Daqin line was only 910,000 tons during this period, indicating a significant slowdown in coal supply [1] - Despite the tight supply of some low-calorie quality coal, the overall supply remains insufficient, leading to continued inventory depletion at ports [1] Demand Side - The New Year holiday coincided with higher-than-usual temperatures across many regions, causing daily coal consumption in eight coastal provinces to drop below 2 million tons [1] - Post-holiday, daily consumption quickly increased due to colder weather and the resumption of business operations, but the overall demand has not shown significant improvement [1] - The stability of long-term contracts and the influx of imported coal have prevented a noticeable supply-demand gap, maintaining a steady pace of procurement from downstream buyers [1] Market Outlook - The current coastal market for spot prices is showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to tightening supply, which has led to a rebound in market sentiment [1] - However, the lack of substantial improvement in actual demand means that the factors supporting continued price increases remain weak [1] - Until effective inventory reduction occurs across the entire supply chain, the transaction dynamics between upstream and downstream will likely remain in a stalemate [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing - Qualification Number: F03097282; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018999 [2] - Contact: TEL 82292661 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints Coking Coal - This week, the second - round price reduction of coke started, and coking coal prices continued to be weak due to the weakening coking profit. Near the end of the year, some coal mines actively reduced production, and some mines had temporary production cuts. Although the local supply decreased this week, the recent increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the decline in demand led to an overall loose supply and downward pressure on prices. The January contract is currently at a large discount to the spot, and considering the high probability of non - standard delivery items, buyers' participation enthusiasm is not high, and short positions are relatively concentrated. It is not advisable to participate in long positions, and short positions can consider taking profits at low prices [6]. Coke - This week, the coke spot market was weak. The second - round price reduction was initiated in areas such as Hebei and Tianjin, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant. Recently, the demand in the coke market has been continuously declining. Under the pressure of blast furnace production cuts, coke enterprises may further seek profits from upstream. The current market sentiment is poor, and prices are under pressure for adjustment. The January contract is currently at a discount to the port wet - basis warehouse receipt price. Due to the continued expectation of price reduction in the market, prices may continue the pattern of volatile adjustment [43]. Summary by Directory Part One: Coking Coal Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1068 yuan/ton (- 49), and that of high - quality coking coal in Anze, Shanxi was 1273 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1255 yuan/ton (- 1). The futures price of the main coking coal contract decreased, with a week - on - week decline of 10.83%, and the JM1 - 5 spread was - 71 (+ 13) yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: In December, more coal mines reduced production, and the local supply continued to decrease. Recent snowfall in the main production areas affected the downstream delivery rhythm, and some coal types temporarily stabilized due to limited resources. The operating rate of coking coal (523 enterprises) was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 750,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3700 tons. In terms of imported seaborne coal, Australian mines continued to control supplies, while overseas terminal demand remained, and coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The forward transaction price of Australian quasi - first - line high - quality coking coal Goonyella rose to about FOB 209.9 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 3.39 US dollars, equivalent to about 1834 yuan/ton at domestic port pick - up prices, and the inversion range with domestic local prices has expanded to over 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Demand**: Terminal hot metal production continued to decline, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke remained under pressure. After two rounds of coke price cuts, there was still an expectation of further cuts, and high - price transactions at mines were still difficult. The clean coal inventory of 523 enterprises monitored by Steel Union was 2.5531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,000 tons [5]. Part Two: Coke Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1576 yuan/ton (- 21), the warehouse receipt price of port dry - quenched coke was 1815 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1850 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main coke contract decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decline of 6.94%, and the J1 - 5 spread was - 153 yuan/ton (- 4) [41]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: The coking operation was at a high level, but in winter, coking was frequently affected by environmental protection. Currently, the production of some coke enterprises in areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan was restricted, and the supply tightened. On the other hand, a few coke enterprises had resumed production after previous maintenance, and production had recovered. Overall, coke supply continued to decline this period, with a limited decline. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 73.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 percentage points. The daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5500 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 466,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]. - **Demand**: Affected by the off - season, demand continued to be weak. Blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline this period. The supply of finished products decreased, and steel mills' enthusiasm for raw material procurement was weak. Downstream steel mills continued to passively accumulate inventory. The daily average hot metal output this period was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons [42]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills monitored by Steel Union was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 87,320 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,880 tons, an increase of 14.2%. The coke inventory at ports was 181,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]