2026年尿素价格或呈宽幅震荡走势。全年供应充裕对价格形成压制，出口政策灵活调整提供底部支撑。 上半年，农业需求处于消费旺季，尿素价格或在供需格局阶段性改善情况下震荡偏强运行。下半年，需 求进入淡季，供需面压力增大，尿素价格或逐渐下行。 2026年是产能投放大年 2025年尿素行业产能稳步扩张，供应压力凸显。2025年尿素新增产能预计440万吨，投产主要集中在 二、三季度。多套装置已经落地，包括陕西煤化工80万吨／年装置、甘肃刘化70万吨／年装置、江苏晋 煤恒盛化工60万吨／年装置，等等。预计2025年尿素国内产能在7980万吨，产能增速为5.83%。 2026年亦为尿素新增装置投产大年。根据不完全统计，国内尿素仍有约527万吨产能待投产，名义产能 增速将在6.60%。供应端预计维持宽松格局。 生产成本中枢有望上移 2025年，煤炭市场呈现明显的"先抑后扬"态势。上半年，煤炭价格延续下行探底趋势；下半年，市场止 跌回升信号显现，价格重心逐步上移。走势转变的背后是煤炭市场基本面的阶段性改善：此前供需关系 持续偏宽松，成为压制煤价走低的核心因素；后续受安全检查、超产核查等政策加码影响，煤炭产量收 紧，叠加年内高温 ...

供应端，节前停产煤矿恢复正常产销，但受港口库存高位、价格倒挂、物流总包政策未定等因素影响， 产地货源向港口流速明显放缓，周期内大秦线日均运量仅为91万吨。货源持续补充不足下，港口持续去 库，部分低卡优质货源供应略显偏紧。 新华财经太原1月8日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网1月7日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于685元／ 吨，环比下行8元／吨。分析认为，本周期恰逢元旦假期，煤炭市场局部去库、需求弱稳，市场情绪呈 现转强迹象，沿海煤价走势稳中偏强，但由于1月份长协价格跌幅较大，在综合平均计算下，本周环渤 海动力煤价格指数延续跌势。 （文章来源：新华财经） 需求端，恰逢元旦假期，且全国多地气温较往年同期偏高，沿海八省日耗一度降至200万吨以下，虽然 在降温及企业复工影响下，节后日耗快速攀高，但在长协托底及进口煤补充下，终端供需暂未出现明显 缺口，下游北上采购节奏稳定。 整体来看，本轮沿海市场现货价格稳中上探，主要受供应收紧影响，持续下跌的市场情绪出现反弹，而 实际需求尚未出现明显改善，煤价持续上涨因素仍缺乏韧性，在全链条库存实现有效去库之前，上下游 成交将延续僵持博弈状态。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing - Qualification Number: F03097282; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018999 [2] - Contact: TEL 82292661 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints Coking Coal - This week, the second - round price reduction of coke started, and coking coal prices continued to be weak due to the weakening coking profit. Near the end of the year, some coal mines actively reduced production, and some mines had temporary production cuts. Although the local supply decreased this week, the recent increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the decline in demand led to an overall loose supply and downward pressure on prices. The January contract is currently at a large discount to the spot, and considering the high probability of non - standard delivery items, buyers' participation enthusiasm is not high, and short positions are relatively concentrated. It is not advisable to participate in long positions, and short positions can consider taking profits at low prices [6]. Coke - This week, the coke spot market was weak. The second - round price reduction was initiated in areas such as Hebei and Tianjin, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant. Recently, the demand in the coke market has been continuously declining. Under the pressure of blast furnace production cuts, coke enterprises may further seek profits from upstream. The current market sentiment is poor, and prices are under pressure for adjustment. The January contract is currently at a discount to the port wet - basis warehouse receipt price. Due to the continued expectation of price reduction in the market, prices may continue the pattern of volatile adjustment [43]. Summary by Directory Part One: Coking Coal Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1068 yuan/ton (- 49), and that of high - quality coking coal in Anze, Shanxi was 1273 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1255 yuan/ton (- 1). The futures price of the main coking coal contract decreased, with a week - on - week decline of 10.83%, and the JM1 - 5 spread was - 71 (+ 13) yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: In December, more coal mines reduced production, and the local supply continued to decrease. Recent snowfall in the main production areas affected the downstream delivery rhythm, and some coal types temporarily stabilized due to limited resources. The operating rate of coking coal (523 enterprises) was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 750,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3700 tons. In terms of imported seaborne coal, Australian mines continued to control supplies, while overseas terminal demand remained, and coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The forward transaction price of Australian quasi - first - line high - quality coking coal Goonyella rose to about FOB 209.9 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 3.39 US dollars, equivalent to about 1834 yuan/ton at domestic port pick - up prices, and the inversion range with domestic local prices has expanded to over 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Demand**: Terminal hot metal production continued to decline, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke remained under pressure. After two rounds of coke price cuts, there was still an expectation of further cuts, and high - price transactions at mines were still difficult. The clean coal inventory of 523 enterprises monitored by Steel Union was 2.5531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,000 tons [5]. Part Two: Coke Price - As of December 11, the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1576 yuan/ton (- 21), the warehouse receipt price of port dry - quenched coke was 1815 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1850 yuan/ton. The futures price of the main coke contract decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decline of 6.94%, and the J1 - 5 spread was - 153 yuan/ton (- 4) [41]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: The coking operation was at a high level, but in winter, coking was frequently affected by environmental protection. Currently, the production of some coke enterprises in areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan was restricted, and the supply tightened. On the other hand, a few coke enterprises had resumed production after previous maintenance, and production had recovered. Overall, coke supply continued to decline this period, with a limited decline. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 73.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 percentage points. The daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5500 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 466,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]. - **Demand**: Affected by the off - season, demand continued to be weak. Blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline this period. The supply of finished products decreased, and steel mills' enthusiasm for raw material procurement was weak. Downstream steel mills continued to passively accumulate inventory. The daily average hot metal output this period was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons [42]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills monitored by Steel Union was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 87,320 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,880 tons, an increase of 14.2%. The coke inventory at ports was 181,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [42]

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 8, the port coke spot market showed weak performance, with domestic trading atmosphere being subdued due to the influence of futures trends and expectations of coke prices from production areas [1] - The external trade demand remained average, leading to stable port prices for foreign trade coke [1] - The future trends of coke prices will depend on downstream steel mill profit levels, changes in coking coal costs, and futures market sentiment [1] Group 2: Regional Price Stability - In the Linfen market, coke prices remained stable, with major steel mills in Hebei reducing coke prices by 50-55 yuan/ton starting from August 1 [2] - The overall production pace of coking enterprises in Linfen was normal, with low inventory levels and general profitability [2] - Downstream steel demand was cautious, primarily focusing on essential purchases, with expectations for short-term price stability [2] Group 3: Price Data - Current prices for various types of metallurgical coke in different regions are as follows: - Linfen first-class dry quenching metallurgical coke at 1840 yuan/ton [2] - Taiyuan first-class dry quenching metallurgical coke at 1840 yuan/ton [2] - Jinzhong first-class dry quenching metallurgical coke at 1860 yuan/ton [3] - Other regional prices include: - Tangshan first-class coke at 1900 yuan/ton [4] - Lüliang first-class coke at 1640 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Coking Coal Market - On August 8, the coking coal market in Jinzhong showed a stable to weak trend, with most coal mines maintaining normal production levels [6] - The overall market transaction atmosphere was flat, with cautious purchasing behavior from steel enterprises focusing on inventory consumption [6] - In the Lüliang market, coking coal prices showed slight stabilization, with some coal types indicating short-term stabilization characteristics [7] Group 5: Import and Export Trends - In November, India imported 1597.9 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 5.17% [17] - China's coal imports in November reached 4405.3 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 231.6 million tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [17] - Shaanxi Coal Industry reported a coal production of 1479 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 5.18% [17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Coal Daily Report - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Qualification Number: F3068848 [5] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017786 [5] - Contact Information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - On November 28, port market quotations continued to decline, with increased willingness of traders to sell, and the mainstream price range further moved down. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 820 - 825 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 720 - 725 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 620 - 625 yuan/ton in the port market. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2]. Group 3: Important Information - From January to October this year, national railways累计 sent 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Supply - The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 27, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply tended to be loose. However, in late November, the coal output in major producing areas was running at a low level, and the supply tightened [4]. Import - China's procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on China's demand [4]. Demand - This week, the demand was mediocre. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement performance was average, and there was still no improvement in India's procurement demand. Power plant loads were maintained between 60 - 70%, and the operation was relatively stable. Downstream power plants mainly relied on long - term agreement coal to replenish inventory, with limited demand for market coal. Non - power industries purchased on demand and had a significantly lower acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Inventory - Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 30 trains. The port inventory was generally stable. As of November 28, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory depletion, while inland power plants had a neutral inventory [4]. Price Forecast - Currently, the port FOB price is weakly回调. The pit - mouth safety supervision has been lifted, the coal mine operating rate has increased, production has risen, and the demand for chemical coal is okay, so the pit - mouth price has weakly declined. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, November 25, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [6][9] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On November 25, port market thermal coal quotes showed signs of weakness. 5500 kcal coal was quoted at 830 - 840 yuan/ton, 5000 kcal at 730 - 740 yuan/ton, and 4500 kcal at 630 - 640 yuan/ton. Different regions had varying non - power enterprise coal prices [2]. Group 3: Important News - National Railway Freight: From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 3.378 billion tons of goods, a 3% year - on - year increase, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a 4% year - on - year increase [3]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Supply - Domestic Supply: As of November 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily coal output of the two cities was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply was becoming more abundant [4]. - Import: Chinese procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise. Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on Chinese demand [4]. Demand - General Demand: This week, demand was mediocre. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while that of Japan and South Korea was average, and India's procurement demand showed no improvement. Heating load growth did not meet expectations, and power plant daily consumption increased slowly, with power plant loads generally operating in the 60% - 70% range [4]. - Coal Procurement: Power plants mainly pulled long - term contract supplies, with extremely limited demand for market coal. They had a very low acceptance of high - priced coal and strong willingness to bargain, leading to a stalemate in market transactions [4]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transport volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. Port inventory remained stable, with the inventory of Bohai Rim ports at 24.85 million tons as of November 25, at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Power Plant Inventory: Coastal power plant daily consumption was low, but inventory continued to decline. Inland power plant inventory was at a neutral level [4]. Price Forecast - Overall: In late November, coal production in major producing areas was low. Power plant inventory continued to decline, and import profits were available. Coastal power plants increased procurement. Port inventory fluctuated within a range. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4]. Group 5: Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the inventory and daily consumption data of various ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to be weak in the short term. As of late November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, the supply is tightening, the power plant inventory is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, the port inventory fluctuates within a range, the power plant daily consumption hovers at a low level, and the coal consumption is average, but the coastal power plant inventory is lower than the same period and continues to make rigid - demand purchases, leading to a continuous increase in the port FOB price. The increase in pit - mouth price has narrowed [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On November 24, the port market showed a continuous game between buyers and sellers, and the overall quotation remained stable. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and other regions, the prices of different - calorie non - power enterprise coal were also within certain ranges. The mainstream quotation of 5500 - kcal thermal coal at Jiangnei Port was 890 - 900 yuan/ton, and the 5000 - kcal coal was quoted at 790 - 800 yuan/ton [2]. Important News - From January to October this year, the national railways cumulatively sent 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, setting a record high for the same period; the average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3]. Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine start - up rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 23, the coal mine start - up rate in Ordos was 78%, and that in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply tended to be loose. Entering late November, the coal output in major producing areas was running at a low level, the coal start - up rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, and the daily average output was around 3.8 million tons, with supply tightening [4]. - **Import**: China's demand has weakened, but the international coal price has still risen. The precipitation in Indonesia still affects the tight supply of goods, the number of overseas cargoes is small, and the miners have a strong willingness to hold up prices [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the demand performance was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement performance was average, and India's procurement demand still did not improve. With the deepening of winter, the demand for heating coal has increased significantly, but the growth momentum of coal - consumption demand in the industrial industry is insufficient due to the overall economic situation. Power plants are mainly cautious in procurement, mainly locking in part of the coal source through long - term contracts and flexibly adjusting the market coal according to market dynamics [4]. - **Inventory**: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30 trains. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 21, the inventory of Bohai - Rim ports was 24.6 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of inland power plants is neutral [4].

Group 1 - The average profit for independent coking plants in China is 19 CNY per ton of coke, with regional variations such as 20 CNY in Shanxi and 80 CNY in Shandong [1] - The average daily coke production from 247 sampled steel mills is 46.22 thousand tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.23% [1] - Coking coal inventory has increased to 797.08 thousand tons, with an available days supply of 12.97 days [1] Group 2 - Recent market conditions for coking coal have weakened, with the average profit for coke increasing by 53 CNY per ton, reaching a two-month high [2] - Independent coking enterprises have seen a 12.3% increase in coke inventory, totaling 652.9 thousand tons, while steel mill coke inventory has slightly decreased [2] - There are mixed opinions on future price adjustments, with some suggesting that weak downstream demand may lead to price reductions [2][3] Group 3 - The metallurgical coke prices in the Lüliang market have stabilized after a recent increase of 50-55 CNY per ton [3] - The average price for various grades of metallurgical coke ranges from 1685 to 1805 CNY per ton [3] Group 4 - The online auction prices for high-sulfur coking coal in the Lüliang market have decreased, with transaction prices between 1220 and 1250 CNY per ton [5] - The overall market for coking coal in the Jinzhong area is showing a weak trend, with prices remaining under pressure [6] Group 5 - The import market for coking coal is showing a weak trend, with Australian coking coal prices remaining stable at around 214.0 USD per ton [7] - The Mongolian coking coal market is also experiencing a downturn, with prices declining due to weak demand [8] Group 6 - China's coal imports for October 2025 reached 31.14 million tons, marking a 14.2% year-on-year decline [16] - The average coal price in Shanxi province was reported at 955.92 CNY per ton, with a 2.9% increase week-on-week [17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, November 20, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [6][9] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact Information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5][13] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On November 20, the port market showed a stalemate between supply and demand, with overall stable quotes. Different calorific value coal prices are provided for various regions including ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei [2] Group 3: Important Information - Power Generation: In October, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 18, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall [4] - Import: Chinese demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. Indonesian precipitation affected the supply, and overseas cargo volumes were limited, with miners having a strong willingness to hold prices [4] - Demand: This week's demand was average. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while that of Japan and South Korea was average, and India's procurement demand did not improve. Most power plants' operating loads were in the 60% - 70% range, and their inventories were at medium - to - high levels [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 24.48 million tons, at a neutral level in history [4] - Price Forecast: It is expected that coal prices will remain stable in the short term. The coal mine output in the main producing areas is low, power plant inventories are decreasing, and the import profit is open. Coastal power plants are increasing procurement, and port prices have risen [4] Group 5: Related Charts - Charts include coal inventories and consumption data of various regions and power plants from 2022 to 2025, such as national port inventory, power plant inventory, and daily consumption [7][8]

Group 1: Market Review - On November 19, the port market showed a stalemate between supply and demand, with overall stable quotes. The quotes for 5500 - calorie coal were 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - calorie coal were 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - calorie coal were 640 - 650 yuan/ton. In different regions, non - electric enterprise coal prices also had corresponding ranges [2]. Group 2: Important Information - On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the power production growth of above - scale industries in China accelerated. In October, the power generation of above - scale industries was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September; the daily average power generation was 25.81 billion kWh. From January to October, the power generation of above - scale industries was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Group 3: Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 18, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall. Import: China's demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. Demand: This week, the demand was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand still did not improve. Supply: The rainfall in Indonesia still affected the tight supply of goods, the number of overseas cargoes was small, and miners were more willing to hold prices. Most power plants' operating loads were in the range of 60% - 70%, and the overall inventory of power plants was at a medium - high level. In market procurement, most power plants preferred to fulfill long - term contracts, and some power plants, expecting the subsequent market coal price to rise, chose to conduct a small amount of tender procurement for market coal. Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. The port inflow was stable, and the outflow remained high. As of November 19, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 24.4 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, but the inventory continued to decline, while the inventory of inland power plants was neutral. Overall, in mid - November, the coal production in the main producing areas was low. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily average output of around 3.8 million tons, and the supply tightened. The power plant inventory continued to decline, the import profit was realized, and coastal power plants increased their procurement efforts. The port inflow and outflow were at low levels, and the port inventory fluctuated within a range. As the high - temperature weather across the country subsided, the daily consumption of power plants hovered at a low level, and the coal consumption was average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants was lower than the same period, and they continued to make rigid - demand purchases. The port FOB price rose continuously. With strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, the coal mine operating rate was low, and the production was average. The demand for chemical coal was acceptable, and the increase in the mine - mouth price narrowed. It is expected that the coal price will slow down in the short term [4].