[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Aug 2025 美国必需消费 US Staples 美国消费行业 7 月跟踪报告：非农前值大幅下修，整体继续谨慎 The previous non-farm payrolls figure has been significantly revised downward, continue to be cautious 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen 肖韦俐 Weili Xiao hongwei.wen@htisec.com wl.xiao@htisec.com [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：信心指数下滑，非农前值大幅下修。（1）整体：信心指数下滑，零售数据韧性仍在。美国密歇根消费者信 心指数 8 月为 58.6，较 7 月的 61.7 下降 5%，为四个月来首次回落，远低于市场预期的 62。7 月美国零售销售数据 为 7262.8 亿美元，同比增长 3.9%（6 月同比增长 4.4%）。分项来看，汽车销售表现优秀（+1.6%），受 9 月 ...

据哥伦比亚《时代报》8月19日报道，哥财政部长阿维拉在2026年国家预 算案发布会上表示，即将提交的新一轮税收改革拟对酒类与烟草消费加征新 税，并在所得税及财产税方面进一步提高累进税率。同时，改革将全面审查现 行增值税优惠政策，尤其针对适用于高收入群体消费的商品与服务。 （原标题：哥伦比亚拟对酒类与烟草征税） ...

Group 1: Transportation Services - Pakistan's revenue from transportation services reached $878 million in the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024-2025, marking a 25.06% increase from $702 million in the same period last year [7] - Maritime service exports grew by 1.34% from $101 million to $102 million, while air transport exports increased by 25.77% from $575 million to $723 million [7] - Road transport exports saw a significant rise of 67.09%, increasing from $23 million to $38 million [7] Group 2: Fiscal Performance - The budget deficit for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 6.168 trillion PKR, which is 5.38% of GDP, the lowest in nine years [7] - Total revenue for the same fiscal year is estimated at 17.997 trillion PKR, accounting for 15.7% of GDP, while total expenditure is 24.165 trillion PKR, or 21.1% of GDP [7] - The GDP for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is estimated at 114.692 trillion PKR [7] Group 3: Tobacco Exports - Tobacco exports for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached $167 million, a remarkable increase of 158.31% from $64 million in the previous fiscal year [8] - The total volume of tobacco exports also rose significantly from 18,282 tons to 43,520 tons, reflecting a growth of 140.18% [8] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Initiative - The government approved a five-year subsidy plan to promote 116,000 electric bicycles and 3,170 electric rickshaws, with an estimated cost of 100 billion PKR [8] - This initiative aims to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, reduce oil imports, and promote environmental sustainability [8] Group 5: Trade with Neighboring Countries - Exports to seven countries, including Afghanistan, China, and India, totaled $4.427 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.08%, representing 13.70% of Pakistan's total exports of $33.295 billion [10] - Imports from these countries amounted to $16.699 billion, reflecting a 30.07% increase from $13.838 billion in the previous fiscal year [10] Group 6: Agricultural Census - The 2024 agricultural census revealed that the number of farming households in Pakistan increased from 8.3 million in 2010 to 11.7 million [10] - The total cultivated area expanded from 4.26 million acres in 2010 to 5.28 million acres in 2024, with livestock numbers reaching 251 million, growing at an annual rate of 3.18% since 2006 [10] Group 7: Land Port Authority Legislation - The National Assembly passed the "2025 Pakistan Land Port Authority Bill" to facilitate the movement of goods and people at border crossings [10] - This legislation positions Pakistan as the third South Asian country to establish a land port authority, following Bangladesh and India, and aims to enhance trade and border control [10]

拓效：多维发力释势能 筑基：精耕内容强内核 视频团队拆解特色文化为具象符号，将抽象内涵转化为镜头可捕捉的生活片段；脚本实行 "三审三 改"，通过匠人神情、生活仪式感等细节传递价值，深化文化渗透。 实践：协同构建参与生态 打破专业主导模式，动员商户、消费者等参与拍摄，让每个人成为文化传播 "活载体"；选取老街茶馆 等地域场景，用实景拍摄替代棚拍，强化观看代入感。 在数字化传播浪潮下，如何让特色文化破圈传播、让市场活力持续迸发？青山区营销部给出了创新答 案。为积极响应创新推进工作要求，客服部以短视频为突破口，探索出一条"文化传播有深度、市场拓 展有力度" 的新路径，通过系统化运作，实现了从认知提升到情感共鸣、从口碑积累到市场增长的递进 式突破。 破题：锚定痛点明方向 针对传统宣传 "文化表达抽象、受众互动弱" 的瓶颈，客服部以短视频连接文化与大众，聚焦 "提升认 知与兴趣"，追求"口碑与市场双提升"，为区域发展注入动能。 线上依托平台与群组裂变传播，线下结合宣讲会展播，形成 "观看 — 体验 — 分享" 闭环。短视频既推 动特色文化从小众到大众，又激活市场转化，实现文化与市场同频共振。 从内容创作的精耕细作，到参 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the deadline for imposing tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, indicating an intensifying trade negotiation phase between the U.S. and the EU [1] Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The core objective of the negotiations is to encourage the EU to open its markets to U.S. exports, with the EU seeking a deal contingent on offering favorable conditions to avoid a 30% tariff threat from the U.S. [3] - The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on over 70% of EU exports, with steel and aluminum tariffs at 50%, automotive parts at 25%, and other goods generally at 10% [3] - A key meeting between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump is scheduled, which is seen as a critical juncture in the tariff negotiations [3] Group 2: EU's Countermeasures - The EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail, merging previous lists targeting €21 billion and an additional €72 billion in U.S. products [4] - Affected U.S. products include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, bourbon whiskey, motorcycles, jeans, tobacco, yachts, and diamonds, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [4] - The EU's stance is becoming increasingly firm, with member states like Germany supporting the use of retaliatory measures [4] Group 3: Negotiation Challenges - The initial deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" set by Trump was July 9, later extended to August 1, with limited agreements reached with a few countries [5] - Trump indicated that most agreements are not bilateral free trade agreements but unilateral letters from the U.S., with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 15% [5] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, citing uncertainty in the economic outlook primarily due to the unclear prospects of U.S.-EU trade negotiations [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the development of the Phoenix Industrial Park in Trinidad and Tobago, which is a key infrastructure project supported by the government and part of the Belt and Road Initiative with China [1][2] - The park covers approximately 580,000 square meters and is the first comprehensive, smart industrial park in Latin America and the Caribbean to achieve 5G network coverage [1] Group 1: Company Development - Ian Badohasingh, a local entrepreneur, is constructing a factory in the Phoenix Industrial Park, aiming to expand his tobacco distribution business [1] - The factory is designed to accommodate around 50 workers simultaneously, with plans for a second facility already in consideration [2] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The location of the Phoenix Industrial Park near the port provides significant logistical advantages, reducing costs and facilitating import and export operations for businesses [1] - The park's designation as an economic zone offers tax incentives, which are seen as a critical opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises [1][2] Group 3: International Collaboration - Badohasingh emphasizes the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative in enhancing cooperation between China and Caribbean nations, particularly in infrastructure development and investment attraction [2] - The entrepreneur has a long-standing relationship with Chinese businesses, having engaged in trade for over 15 years, which underscores the growing economic ties [2]

智通财经7月16日电，欧盟委员会提议引入新的收入来源，将包括烟草。 ...

Economic Overview - Cuba's GDP is projected to decline by 1.1% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a continued contraction in the economy despite a smaller decrease compared to the previous year [1] - The country faces significant inflationary pressures, a chaotic foreign exchange market, and severe shortages of resources such as foreign currency, fuel, and electricity, which are hampering industrial production and public services [1] Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, national export earnings are expected to decrease by 7% year-on-year, with some recovery in tobacco and seafood exports not compensating for declines in minerals, honey, and biopharmaceuticals [1] - The overall export plan for the first half of the year was only 62% completed, falling short of the previous year's performance [1] Government Response - The Cuban government has developed a special plan aimed at restoring electricity production capacity and ensuring the supply of raw materials while maximizing existing production capacity [2] - A macroeconomic stabilization plan will be prioritized in the second half of 2025, focusing on increasing foreign exchange income, enhancing domestic food production, and improving industrial capacity utilization [2] - The Cuban President has called for a shift in development strategy to stabilize the economy by boosting domestic production, promoting exports, and reducing reliance on imports [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of State announced sanctions against Cuban President Díaz-Canel and other senior officials, which may affect their ability to attend international events in the U.S. [2][3] - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy to strengthen economic sanctions against Cuba, including updating the list of restricted entities [3][4] - Cuba's Foreign Minister Rodríguez stated that U.S. sanctions have caused annual economic losses of billions of dollars, with cumulative losses exceeding $164.1 billion due to decades of economic and financial blockades [1][6] Group 2 - Cuba's economy is heavily reliant on key sectors such as nickel mining, sugar production, and tourism, with significant mineral resources including nickel, cobalt, and iron [5][6] - The country faces severe shortages of essential goods due to U.S. sanctions, which cover nearly all aspects of daily life, leading to a significant decline in living standards [6][7] - In 2023, Cuba's GDP was reported at 51.237 billion Cuban pesos (approximately $1.9 billion), with major exports including nickel, seafood, and tobacco [6]