白酒行业，正在探底。 周期之后，白酒行业大概率能重拾往日的荣光。 2015年6月，口子窖以"兼香第一股"身份登陆上交所，成为徽酒阵营中仅次于古井贡酒的明星企业。 所谓「盘中盘」模式，即以政商务宴请等高端消费人群为突破口，通过餐饮终端"小盘"带动零售、团购 等大众市场"大盘"，向外扩散至中低端消费群体。配合盘中盘模式，口子窖推出了核心单品「口子窖5 年」，虽然定价不高，但这款产品却为口子窖带来了巨大的营收，并让其走出困境。 崛起的关键 口子窖的前身，是国营濉溪人民酒厂。 1997年，淮北市口子酒厂与濉溪县口子酒厂合并，口子窖由此成立。但由于此前双方内耗太过严重，再 加上当时浓香白酒竞争已经陷入白热化阶段，再度合并成立的口子窖一度面临生存危机，资金链几乎断 裂，甚至要借钱才能开得起产品发布会。 不过，困境并没有持续太长时间，很快口子窖就渡过了难关，而帮助口子窖走出困境的是一项创新性的 销售模式——「盘中盘」模式。 上市第一年，在「盘中盘」模式与「大商制」双轮驱动下，口子窖就实现了25.84亿元的营收和6.054亿 元的净利润。而2018年，口子窖营收更是顺利突破40亿元大关，达42.69亿元，净利润为15.33亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction announcement by Liu Ansheng, the second-largest shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, highlights the financial pressures faced by the company amid a challenging market environment, reflecting broader issues within the liquor industry [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Liu Ansheng plans to reduce his holdings by up to 10 million shares, representing 1.67% of the total share capital, potentially raising around 340 million yuan at the current share price [1]. - Since the expiration of the lock-up period in 2018, Liu has gradually reduced his stake, with cumulative cashing out expected to exceed 1 billion yuan if the current plan is executed [2]. - Currently, 49.7% of Liu's remaining shares are pledged, raising concerns about his financial situation and the stability of the company's equity structure [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Kuozi Jiao's revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 2.42%, marking the lowest growth rate since 2021 [4]. - For the full year of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a mere 0.89% increase, and a net profit decline of 3.83%, the first drop since its listing [4]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 fell to 47%, the lowest since 2018, raising questions about the company's profit distribution policy [4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with significant impacts from sales restrictions and a decline in demand for mid-to-high-end liquor [5]. - Kuozi Jiao faces intensified competition, particularly from local brands, which threatens its market position [5]. - The company is struggling with product, channel, and brand challenges, as new product launches have not met market expectations, and its traditional distribution model is becoming less effective [6].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape among the four major listed liquor companies in Anhui has become increasingly polarized, with Gujing Gongjiu solidifying its leading position while other companies face varying degrees of challenges and declines [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the four listed liquor companies in Anhui achieved a total net profit of 9.504 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%, and total operating revenue of 37.862 billion yuan, up 10.05% [2] - Gujing Gongjiu reported a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, surpassing the combined profits of the second and third-ranked companies, with a net profit growth rate of 46.01%, the highest among the four [2] - Gujing Gongjiu's operating revenue reached 23.578 billion yuan, growing by 16.41%, significantly outpacing the 8.46% revenue growth of Yingjia Gongjiu [2] Product Strategy - Gujing Gongjiu has developed a product matrix covering price ranges from 100 to 500 yuan, effectively meeting both mass consumption and premium market demands [4] - The core product line includes high-revenue contributors like the "Gujing 20," which has annual sales close to 5 billion yuan, supporting overall revenue growth [4] Channel Strategy - Gujing Gongjiu employs a platform merchant recruitment model, enhancing its market control and supporting continuous market share expansion [6] - Yingjia Gongjiu has outperformed Kouzi Jiao in recent years, achieving a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.45%, while Kouzi Jiao's net profit fell by 3.83% to 1.689 billion yuan [6][7] Competitive Dynamics - Kouzi Jiao's revenue growth has stagnated, with a slight increase of only 0.89%, while its gross margin decreased from 75.19% to 74.59% [6][7] - Yingjia Gongjiu's effective product and market strategies have allowed it to narrow the gap in gross margin with Kouzi Jiao [6] Market Positioning - Kouzi Jiao's reliance on traditional distribution models has weakened its market control, leading to pricing chaos and poor product movement [7][9] - Yingjia Gongjiu's innovative "1+1+N" model has facilitated channel penetration and refined management, laying a foundation for growth [11] Challenges Faced by Other Companies - Jinzhongzi Jiu reported a significant revenue decline of 37.04% to 925 million yuan, with net losses expanding to 258 million yuan [11][13] - Jinzhongzi Jiu's product structure imbalance and failed price adjustments have severely impacted its sales performance [13]