这也是白酒行业首份年度业绩预告出炉。 此前发布的 2025 年前三季度显示，口子窖的归母净利润为7.42亿元，同比减少 43 . 39%， 按照 披露的预计净利润， 2025 年第四季度口子窖的归母净利润同比大幅缩减，甚至可能出现亏损。 对比三季报，口子窖净利润下滑幅度进一步加大。 公告称，业绩预减的原因，主要是报告期内白酒行业市场分化与渠道变革加剧，叠加需求下行 及政策变化影响，核心利润来源高端窖产品销量大幅下滑，导致营业收入减少，同时为保 证公 司运营及市场持续投入，管理费用、销售费用下降幅度均小于营业收入下降幅度致利润总额下 降幅度较大。 截至公告日，口子窖股价报30.32元， 1 月 9 日收盘报 30 . 21 元，最新市值18 0 . 69 亿元， 2025年全年股价累计下跌2 0 %。 高档酒销量下滑 资料图。 口子窖发布年度业绩预告 王琳 2025 年末，白酒行业的深度调整态势仍在持续发酵 。 1月7日晚间，徽酒"四朵金花"之一的口子窖（603589.SH）发布2025年年度业绩预减公告称，经 财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为6 . 62亿元到8 . 2 8 ...

单看第四季度，25Q4口子窖预计实现归母净利润为-7991万元至8559万元。以此来看，公司25Q4最好的 情况也将是净利润同比下降约75%。 业绩腰斩之际，口子窖开始将目光瞄准散酒领域。去年12月5日，口子窖宣布在安徽淮北开出首家直 营"口子酒坊"，定位"家门口的老酒铺"，主打纯粮散酒与社区化体验，现打现卖濉溪大曲、口子酒、口 子窖三款核心产品，旨在满足口粮酒复购需求。 中国酒业独立评论人肖竹青对智通财经记者表示，口子窖用直营酒坊，以"厂家直营+散酒高频复购"切 入，本质是重建终端触点，把价格、陈列、动销数据重新握在自己手里，同时用散酒承接低端需求，防 止份额被光瓶名酒继续蚕食，但效果如何还有待观察。 事实上，口子窖的业绩恶化此前已有端倪。 2025年前三季度，口子窖营收为31.74亿元，同比下降27.24%；净利润为7.42亿元，同比下降43.39%。 其中，当年第三季度营收为6.43亿元，同比下降46.23%；净利润为2696.51万元，同比下降92.55%。这 是口子窖2016年以来单季度最差营收，更是2015年公司上市以来单季度最差盈利。 尽管如此，口子窖2025年的业绩恶化程度还是超出了多数券商预 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 智通财经1月7日讯（记者 朱万平）白酒行业深度调整、叠加政策调整背景下，白酒股第一份业绩预告 出炉："徽酒老三"口子窖（603589.SH）2025年净利润预计同比减少超五成。业绩重挫之下，口子窖开 始将目光瞄准在散酒领域。 今日晚间，口子窖发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归母净利润为6.62亿元至8.28亿元，同比减少50%到 60%；预计扣非后归母净利润为6.45亿元至8.11亿元，同比减少49.65%至59.93%。 口子窖表示，公司业绩下滑主要系白酒行业市场分化与渠道变革加剧，叠加需求下行及政策变化影响， 核心利润来源高端窖产品销量大幅下滑，导致营业收入减少，同时为保证公司运营及市场持续投入，管 理费用、销售费用下降幅度均小于营业收入下降幅度，致利润总额下降幅度较大。 单看第四季度，25Q4口子窖预计实现归母净利润为-7991万元至8559万元。以此来看，公司25Q4最好的 情况也将是净利润同比下降约75%。 业绩腰斩之际，口子窖开始将目光瞄准散酒领域。去年12月5日，口子窖宣布在安徽淮北开出首家直 营"口子酒坊"，定位"家门口的老酒铺"，主打纯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Anhui liquor industry is collectively shifting towards community-focused sales models, with companies like Kuozi Jiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu opening local liquor shops to directly engage with consumers [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional sales model relied heavily on distributors, but the new "liquor shop" approach requires companies to engage directly with consumers, shifting from brand-centric to retail-centric thinking [1][2]. - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with Kuozi Jiao's market position declining, Gujing Gongjiu leading in scale and growth, and Yingjia Gongjiu surpassing Kuozi Jiao to become the second-largest player [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported a revenue of 3.174 billion yuan and a net profit of 742 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 27.24% and 43.39% respectively, with a 92.55% drop in net profit for Q3 [8][12]. - Gujing Gongjiu's revenue was 16.425 billion yuan and net profit 3.96 billion yuan, down 13.87% and 16.57% year-on-year [8]. - Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue reached 4.516 billion yuan with a net profit of 1.511 billion yuan, showing declines of 18.09% and 24.67% respectively [9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The demand for liquor has slowed, with a notable decrease in corporate group purchases and business banquets, leading to a reassessment of consumption structures towards community retail and personal consumption [16][17]. - The competition among Anhui liquor brands is shifting from scale expansion to intense competition at the retail level [18]. - The traditional year-end negotiations between liquor companies and distributors are changing, with companies adopting a more cautious approach in setting sales targets [19]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - Kuozi Jiao's move to open community liquor shops symbolizes a strategic shift to regain direct consumer engagement amid market pressures [14][20]. - The industry faces a critical challenge in transitioning from a reliance on wholesale distribution to a focus on direct sales and consumer engagement [21][22].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trend of traditional liquor companies in Anhui, China, exploring new business models in response to market saturation and changing consumer preferences, particularly focusing on the launch of "liquor shops" that sell bulk liquor directly to consumers [1][7][9] Group 1: New Business Models - Gujing Gongjiu opened its first "Gujing Liquor Shop" in Bozhou, adopting a "front store, back workshop" model, allowing for on-site liquor sales [2][5] - Kouzi Jiu launched its first "Kouzi Liquor Workshop" in Huai Bei, emphasizing community engagement and selling bulk liquor directly [5][8] - Yingjia Gongjiu has also entered the bulk liquor market with multiple stores in Hefei, offering competitive pricing for bulk liquor [5][7] Group 2: Consumer Engagement and Trends - The new liquor shops aim to attract younger consumers by offering interactive experiences such as DIY activities and free tastings [2][3] - The pricing strategy for bulk liquor ranges from 2.9 yuan to 29.9 yuan per 50 milliliters, catering to a variety of consumer preferences [3][5] - Analysts suggest that these new models are a response to the shift towards lighter, more personalized drinking experiences, moving away from traditional heavy consumption scenarios [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Intent and Market Challenges - The strategic intent behind these new liquor shops is to strengthen brand interaction with consumers and adapt to the challenges posed by market saturation and the loss of younger customers [7][8] - The operational models differ, with Gujing focusing on a trendy retail experience and Kouzi emphasizing traditional craftsmanship and cultural storytelling [7][8] - Challenges include high operational costs, potential conflicts with traditional distribution channels, and the need to change consumer perceptions of bulk liquor [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period, significantly impacting medium-sized liquor companies like Kuozi Jiao [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 3.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of approximately 27% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 742 million yuan, down over 43% year-on-year, with a staggering 92.55% decline in the third quarter [1][3] - Operating cash flow turned negative at -390 million yuan, marking only the second occurrence of negative cash flow in the past decade [2][8] Sales Performance - High and mid-range liquor sales saw double-digit declines, while low-end liquor sales increased by 25.09% [2][8] - The sales revenue from high and mid-range liquor was 2.961 billion yuan and 41.304 million yuan, respectively, both showing significant year-on-year declines [7][8] Market Dependency - Kuozi Jiao remains highly dependent on the Anhui provincial market, with provincial revenue accounting for 84.54% in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company’s high-end liquor revenue growth has been declining, with growth rates of 1.94%, 16.58%, and 0.06% from 2022 to 2024 [7] Cost Structure - Despite the significant drop in net profit, the company’s selling expenses were 515 million yuan, only a 17.47% decrease year-on-year, indicating that cost reductions have not kept pace with revenue declines [4][8] - Management expenses increased slightly to 283 million yuan, compared to 280 million yuan in the previous year [4] Inventory Levels - As of September 2025, Kuozi Jiao's inventory reached a historical high of 6.218 billion yuan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kuaizi Jiao, reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting the intensified competition and challenges within the Chinese liquor market [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kuaizi Jiao achieved operating revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 711 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [1]. - High-end liquor revenue was 2.385 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 96% of total liquor revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [1]. Sales Channels - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in the wholesale and agency channel, which generated 2.352 billion yuan, representing about 95% of channel revenue [1]. - Direct sales, including group purchases, showed good growth despite their small proportion in total sales [1]. Regional Sales - Revenue from the domestic market was 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 384 million yuan, a decrease of 19.24% [2]. Market Strategy - Kuaizi Jiao plans to accelerate the construction of its Shanghai marketing center and enhance its market presence in key areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [3]. - The company aims to support its distributors through targeted visits and management improvements to enhance their market-building capabilities [3]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition from numerous liquor producers in the Huaihe River basin and other regions, which has led to a challenging market environment characterized by low demand and high inventory levels [3]. - Kuaizi Jiao's brand influence and marketing effectiveness are under scrutiny, especially after being removed from major indices like the SSE 180 Index and MSCI China Index in 2024 [4]. Future Goals - In early 2024, Kuaizi Jiao set a three-year development goal to reach a revenue target of 10 billion yuan, although stabilizing high-end liquor sales is currently prioritized [4].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kuaijiao, a leading Chinese liquor brand, has declined significantly in the first half of 2025, reflecting the intensified competition and market challenges in the liquor industry [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kuaijiao reported revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 711 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 698 million yuan, a decline of 24.90% compared to the previous year [2]. Revenue Structure - High-end liquor sales accounted for approximately 96% of total revenue, generating 2.385 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 19.80% [3]. - The wholesale and agency channel saw a significant drop in revenue, totaling 2.352 billion yuan, down 21.26% year-on-year, while direct sales (including group purchases) grew by 44.57% to 133 million yuan [3]. Sales and Marketing - Sales expenses decreased to 357 million yuan, a decline of 25.11% year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional spending and lower television advertising [4]. - Revenue from the domestic market was 2.1 billion yuan, down 19.31%, while revenue from outside the province was 384 million yuan, down 19.24% [4]. Market Competition - The liquor market is increasingly competitive, with numerous producers in the Huaihe River basin and surrounding areas, including well-known brands from Guizhou, Sichuan, and Shanxi [5][6]. - Kuaijiao plans to enhance its market presence by accelerating the construction of its Shanghai marketing center and expanding into key markets in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to support its distributors through targeted visits and management improvements, enhancing their market-building capabilities [6]. - Kuaijiao's profitability has come under scrutiny, with the company being removed from major indices in 2024, and its founder planning to reduce shareholding by up to 10 million shares, valued at over 300 million yuan [6].