机构：辉立证券(香港) 研究员：李晓然 公司簡介 配售強化資金儲備及加速管道擴張 2025 年5 月，公司以630 港元/股配售431 萬股新H 股，淨募資26.98 億港元，主要用於核心業務發展 （80%）及補充流動資金（20%）。公司擬通過配售所得款項繼續加速開拓中國內地門店，覆蓋更廣闊 的不同城市不同高端商業中心的消費群體，實現對現有門店面積擴建後的業務支持以及支持同店銷售的 快速增長。 估值及投資建議： 近期金價持續攀升，COMEX 黃金一度突破4000 美元/盎司，黃金成為避險資產的首選，央行也在不斷 增加黃金儲備，中國人民銀行最新資料顯示：2025 年9 月，中國增持黃金1.24 噸，截至2025 年9 月底， 我國黃金儲備為2303.52噸。上周中美經貿衝突升級，黃金受避險利好價格上漲，長期來看，我們認為 驅動黃金價格上漲的動力仍存，金價有望持續走強。 中國黃金協會資料顯示，2025 年上半年，全國黃金消費量為505.21 噸，同比下降3.54%。其中：黃金首 飾199.83 噸，同比下降26%，雖然高金價抑制黃金首飾消費，但輕克重、設計感強、附加值高的首飾產 品仍然受青睞，這類產品使得商家盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rise of domestic brands in China's high-end consumer market, exemplified by the recent opening of Lao Pu Gold's new store in Shanghai, which reflects the brand's strategic expansion and growing influence in the luxury sector [1][6][9]. Group 1: Company Expansion - Lao Pu Gold opened its third store in Shanghai within three months, following openings in May and June at other high-end locations [1][7]. - The new store is strategically located in a prominent luxury shopping area, enhancing Lao Pu Gold's presence in key commercial centers [7][8]. - The brand's international expansion is also notable, with the opening of its first overseas store in Singapore, which has exceeded expectations in terms of customer traffic and sales [8][10]. Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The opening event attracted significant consumer interest, with long queues and a proactive approach to enhance customer experience, including providing umbrellas and fans [7][8]. - Customers expressed enthusiasm for the brand's products, noting the craftsmanship and cultural significance of the jewelry [7][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Lao Pu Gold's sales performance is impressive, with a projected revenue of 14.3 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a 252% year-on-year increase [10][11]. - The brand's net profit is expected to reach 2.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 292% increase compared to the previous year [10][11]. - The company's growth is attributed to its expanding brand influence, product optimization, and strategic store openings, which are expected to continue driving revenue growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gold and jewelry industry is facing significant challenges due to high gold prices, low consumer demand, and the departure of leading brands to Southeast Asia, which has created a sense of anxiety among operators [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current gold price trend has lasted nearly 14 months, with a shift from consumer-oriented gold jewelry to investment gold bars, leading to a decline in sales of mid-to-high weight gold jewelry [1]. - The departure of leading brands from the domestic market has negatively impacted the confidence of agents and franchisees, as these brands are market leaders whose strategies influence overall market sentiment [1][2]. - The market is experiencing a structural transformation, with many operators recognizing the need for adjustment but often being distracted by short-term profits from traditional gold jewelry sales [2][4]. Group 2: Innovation and Adaptation - The industry is entering a "recessionary market," necessitating structural transformation for survival and future growth, with a focus on innovation primarily driven by small and medium enterprises [4][11]. - The successful brands emerging in this environment are those that leverage technological and cultural innovations, creating unique products that resonate with contemporary consumer preferences [7][10]. - The cultural revival and the trend towards "Guochao" (national trend) are driving demand for traditional Chinese jewelry, such as jade and pearls, which are filling the market gap left by declining diamond sales [12]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies must align their strategies with national goals of innovation and quality improvement, as failure to adapt could lead to market elimination [5]. - The focus should be on developing core competitive advantages through original cultural IP and innovative applications of traditional craftsmanship, rather than merely following trends [11][12]. - The industry is encouraged to embrace change and seek new business models that can thrive in a challenging market environment, as historical patterns show that crises often lead to significant innovation [4][12].