Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the credit bond industry Core Insights - The report discusses the challenges of achieving excess returns in credit bond investments due to a low interest rate and low credit spread environment, emphasizing the need for effective investment strategies [5] - It outlines a framework for analyzing credit bonds, including market segmentation, historical performance during "asset scarcity" phases, and a five-factor model for credit spreads [5][7] - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the Chinese credit bond market, with total outstanding credit bonds reaching CNY 46.99 trillion by July 2025, of which non-financial credit bonds account for CNY 31.96 trillion [13][14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Chinese Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market in China has expanded significantly since 2009, with a notable increase in the variety of products available [11][13] - As of July 2025, the total balance of credit bonds is CNY 46.99 trillion, with non-financial credit bonds making up 68% of this total [13][14] 2. Analysis Framework for Credit Bond "Asset Scarcity" - The report analyzes four phases of "asset scarcity" since 2015, identifying key characteristics and predictive indicators for investors [5][7] 3. Historical Review of Credit Spreads - A historical review of credit spreads since 2008 reveals significant fluctuations, with a focus on the factors influencing these changes [5][7] 4. Research Framework for Credit Spreads - The report presents a five-factor model for analyzing credit spreads, noting that while the factors remain the same, the focus has shifted in the current market context [5][7] 5. Common Investment Strategies in the Credit Bond Market - The report discusses various investment strategies, including duration management, credit selection, leverage operations, and tactical trading, which are crucial for navigating the current low spread environment [5][7]

Core Insights - The issuance of bonds by commercial banks has significantly increased in 2023, with a total of 77 bonds issued amounting to 749.05 billion yuan, representing a 61.90% increase compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - As of April 13, 2023, commercial banks have issued 41 commercial bank bonds and 36 subordinated bonds, with issuance amounts of 382.3 billion yuan and 366.75 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The issuance of subordinated bonds includes 28 tier-2 bonds and 8 perpetual bonds, with respective issuance amounts of 248.75 billion yuan and 11.8 billion yuan [2]. - Large banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Bank have larger issuance scales, while smaller banks have issued more than 20 bonds, which is crucial for their capital replenishment [2]. Group 2: Capital Supplement Demand - There is a strong demand for capital replenishment among commercial banks in the second quarter of 2023, driven by expectations of monetary easing and a shift in credit resources towards small and micro enterprises, green projects, and agriculture [3]. - Perpetual bonds are expected to play a significant role in capital replenishment, gradually replacing preferred shares as an important tool for banks to supplement other tier-1 capital [3]. - Several listed banks have announced bond issuance plans, including Nanjing Bank planning to issue up to 20 billion yuan of perpetual capital bonds and Chengdu Bank planning to issue up to 7 billion yuan of qualified tier-2 capital instruments [3].