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尚未全面降久期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 11:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 17, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.13 years and 2.63 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.59 years, 3.72 years, and 4.05 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 2.13 years, 3.22 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical percentiles [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index has been falling. This week, it decreased slightly compared to last week and is currently at the 12.20% level since March 2021 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term hovered around 2.13 years. The duration of Sichuan provincial urban investment bonds extended to 5.36 years, while the trading duration of Guangdong district - county - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.50 years. The historical percentiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Sichuan provincial, Jiangsu district - county - level, Chongqing district - county - level, and Fujian district - county - level have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Henan prefecture - level city urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term has slightly extended compared to last week, generally around 2.63 years. The trading duration of the pharmaceutical and biological industry shortened to 1.05 years, while that of the building materials industry extended to 2.49 years. The trading duration of the food materials industry is at a relatively low historical percentile, and industries such as public utilities and building materials are at historical percentiles above 90% [3][20]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 4.05 years, at the 99.5% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.59 years, at the 99.1% historical percentile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.72 years, at the 66.3% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][22]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical percentiles of 65.3%, 48%, 31%, and 67.6% respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds has slightly extended compared to last week, while the durations of the others have slightly shortened [3][25]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - Information in this part is mainly included in the "All - Variety Term Overview" above, with detailed data and analysis of different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank bonds, and other financial bonds. For example, specific data on the durations and historical percentiles of bonds in different regions and industries are provided [3][15][20].
信用债周度观察(20250811-20250815):信用债发行环比减少,总成交量环比下降-20250816
EBSCN· 2025-08-16 14:03
Report Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the week from August 11 to August 15, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the total trading volume also declined month - on - month. The credit spreads showed different trends in various industries, regions, and enterprise types [1][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - A total of 409 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 335.034 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50%. Among them, 185 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 167.545 billion yuan (down 4.78% month - on - month, accounting for 50.01%); 188 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 107.989 billion yuan (down 9.87% month - on - month, accounting for 32.23%); 36 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 59.5 billion yuan (down 58.16% month - on - month, accounting for 17.76%) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.92 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.55 years, urban investment bonds was 3.36 years, and financial bonds was 2.31 years [1][14]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.13%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.08%, urban investment bonds was 2.24%, and financial bonds was 1.88% [2][20]. 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Nine credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [3][24]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads increased this week. Different industries, enterprise types, and regions showed different trends in credit spread changes. For example, among the Shenwan primary industries, the largest increase in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in the public utilities sector (up 4.8BP), and the largest decrease was in the non - ferrous metals sector (down 0.9BP) [3][26]. 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 110.8575 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.25%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes [4][29]. 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report lists the top 20 actively traded urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week, including information such as security codes, security names, trading volumes, yields, and issuers [33][36].
【固收】信用债发行环比增加,各行业信用利差整体上行——信用债周度观察(20250721-20250725)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-28 01:28
Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 21 to July 25, 2025, a total of 414 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 592.83 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 47.80% [3] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 202 issues with a scale of 219.28 billion, a week-on-week increase of 24.66%, making up 36.99% of the total issuance [3] - City investment bonds totaled 166 issues with a scale of 109.63 billion, a week-on-week increase of 2.90%, representing 18.49% of the total [3] - Financial bonds had 46 issues with a scale of 263.92 billion, a week-on-week increase of 122.44%, accounting for 44.52% of the total [3] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.35 years, with industrial bonds at 3.38 years, city investment bonds at 3.75 years, and financial bonds at 1.66 years [3] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.08%, with industrial bonds at 2.01%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [3] - A total of 23 credit bonds were canceled during the week [3] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads increased across industries, with the largest increase in AAA-rated industries being in pharmaceuticals, which rose by 7.6 basis points, while electronics saw a decrease of 1.5 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated industries, real estate experienced the largest increase in credit spreads by 8.9 basis points, while building materials decreased by 15.3 basis points [4] - In the AA-rated category, electronics had the largest increase in credit spreads by 7.5 basis points, while building materials decreased by 0.5 basis points [4] - In terms of city investment bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Shaanxi, which rose by 5.3 basis points, while Yunnan saw a decrease of 1.2 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated credit spreads, Fujian had the largest increase of 6.4 basis points, while Qinghai decreased by 1.2 basis points [4] - The largest increase in AA-rated credit spreads was in Hubei, which rose by 6.5 basis points, while Sichuan decreased by 2 basis points [4] Group 3: Trading Volume - The top three credit bonds by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [5] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 573.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 35.93%, accounting for 37.04% of the total trading volume [5] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 368.42 billion, a week-on-week increase of 1.83%, representing 23.81% of the total [5] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 327.90 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 4.54%, making up 21.19% of the total [5]
【固收】信用债发行环比减少,各行业信用利差涨跌互现——信用债周度观察(20250714-20250718)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-20 14:03
Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 401.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% week-on-week [2] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues with a scale of 175.91 billion yuan, down 2.02%, representing 43.86% of the total issuance [2] - City investment bonds had 178 issues with a scale of 106.535 billion yuan, an increase of 16.25%, making up 26.56% of the total [2] - Financial bonds totaled 35 issues with a scale of 118.65 billion yuan, down 40.42%, accounting for 29.58% of the total [2] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.17 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.39 years, city investment bonds 4.07 years, and financial bonds 2.21 years [2] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.07%, with industrial bonds at 1.93%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [2] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads varied by industry, with the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, up 6.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in the electronics sector, down 2.8 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated spreads, the steel industry saw the largest increase of 8 basis points, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector had the largest decrease of 5 basis points [5] - In the city investment bond sector, the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads was in Jilin, up 1.8 basis points, while Shanxi saw the largest decrease, down 3.4 basis points [5] - The trading volume for credit bonds ranked as follows: commercial bank bonds at 433.848 billion yuan (up 2.87%), company bonds at 356.402 billion yuan (down 1.49%), and medium-term notes at 324.001 billion yuan (down 5.68%) [5]
品种久期跟踪:品种久期的进与退
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of May 16, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at lower historical quantiles and insurance company bonds and leasing company bonds at higher historical quantiles [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it decreased but slightly increased this week compared to last week, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.21 years. The durations of Sichuan provincial and Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds significantly shortened. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in certain regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level counties, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Beijing district - level counties, Guangdong district - level counties, Sichuan province, Henan province, Jiangxi prefecture - level cities, Anhui province, Anhui prefecture - level cities, Shaanxi province, Guangxi province, and Yunnan province exceeded 90%. The duration of Jiangsu district - level county urban investment bonds approached the highest level since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 2.72 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry significantly shortened to 1.30 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.17 years. The trading durations of industries such as food and beverage were at lower historical quantiles, while those of public utilities, transportation, steel, and non - ferrous metals were at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 3.52 years this week, at the 63.8% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.09 years, at the 91.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 2.21 years, at the 78.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 78.4%, 58.7%, 49.5%, and 93.5% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, and leasing company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][26].