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【固收】信用债发行量环比增加,各行业信用利差涨跌互现——信用债周度观察(20251110-20251114)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-16 00:04
Primary Market - In the week from November 10 to November 14, 2025, a total of 330 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 455.379 billion yuan, an increase of 25.31% week-on-week [4] - The issuance scale of industrial bonds was 169.680 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.09%, accounting for 37.26% of the total credit bond issuance [4] - City investment bonds issued totaled 81.729 billion yuan, down 19.25%, representing 17.95% of the total [4] - Financial bonds saw an issuance of 203.970 billion yuan, an increase of 139.20%, making up 44.79% of the total [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.75 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.25 years, city investment bonds 3.51 years, and financial bonds 2.13 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.12%, with industrial bonds at 2.06%, city investment bonds at 2.26%, and financial bonds at 1.94% [4] - Two credit bonds were canceled during the week [4] Secondary Market - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, which rose by 6.5 basis points, while the largest decrease was in steel, down by 3.5 basis points [5] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in electronics, up by 1.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in automobiles, down by 16.6 basis points [5] - The largest increase in AA-rated industries was in transportation, up by 0.9 basis points, while the largest decrease was in mining, down by 3.9 basis points [5] - For city investment bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Zhejiang, up by 3 basis points, and the largest decrease was in Yunnan, down by 10.2 basis points [5] - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1219.783 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.53% week-on-week [6] - The top three types of credit bonds by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [6] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 375.608 billion yuan, an increase of 3.93%, accounting for 30.79% of the total [6] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 414.081 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.86%, representing 33.95% of the total [6] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 243.078 billion yuan, down by 16.01%, accounting for 19.93% of the total [6]
下半年以来23家上市银行共获748家机构调研
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-13 23:12
Core Insights - In the second half of this year, institutions have actively researched and tracked the operational status of listed banks, with 748 institutions conducting 133 investigations into 23 listed banks as of November 13 [1][2] - The focus of these investigations has been primarily on city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, with key areas of interest including net interest margin trends, non-interest income trends, and capital replenishment [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Research - The majority of institutions conducting research on listed banks are fund companies and securities firms, accounting for 53% of the total [2] - Jiangsu Bank emerged as the most popular among institutions, receiving 83 investigations, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank with 76 and 75 investigations respectively [2] - Ruifeng Bank had the highest number of total investigations at 22 [2] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - Net interest margin has been a focal point for institutions, with some listed banks showing signs of stabilization or slight recovery compared to the previous year [2] - Several banks reported successful measures to reduce funding costs, such as exiting high-cost deposits and enhancing the absorption of low-cost current deposits [3] - Xiamen Bank reported a 4 basis point increase in net interest margin to 1.08% in the first half of the year, with continued stabilization in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Debt Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a volatile trend this year, impacting the investment income of some listed banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks [4] - Banks are focusing on their investment strategies in the bond market, with a cautious approach to market trends and adjustments in trading positions [4] - Shanghai Bank plans to enhance its market analysis capabilities and maintain flexibility in its investment strategies to mitigate risks from market interest rate fluctuations [4] Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Capital Replenishment - Many banks noted changes in non-interest income, particularly in net income from fees and commissions, which have been affected by regulatory requirements on self-managed wealth management [6] - Banks are exploring various methods for capital replenishment, combining internal capital accumulation with external sources to strengthen their capital base [6]
下半年以来23家上市银行共获748家机构调研 净息差走势、非息收入趋势、资本补充等被重点关注
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-13 16:49
Core Insights - Institutions are actively researching the operational status of listed banks in the second half of the year, with 748 institutions conducting 133 investigations into 23 listed banks, primarily focusing on city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Research - The majority of institutions conducting research are fund companies and securities firms, accounting for 53% of the total [2] - Jiangsu Bank is the most popular among institutions, receiving 83 investigations, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank with 76 and 75 investigations respectively [2] - Ruifeng Bank leads in total investigation counts with 22 [2] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - Net interest margin (NIM) has stabilized for some listed banks, with a slight year-on-year recovery noted [2] - Several banks have reported success in reducing funding costs, which alleviates downward pressure on NIM by exiting high-cost deposits and enhancing low-cost deposit absorption [2][3] - Xiamen Bank reported a 4 basis point increase in NIM to 1.08% in the first half of the year, with continued stabilization in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Debt Market Analysis - The bond market has shown volatility this year, impacting investment income for some banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks [4] - Banks are adjusting their investment strategies in response to market conditions, with a focus on defensive strategies and selective trading opportunities [4] - Shanghai Bank aims to enhance market analysis and maintain flexibility in its investment strategies while managing interest rate risks [4] Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Capital Supplementation - Non-interest income, particularly from fees and commissions, has been affected by regulatory requirements on self-managed wealth management products [5] - Banks are exploring ways to supplement capital through internal accumulation and external sources to strengthen their capital base [5] - Qingdao Bank focuses on standardized fixed-income securities and emphasizes duration management to ensure steady growth in bond investment income [5]
久期布局摇摆期:品种久期跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-09 12:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the durations of general credit bonds and secondary bonds have returned to high levels. The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at over 90% of their historical highs since 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are at different historical levels, and the durations of other financial bonds have generally shortened, with lease company bonds at a relatively high historical percentile [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Full - Variety Maturity Overview - As of November 7, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.20 years and 2.82 years respectively, at over 90% of their historical highs since 2021 [2][9]. - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.45 years, 3.81 years, and 2.16 years respectively. The general commercial financial bonds are at a relatively low historical level [2][9]. - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and lease company bonds are 1.74 years, 2.38 years, 3.31 years, and 1.32 years respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened, and lease company bonds are at a relatively high historical percentile [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index has slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024 and then declining, it has rebounded this week and is currently at the 35.6% level since March 2021 [11]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovers around 2.32 years. The duration of Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds has extended to 3.25 years, while the trading duration of Shanghai district - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.47 years [3][15]. - The historical percentiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Chongqing district - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Anhui prefecture - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Chongqing district - level and Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][15]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds has slightly shortened compared to last week and is generally around 2.27 years. The trading durations of the non - ferrous metals and public utilities industries have extended to 2.48 years and 3.29 years respectively [3][21]. - The trading duration of the real estate industry is at a relatively low historical percentile, while the building materials and commercial retail industries are at relatively high historical percentiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has extended to 2.16 years, at the 67.6% historical percentile, lower than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.45 years, at the 97.9% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - The duration of bank perpetual bonds has shortened to 3.81 years, at the 69.7% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > lease company bonds, at the 70%, 63.9%, 63.9%, and 78% historical percentiles respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds has significantly extended compared to last week [3][26].
信用策略备忘录:追久期的窗口?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-31 15:35
Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The urban investment bond duration strategy balances returns and defensiveness well, with cumulative excess returns for perpetual bonds, secondary bonds, and urban investment barbell combinations reaching 18.5bp, 14.7bp, and 5.1bp respectively [2][12] - Most medium to long-term strategies have shown excess returns in the past month, indicating potential profit from recent upward trends, although the likelihood of volatility corrections is higher compared to other strategies [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the weighted average transaction durations for urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.98 years and 2.42 years, respectively, returning to over 80% of the high historical percentile since 2021 [3][15] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.01 years, 3.46 years, and 1.83 years, with secondary capital bonds showing a relatively high duration percentile [3][15] Group 3: Yield Heatmap - As of October 27, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties [4][17] - In the non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds, yields have generally declined, with the average drop exceeding 6bp for 2-5 year state-owned enterprise private perpetual bonds [4][18] Group 4: Science and Technology Innovation Bonds - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds reached a year-to-date high, with a total issuance scale of 699.4 billion yuan from October 20 to October 24, 2025, including 421.4 billion yuan from the exchange [5][20] - The subscription enthusiasm for new bonds has increased, with several science and technology bonds being oversubscribed by more than three times, indicating strong institutional demand for quality science and technology bonds [5][20] Group 5: Local Government Bonds - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, local government bonds issued totaled 247.2 billion yuan, including 112.4 billion yuan of new special bonds and 65.1 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [6][23] - The main investment areas for special bond funds are "special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project income," with 73 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds issued in October, accounting for 9.3% of the month's local bond issuance [6][23]
险企执行新会计准则倒计时,怎么看?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-23 05:59
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Listed insurance companies have implemented new accounting standards (IFRS 17 and IFRS 9) since 2023, while non - listed ones will implement them in 2026. It is estimated that after the remaining insurance companies implement the new standards in 2026, the re - classification scale of financial assets of affected insurance companies may account for about 20% [3][62]. - After the implementation of the new standards, more insurance assets may be classified into the FVTPL category, increasing the profit volatility of insurance companies. Insurance companies are more cautious about bank capital bonds and increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds. The proportion of insurance funds invested in bonds is rising [3][5][63]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. New Accounting Standards Gradually Implemented - IFRS 9 adjusts the classification of financial assets from "four - category" to "three - category": FVTPL, FVOCI, and AC. More assets may be classified into FVTPL, making insurance company profits more volatile. Insurance companies have an incentive to allocate more assets to AC or FVOCI [9][10]. - IFRS 17 changes the discount rate for traditional insurance reserves. Insurance companies can use the OCI option to reduce profit fluctuations, which may lead to significant differences in net profit under the old and new standards [12]. - From the operating data of insurance companies that have implemented the new standards in advance, there is an increase in net profit and a decrease in net assets [16]. - Among bond - issuing insurance companies, the financial investment of those that have implemented the new standards accounted for 74.4% of the total as of the end of 2024. It is estimated that the proportion of financial asset re - classification of the remaining insurance companies in 2026 may be about 20% [3][62]. 2. Changes in Insurance Institution Behavior 2.1 Insurance Asset Allocation Observation - As of the end of Q2 2025, the balance of insurance funds in use was 36.23 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies accounting for 90% [23]. - The proportion of bonds in the asset allocation of life and property insurance is increasing. As of the end of Q2 2025, the bond proportion of life insurance increased from 41% to 52%, with a balance of 16.9 trillion yuan; that of property insurance increased from 21% to 40%, with a balance of 0.95 trillion yuan [25]. - The investment proportion of life and property insurance in stocks is relatively stable, but the growth rate has accelerated since Q1 last year. In Q2 this year, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stock investment were 47.9% and 42.8% respectively [31]. 2.2 Insurance Secondary Market Observation 2.2.1 Bank - to - Bank - As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody scale of insurance institutions in CCDC and SHCHE was 5033.311 billion yuan. Interest - rate bonds accounted for 77.9%, with local bonds accounting for 49.3% [34]. - Insurance has been increasing its allocation of local bonds. As of the end of August this year, the net increase in local bond custody was 3776 billion yuan, approaching last year's level. Insurance has been reducing its holdings of commercial bank bonds since March last year [39][58]. 2.2.2 Exchange - As of the end of September, the scale of corporate bonds held by insurance in SSE and SZSE was 931.8 billion yuan and 181.6 billion yuan respectively. After Q2 this year, the allocation of credit bonds by insurance has increased [52]. 3. Understanding the Impact of the New Standards - Insurance institutions will further increase their demand for ultra - long bonds due to stable premium income growth, the "Second - Generation Solvency" regulations guiding the passive allocation of fixed - income assets, and increased liability - side volatility under the new insurance contract standards [55]. - Under the new financial tool accounting standards, insurance will be more cautious about bank secondary and perpetual bonds that do not pass SPPI and are included in FVTPL [58]. 4. Summary - In 2026, after the remaining insurance companies implement the new accounting standards, the re - classification scale of financial assets of affected insurance companies may account for about 20% [3][62]. - After the implementation of the new standards, insurance company profits may become more volatile. Insurance will be more cautious about bank capital bonds and increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds. The proportion of bonds in insurance asset allocation is rising [5][63].
品种久期跟踪:防御久期有多短?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 13:58
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The mainstream varieties of credit bonds have seen a continuous shortening in duration. The ticket - coupon duration congestion index has rebounded, and different types of bonds show various duration changes and historical quantile positions [2][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - Variety Term Overview - As of October 10, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.65 years and 1.88 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.79 years, 3.36 years, and 1.69 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.37 years, 1.79 years, 3.22 years, and 1.11 years respectively. The durations of securities sub - bonds and leasing company bonds shortened, and securities company bonds were at a relatively low historical quantile [2][9]. - The ticket - coupon duration congestion index rebounded this week compared to last week and is currently at 41.7% of the level since March 2021 [11]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average trading term hovers around 1.65 years. The duration of urban investment bonds in Fujian prefecture - level cities has extended to 2.39 years, while that of Shanxi provincial - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 0.06 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of Hunan provincial - level and Jiangxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hunan provincial - level urban investment bonds is approaching the highest since 2021 [3][15]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The weighted average trading term has slightly shortened compared to last week, generally around 1.55 years. The trading duration of the non - ferrous metals industry has extended to 1.97 years, and that of the food and beverage industry has shortened to 0.50 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while the public utilities and non - ferrous metals industries are at relatively high historical quantiles [3][21]. - **Commercial Bank Bonds**: The duration of general commercial financial bonds has shortened to 1.69 years, at the 10.9% historical quantile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 3.79 years, at the 67% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds has shortened to 3.36 years, at the 50.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - **Other Financial Bonds**: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 66%, 19.4%, 9.7%, and 51.4% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds have slightly shortened compared to last week [3][26].
信用债发行量环比增长,各行业信用利差整体上行:信用债周度观察(20250922-20250926)-20250927
EBSCN· 2025-09-27 06:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the overall credit spreads of various industries rose [1] - The total trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes ranking among the top three in trading volume [4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - 501 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 584.503 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% [1][11] - Industrial bonds: 200 were issued, with an issuance scale of 264.684 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 30.71%, accounting for 45.28% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - Urban investment bonds: 253 were issued, with an issuance scale of 159.939 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.21%, accounting for 27.36% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - Financial bonds: 48 were issued, with an issuance scale of 159.880 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 32.29%, accounting for 27.35% of the total issuance scale of credit bonds this week [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.71 years, with industrial bonds at 2.22 years, urban investment bonds at 3.31 years, and financial bonds at 1.88 years [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.33%, with industrial bonds at 2.19%, urban investment bonds at 2.53%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - 13 credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [22] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads rose this week. Among Shenwan primary industries, the largest increase in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in machinery and equipment (9BP), and the largest decrease was in media (3.1BP); the largest increase in AA + - rated industry credit spreads was in steel (44.2BP), and the largest decrease was in chemicals (1BP); the largest increase in AA - rated industry credit spreads was in electronics (7.9BP), and the largest decrease was in machinery and equipment (3.2BP) [3][24] - The credit spreads of coal and steel both increased. The credit spreads of AAA - and AA + - rated coal increased by 6.2BP and 6.3BP respectively; the credit spreads of AAA - and AA + - rated steel increased by 4.9BP and 44.2BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment at all levels increased. The credit spreads of three - level urban investment bonds increased by 7.2BP, 6.7BP, and 7.5BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level non - urban investment bonds increased by 6.4BP, 6.1BP, and 5.9BP respectively [24] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises both increased. The credit spreads of three - level central state - owned enterprises increased by 5.6BP, 4.4BP, and 7.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level local state - owned enterprises increased by 6BP, 6.1BP, and 6.5BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level private enterprises increased by 5.3BP, 5.7BP, and 3.8BP respectively [26] - The credit spreads of regional urban investment bonds showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads were Shaanxi, Liaoning, and Jilin; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Sichuan. In terms of month - on - month changes, the largest increase in AAA - rated credit spreads was in Jilin (15.6BP); the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spreads was in Hebei (10.2BP), and the largest decrease was in Ningxia (2.6BP); the largest increase in AA - rated credit spreads was in Sichuan (11.8BP), and the largest decrease was in Shaanxi (0.1BP) [27] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.617515 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 10.61%. The top three in trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 487.807 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%, accounting for 30.16% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 496.120 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 14.83%, accounting for 30.67% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 32.3965 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.08%, accounting for 20.03% of the total trading volume of credit bonds this week [4][28] 2.3 This Week's Actively Traded Bonds - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]
广义基金减持存单信用,交易盘情绪改善但配置力量不足
Xinda Securities· 2025-09-25 07:25
Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].
信用债周度观察(20250915-20250919):信用债发行量环比增长,各行业信用利差涨跌互现-20250920
EBSCN· 2025-09-20 12:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 15th to September 19th, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends[1]. - The total trading volume of credit bonds increased, and the trading volumes of commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes ranked top three[4]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - During September 15 - 19, 2025, 455 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 579.911 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 55.61%. Among them, 182 industrial bonds were issued, amounting to 202.499 billion yuan (up 63.71% month - on - month, accounting for 34.92% of the total); 217 urban investment bonds were issued, totaling 141.282 billion yuan (up 52.61% month - on - month, accounting for 24.36%); and 56 financial bonds were issued, reaching 236.13 billion yuan (up 50.98% month - on - month, accounting for 40.72%)[1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.94 years. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.42 years, 3.52 years, and 2.31 years respectively[1][13]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.28%. The average issuance coupon rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.13%, 2.48%, and 1.97% respectively[2][18]. 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds were cancelled for issuance during the week, including "25 Xianggaosu CP003", "25 Datong D1", "25 Suzhou Energy MTN002", and "25 Tongzhouwan PPN003"[3][23]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - By industry, among Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest increase in credit spread was in the electronics industry (up 6.7BP), and the largest decrease was in the textile and apparel industry (down 6.8BP); for AA + - rated industries, the largest increase was in the electronics industry (up 1.2BP), and the largest decrease was in the mining industry (down 7BP); for AA - rated industries, the largest increase was in the real estate industry (up 14.3BP), and the largest decrease was in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry (down 4.3BP)[3][25]. - By region for urban investment bonds, for AAA - rated bonds, the largest increase in credit spread was in Shanghai (up 3.3BP), and the largest decrease was in Shaanxi (down 10.2BP); for AA + - rated bonds, the largest increase was in Yunnan (up 4.7BP), and the largest decrease was in Hubei (down 5.9BP); for AA - rated bonds, the largest increase was in Fujian (up 6.5BP), and the largest decrease was in Jiangxi (down 5.8BP)[3][27]. - The credit spreads of coal and steel both showed mixed trends. The credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated coal decreased by 1.2BP and 5.3BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated steel decreased by 3.3BP and increased by 0.5BP respectively[25]. - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds at all levels decreased. The credit spreads of three - level urban investment bonds decreased by 0.5BP, 3.1BP, and 1.8BP respectively, and the credit spreads of three - level non - urban investment bonds decreased by 1.5BP, 2.3BP, and 0.4BP respectively[25]. - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises both showed mixed trends. The credit spreads of three - level central state - owned enterprises decreased by 1BP, 5.6BP, and increased by 0.2BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level local state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.4BP, 1.8BP, and 2.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of three - level private enterprises decreased by 2BP, 2.3BP, and increased by 1BP respectively[26]. 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.462306 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 21.90%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. The trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 479.739 billion yuan (up 26.26% month - on - month, accounting for 32.81% of the total trading volume); the trading volume of corporate bonds was 432.035 billion yuan (up 29.94% month - on - month, accounting for 29.54%); the trading volume of medium - term notes was 311.265 billion yuan (up 14.08% month - on - month, accounting for 21.29%)[4][28]. 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - According to DM client data, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume during the week are provided for investors' reference, including details such as bond codes, names, trading volumes, yields, and issuers[30][31][33].