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【固收】信用债发行量环比上升,各行业信用利差涨跌互现——信用债周度观察(20251222-20251226)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2025-12-28 00:20
Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, a total of 267 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 427.70 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 15.42% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 117 issues with a scale of 219.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 34.26%, making up 51.26% of the total issuance [4] - City investment bonds totaled 110 issues with a scale of 71.36 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 18.87%, representing 16.69% of the total issuance [4] - Financial bonds had 40 issues with a scale of 137.08 billion, a week-on-week increase of 14.92%, accounting for 32.05% of the total issuance [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.74 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.36 years, city investment bonds 3.25 years, and financial bonds 2.35 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.26%, with industrial bonds at 2.12%, city investment bonds at 2.41%, and financial bonds at 2.23% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1782.75 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 28.47% [7] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes, with commercial bank bonds at 630.89 billion (up 38.88%), corporate bonds at 521.31 billion (up 15.93%), and medium-term notes at 347.64 billion (up 40.63%) [7] - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in pharmaceuticals, up 5.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in real estate, down 1.3 basis points [6] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in household appliances, up 6.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in textiles and apparel, down 9.8 basis points [6] - The AAA-rated credit spread increased the most in Gansu, up 8.7 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Jilin, down 2.9 basis points [6]
——2025年11月债券托管数据点评:交易盘减持国债带来调整非银杠杆结构分化
Huafu Securities· 2025-12-23 06:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the overall bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long end, and the decline in the willingness of trading desks to increase interest - rate bonds may be the core factor for the market adjustment. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds in November may be more affected by the sentiment of trading desks, with relatively limited relation to issues such as bank book interest - rate risks. [3][12] - The bond leverage ratio decreased slightly in November, with the securities company's leverage ratio rising but the product account leverage ratio falling. [4][53] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Interest - rate Bond Custody Increased Significantly but Certificates of Deposit Had Net Repayment, and the Bond Custody Scale Rose Slightly - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 147.98 billion yuan month - on - month, an increase of 16.75 billion yuan compared with October. Interest - rate bond custody increments increased by nearly one trillion yuan compared with the previous month, and the custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased significantly. Due to the increase in the issuance scale of medium - term notes, the credit - bond custody increment also increased, and the custody scale of commercial bank bonds turned from a decline to an increase. However, the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from an increase of 721.4 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 385.7 billion yuan, significantly dragging down the overall bond custody scale. [3][10] 3.2 The Decline in the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Interest - rate Bonds May Be the Core Factor for the Market Adjustment in November 3.2.1 Generalized Funds - In November, the bond custody scale of generalized funds increased by 22.16 billion yuan month - on - month, a decrease of 82.29 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They mainly changed from increasing 77.12 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit last month to reducing 950 million yuan. In addition, they increased their holdings of financial bonds, local bonds, and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but also increased their reduction of commercial bank bonds, policy - financial bonds, and enterprise bonds, and changed to reducing treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. [18] 3.2.2 Securities Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of securities companies changed from an increase of 13.48 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 14.21 billion yuan, mainly due to the reduction of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream, a decrease in the increase of local bonds, and an increase in the reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds. However, they increased their holdings of medium - term notes and credit - asset - backed securities and increased their holdings of short - term commercial paper. [26] 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of insurance companies changed from a decrease of 450 million yuan last month to an increase of 2.85 billion yuan. They slightly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased their holdings of financial bonds and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but the increase in local bonds decreased, and the reduction of commercial bank bonds increased. [30] 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In November, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 11.67 billion yuan month - on - month, and the decline was 6.26 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They mainly changed to reducing treasury bonds, increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit, but slightly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds. [32] 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In November, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 57.46 billion yuan month - on - month, and the increase was 21.9 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds, changed to increasing policy - financial bonds, but the increase in local bonds decreased and changed to reducing inter - bank certificates of deposit. The structural changes in the custody data may be due to the fact that the proportion of treasury bonds in the repurchase of reverse repurchase targets increased. [37] 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In November, the bond custody scale of commercial banks changed from a decrease of 25.14 billion yuan last month to an increase of 78.3 billion yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, increased their holdings of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and medium - term notes, but increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and changed to reducing short - term commercial paper and credit - asset - backed securities. If the impact of outright repurchase is considered, the banks' increase in holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds further increased. [44] 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In November, the bond custody scale of credit unions changed from a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan last month to an increase of 980 million yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, decreased their reduction of policy - financial bonds, but decreased their increase of inter - bank certificates of deposit. [46] 3.3 The Bond Leverage Ratio Decreased Slightly in November, with the Securities Company's Leverage Ratio Rising but the Product Account Leverage Ratio Falling - Affected by the increase in the bond custody scale and the decrease in the scale of institutional funds borrowed, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 107.2% in November, still at a relatively low level. [4][53] - Among them, the commercial bank's leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 103.3%, and the non - bank institution's leverage ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 117.0%. In non - bank institutions, the securities company's leverage ratio increased by 11.5 percentage points month - on - month to 231.4%, reaching a new high since 2020, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 113.7%, still at a relatively low level in the past three years. [4][53]
固收-30y国债定价怎么看?
2025-12-22 15:47
固收-30y 国债定价怎么看?20251222 摘要 年末商业银行债供需结构承压,地方债发行比例高企,大行指标接近上 限,保费增速下滑导致保险有效久期下降,长债审批能力受限,需关注 潜在的供需缺口风险。 基金持续卖出长债,今年净卖出超长债累计约 600 亿,基金中长期利率 债久期回到 4 月初水平,长债仓位下降和风险初步释放,但未来仍可能 波动。 明年整体供需结构面临压力,预计净融资量增加至 6.76-6.8 万亿水平。 若需求不足,高成本可能导致缩短发债期间。一季度地方政府计划发行 量仍处于历史高位。 预计明年基金对超长久期品种的需求将维持在 2023 年的水平,略弱于 2024 年,但好于 2020 上半年。保险方面,由于低利率环境下分红险 比例提高,其对超长期品种配置比例可能下降。 预计明年保险行业对偿付比例的需求将延续今年的下降趋势,对超长期 债券的需求可能减少约 2000 亿元。银行方面,若维持今年创债买入比 例,其退价份额将小幅下降约 1,000 亿元。 基金方面,今年(2025 年)超长久期策略有所调整,从中长期策略转向灵活 变化,以适应低利率环境中的交易需求。预计明年(2026 年)基金对超长 ...
信用债周度观察(20251208-20251212):信用债发行量环比上升,各行业信用利差涨跌互现-20251213
EBSCN· 2025-12-13 13:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed changes. The primary market issuance was active, and the secondary market trading volume increased significantly [1][24][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - During the week, 369 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 459.512 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 35.34%. Among them, 174 industrial bonds were issued, amounting to 186.503 billion yuan (a 62.28% month - on - month increase, accounting for 40.59%); 149 urban investment bonds were issued, totaling 88.809 billion yuan (a 7.82% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 19.33%); and 46 financial bonds were issued, reaching 184.2 billion yuan (a 43.60% month - on - month increase, accounting for 40.09%) [11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.80 years. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.36 years, 3.34 years, and 2.48 years respectively [12] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.24%. The average issuance coupon rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.19%, 2.39%, and 1.96% respectively [17] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds were cancelled for issuance during the week [22] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - In the Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest upward movement in credit spread was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (up 3.1BP), and the largest downward movement was in medicine and biology (down 4.2BP). For AA + - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in electrical equipment (up 2.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in building materials (down 12.7BP). For AA - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in machinery (up 4.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in public utilities (down 2.8BP) [3] - For urban investment bonds by region, among AAA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement in credit spread was in Yunnan (up 4.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in Guangdong (down 3.7BP). Among AA + - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Beijing (up 13BP), and the largest downward movement was in Shaanxi (down 4.8BP). Among AA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Yunnan (up 4.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in Shaanxi (down 9.8BP) [26] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1625.428 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 36.58%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 628.038 billion yuan (a 60.23% month - on - month increase, accounting for 38.64%); corporate bonds had a trading volume of 402.758 billion yuan (a 10.55% month - on - month increase, accounting for 24.78%); and medium - term notes had a trading volume of 294.033 billion yuan (a 23.12% month - on - month increase, accounting for 18.09%) [4] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference, including details such as security code, security abbreviation, trading volume, average trading yield, ChinaBond valuation yield, ChinaBond implied rating, remaining term, and issuer [30][32][33]
品种久期跟踪:高波动的久期选择
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-07 13:48
Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The duration of secondary capital bonds has been continuously rising, while the durations of other credit bonds have generally shortened. As of December 5, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.90 years and 2.27 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.31 years, 3.78 years, and 1.94 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, and secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 1.83 years, 3.33 years, and 1.19 years respectively. The duration of securities subordinated bonds has significantly shortened compared to last week, and the durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at relatively low historical levels [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index has slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index declined. This week, it increased compared to last week and is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Duration Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading duration hovered around 1.90 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthened to 5.50 years, and the trading duration of Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.22 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Henan prefecture - level cities, and Hunan province have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hunan provincial urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds shortened compared to last week and was generally around 2.27 years. The trading duration of the transportation industry lengthened to 2.02 years, and the trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.55 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a relatively low historical level, while those of the non - ferrous metals and pharmaceutical and biological industries were at relatively high historical levels [3][21]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.94 years, at the 35.9% historical quantile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.31 years, at the 95.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.78 years, at the 67.7% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical quantiles of 71.4%, 22%, 31.8%, and 61.2% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened compared to last week [3][26]. 2. Variety Microscope - Coupon duration crowding index: After reaching its peak in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index decreased and then increased slightly this week. It is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. - Regional analysis of urban investment bonds: The report provides the durations and historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in different provinces and administrative levels, such as the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthening to 5.50 years and Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortening to 1.22 years [15][20]. - Industry analysis of industrial bonds: Different industries within industrial bonds showed different duration changes. For example, the transportation industry's duration lengthened, and the food and beverage industry's duration shortened [21].
【固收】信用债发行量环比增加,各行业信用利差涨跌互现——信用债周度观察(20251110-20251114)(张旭/秦方好)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-16 00:04
Primary Market - In the week from November 10 to November 14, 2025, a total of 330 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 455.379 billion yuan, an increase of 25.31% week-on-week [4] - The issuance scale of industrial bonds was 169.680 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.09%, accounting for 37.26% of the total credit bond issuance [4] - City investment bonds issued totaled 81.729 billion yuan, down 19.25%, representing 17.95% of the total [4] - Financial bonds saw an issuance of 203.970 billion yuan, an increase of 139.20%, making up 44.79% of the total [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.75 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.25 years, city investment bonds 3.51 years, and financial bonds 2.13 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.12%, with industrial bonds at 2.06%, city investment bonds at 2.26%, and financial bonds at 1.94% [4] - Two credit bonds were canceled during the week [4] Secondary Market - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, which rose by 6.5 basis points, while the largest decrease was in steel, down by 3.5 basis points [5] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in electronics, up by 1.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in automobiles, down by 16.6 basis points [5] - The largest increase in AA-rated industries was in transportation, up by 0.9 basis points, while the largest decrease was in mining, down by 3.9 basis points [5] - For city investment bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Zhejiang, up by 3 basis points, and the largest decrease was in Yunnan, down by 10.2 basis points [5] - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1219.783 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.53% week-on-week [6] - The top three types of credit bonds by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [6] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 375.608 billion yuan, an increase of 3.93%, accounting for 30.79% of the total [6] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 414.081 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.86%, representing 33.95% of the total [6] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 243.078 billion yuan, down by 16.01%, accounting for 19.93% of the total [6]
下半年以来23家上市银行共获748家机构调研
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-13 23:12
Core Insights - In the second half of this year, institutions have actively researched and tracked the operational status of listed banks, with 748 institutions conducting 133 investigations into 23 listed banks as of November 13 [1][2] - The focus of these investigations has been primarily on city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, with key areas of interest including net interest margin trends, non-interest income trends, and capital replenishment [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Research - The majority of institutions conducting research on listed banks are fund companies and securities firms, accounting for 53% of the total [2] - Jiangsu Bank emerged as the most popular among institutions, receiving 83 investigations, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank with 76 and 75 investigations respectively [2] - Ruifeng Bank had the highest number of total investigations at 22 [2] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - Net interest margin has been a focal point for institutions, with some listed banks showing signs of stabilization or slight recovery compared to the previous year [2] - Several banks reported successful measures to reduce funding costs, such as exiting high-cost deposits and enhancing the absorption of low-cost current deposits [3] - Xiamen Bank reported a 4 basis point increase in net interest margin to 1.08% in the first half of the year, with continued stabilization in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Debt Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a volatile trend this year, impacting the investment income of some listed banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks [4] - Banks are focusing on their investment strategies in the bond market, with a cautious approach to market trends and adjustments in trading positions [4] - Shanghai Bank plans to enhance its market analysis capabilities and maintain flexibility in its investment strategies to mitigate risks from market interest rate fluctuations [4] Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Capital Replenishment - Many banks noted changes in non-interest income, particularly in net income from fees and commissions, which have been affected by regulatory requirements on self-managed wealth management [6] - Banks are exploring various methods for capital replenishment, combining internal capital accumulation with external sources to strengthen their capital base [6]
下半年以来23家上市银行共获748家机构调研 净息差走势、非息收入趋势、资本补充等被重点关注
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-11-13 16:49
Core Insights - Institutions are actively researching the operational status of listed banks in the second half of the year, with 748 institutions conducting 133 investigations into 23 listed banks, primarily focusing on city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Research - The majority of institutions conducting research are fund companies and securities firms, accounting for 53% of the total [2] - Jiangsu Bank is the most popular among institutions, receiving 83 investigations, followed by Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank with 76 and 75 investigations respectively [2] - Ruifeng Bank leads in total investigation counts with 22 [2] Group 2: Net Interest Margin Trends - Net interest margin (NIM) has stabilized for some listed banks, with a slight year-on-year recovery noted [2] - Several banks have reported success in reducing funding costs, which alleviates downward pressure on NIM by exiting high-cost deposits and enhancing low-cost deposit absorption [2][3] - Xiamen Bank reported a 4 basis point increase in NIM to 1.08% in the first half of the year, with continued stabilization in the third quarter [3] Group 3: Debt Market Analysis - The bond market has shown volatility this year, impacting investment income for some banks, particularly city and rural commercial banks [4] - Banks are adjusting their investment strategies in response to market conditions, with a focus on defensive strategies and selective trading opportunities [4] - Shanghai Bank aims to enhance market analysis and maintain flexibility in its investment strategies while managing interest rate risks [4] Group 4: Non-Interest Income and Capital Supplementation - Non-interest income, particularly from fees and commissions, has been affected by regulatory requirements on self-managed wealth management products [5] - Banks are exploring ways to supplement capital through internal accumulation and external sources to strengthen their capital base [5] - Qingdao Bank focuses on standardized fixed-income securities and emphasizes duration management to ensure steady growth in bond investment income [5]
久期布局摇摆期:品种久期跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-09 12:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the durations of general credit bonds and secondary bonds have returned to high levels. The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at over 90% of their historical highs since 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are at different historical levels, and the durations of other financial bonds have generally shortened, with lease company bonds at a relatively high historical percentile [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Full - Variety Maturity Overview - As of November 7, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.20 years and 2.82 years respectively, at over 90% of their historical highs since 2021 [2][9]. - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.45 years, 3.81 years, and 2.16 years respectively. The general commercial financial bonds are at a relatively low historical level [2][9]. - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and lease company bonds are 1.74 years, 2.38 years, 3.31 years, and 1.32 years respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened, and lease company bonds are at a relatively high historical percentile [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index has slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024 and then declining, it has rebounded this week and is currently at the 35.6% level since March 2021 [11]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovers around 2.32 years. The duration of Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds has extended to 3.25 years, while the trading duration of Shanghai district - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.47 years [3][15]. - The historical percentiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Chongqing district - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Anhui prefecture - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Chongqing district - level and Gansu provincial - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][15]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds has slightly shortened compared to last week and is generally around 2.27 years. The trading durations of the non - ferrous metals and public utilities industries have extended to 2.48 years and 3.29 years respectively [3][21]. - The trading duration of the real estate industry is at a relatively low historical percentile, while the building materials and commercial retail industries are at relatively high historical percentiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has extended to 2.16 years, at the 67.6% historical percentile, lower than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.45 years, at the 97.9% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - The duration of bank perpetual bonds has shortened to 3.81 years, at the 69.7% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > lease company bonds, at the 70%, 63.9%, 63.9%, and 78% historical percentiles respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds has significantly extended compared to last week [3][26].
信用策略备忘录:追久期的窗口?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-31 15:35
Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The urban investment bond duration strategy balances returns and defensiveness well, with cumulative excess returns for perpetual bonds, secondary bonds, and urban investment barbell combinations reaching 18.5bp, 14.7bp, and 5.1bp respectively [2][12] - Most medium to long-term strategies have shown excess returns in the past month, indicating potential profit from recent upward trends, although the likelihood of volatility corrections is higher compared to other strategies [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the weighted average transaction durations for urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.98 years and 2.42 years, respectively, returning to over 80% of the high historical percentile since 2021 [3][15] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.01 years, 3.46 years, and 1.83 years, with secondary capital bonds showing a relatively high duration percentile [3][15] Group 3: Yield Heatmap - As of October 27, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties [4][17] - In the non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds, yields have generally declined, with the average drop exceeding 6bp for 2-5 year state-owned enterprise private perpetual bonds [4][18] Group 4: Science and Technology Innovation Bonds - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds reached a year-to-date high, with a total issuance scale of 699.4 billion yuan from October 20 to October 24, 2025, including 421.4 billion yuan from the exchange [5][20] - The subscription enthusiasm for new bonds has increased, with several science and technology bonds being oversubscribed by more than three times, indicating strong institutional demand for quality science and technology bonds [5][20] Group 5: Local Government Bonds - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, local government bonds issued totaled 247.2 billion yuan, including 112.4 billion yuan of new special bonds and 65.1 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [6][23] - The main investment areas for special bond funds are "special new special bonds" and "ordinary/project income," with 73 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds issued in October, accounting for 9.3% of the month's local bond issuance [6][23]