[Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 月末票据利率反弹，大行净买入同比增量回落 ——银行资负跟踪 20260302 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-02 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 银行 沪深300 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 银行行业:银行 ...

固 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 28 日 定 收 益 重构信贷收支表：连接货币政策与银行行为 ——解构宏观流动性系列之一 固 定 收 益 近年来债券投资者对于银行债券配置行为的关注度持续提升，但债券 投资并不是银行最主要的业务类型。银行的存款与贷款分别是 M2 与社融 的主要构成部分，而后者又是货币政策的目标，央行本质上也是通过调控 流动性来影响银行的行为，进而实现其货币政策的目标。因此，研究银行 债券配置需要从中观视角连接货币政策与银行行为。而央行每月公布的信 贷收支表为相关行为提供了相对充分的信息。 深 度 考虑 M2 是货币政策的重要中介目标，因此我们的研究以银行行为如 何影响 M2 作为起点。由于银行存款与 M0 都在信贷收支表的资金来源端， 二者又是 M2 的主要组成部分。理论上如果其他因素不变，银行其他资金 来源的下降与资金运用的上升，都会带来 M2 的上升，因此我们既可以根 据信贷收支表上各类机构各类存款的此消彼长分析 M2 的变动，也可以根 据其他科目的变化来反推 M2 变动的原因。但近年来，M2 的变动常常与信 贷、债券投资等科目的变动相背离，如果反推 M2 可以发现其变动常常由 其他 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, with a focus on structural monetary policy support for high-quality economic development [15][19] - The central bank has implemented a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in various structural monetary policy tool rates, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance [15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing for future policy implementations, particularly in relation to government bond issuance peaks and the maturity schedule of high-interest bank deposits [15] Summary by Sections 1. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report notes a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in structural monetary policy tool rates, with a focus on supporting key areas through increased re-lending [15] - Future attention is directed towards December economic data and January LPR [22] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted a total of 9,515 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 9,741 billion yuan [16] - The report highlights that the funding rates remained stable, with expectations of slight increases due to tax payments and government bond net repayments [16] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The report indicates that the total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) is 19.09 trillion yuan, with an average issuance rate of 1.65% [20] - The report also notes that there were no commercial bank bond issuances during the period, with a total outstanding commercial bank bond size of 3.38 trillion yuan [20]

Core Insights - The issuance of bonds by commercial banks has significantly increased in 2023, with a total of 77 bonds issued amounting to 749.05 billion yuan, representing a 61.90% increase compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - As of April 13, 2023, commercial banks have issued 41 commercial bank bonds and 36 subordinated bonds, with issuance amounts of 382.3 billion yuan and 366.75 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The issuance of subordinated bonds includes 28 tier-2 bonds and 8 perpetual bonds, with respective issuance amounts of 248.75 billion yuan and 11.8 billion yuan [2]. - Large banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Bank have larger issuance scales, while smaller banks have issued more than 20 bonds, which is crucial for their capital replenishment [2]. Group 2: Capital Supplement Demand - There is a strong demand for capital replenishment among commercial banks in the second quarter of 2023, driven by expectations of monetary easing and a shift in credit resources towards small and micro enterprises, green projects, and agriculture [3]. - Perpetual bonds are expected to play a significant role in capital replenishment, gradually replacing preferred shares as an important tool for banks to supplement other tier-1 capital [3]. - Several listed banks have announced bond issuance plans, including Nanjing Bank planning to issue up to 20 billion yuan of perpetual capital bonds and Chengdu Bank planning to issue up to 7 billion yuan of qualified tier-2 capital instruments [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the total bond custody scale increased by 160.77 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 104.79 billion yuan compared to March, mainly due to the sharp contraction of net financing of various interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs). The custody stocks of credit bonds and commercial bank bonds turned upward month - on - month [3][6]. - In April, under the influence of the continued escalation of Sino - US trade frictions in the first half of the month, the bond market strengthened significantly. After the middle of the month, as the trade war tension eased, the bond market returned to a volatile state. Overall, the yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend. Institutional behavior still featured strong demand from trading desks and weak demand from allocation desks, but there were differences compared to March [3][8]. - In April, the repurchase balance continued to rise, and the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 107.1% month - on - month, but it was still significantly lower than the level before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while that of non - bank institutions increased but remained at a historically low level [3][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1同业存单与利率债净融资明显下滑 4 月债券托管增量大幅收缩 - In April, the net financing of NCDs and interest - rate bonds declined significantly, leading to a sharp contraction in the bond custody increment. The custody increments of various interest - rate bonds and NCDs decreased month - on - month. The custody stocks of credit bonds and commercial bank bonds turned upward month - on - month [6]. - Specifically, for interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds decreased to 26.6 billion yuan, local government bonds to 70.69 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds to 1.32 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the custody increment of medium - term notes (MTNs) increased to 11 billion yuan, and short - term commercial papers (CPs) increased from a decrease of 2.78 billion yuan in March to an increase of 3.36 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and private placement notes (PPNs) continued to decline. The custody increment of NCDs decreased significantly to 37.79 billion yuan, while that of commercial bank bonds turned from a decrease of 0.53 billion yuan to an increase of 18.89 billion yuan [6]. 3.2 4 月交易盘继续增持利率债 保险公司减持金融债券 - In April, influenced by the significant decline in NCD rates, the allocation demand for NCDs from broad - based funds, securities companies, and other institutions decreased, while the trading desks' willingness to increase holdings of interest - rate bonds continued to strengthen. The insurance institutions' willingness to increase holdings weakened, especially the significant increase in the reduction of holdings of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, possibly due to some institutions realizing floating profits in anticipation of subsequent accounting standard adjustments [3][8]. - **Broad - based funds**: The custody increment decreased significantly to 115.56 billion yuan, mainly due to the sharp decline in the increase of NCD holdings. The increase in holdings of local government bonds, policy - bank bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, treasury bonds, and CPs increased. The reduction of holdings of commercial bank bonds decreased [14]. - **Securities companies**: The bond custody increment increased slightly to 11.24 billion yuan, remaining at a historically high level. They turned to reduce holdings of NCDs and MTNs, but the increase in holdings of treasury bonds reached a record high, and the increase in holdings of policy - bank bonds and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House also rose [20]. - **Insurance companies**: The bond custody increment decreased significantly to 0.99 billion yuan. They turned to reduce holdings of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, treasury bonds, NCDs, and policy - bank bonds, and the increase in holdings of local government bonds decreased [23]. - **Overseas institutions**: The bond custody increment decreased to 9.54 billion yuan. The increase in holdings of NCDs dropped significantly from a historical high, but they turned to increase holdings of policy - bank bonds and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, and the increase in holdings of treasury bonds increased slightly [28]. - **Other institutions**: The bond custody volume decreased by 74.29 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a historical high. This was mainly affected by the central bank's shift from a net investment of 10 billion yuan in repurchase in March to a net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan in April. They turned to reduce holdings of local government bonds and increased the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds, but turned to increase holdings of NCDs and MTNs [31]. - **Commercial banks**: The bond custody increment increased to 77.06 billion yuan, affected by the return of some repurchase underlying assets to commercial banks after the net withdrawal of repurchase in April. If the impact of repurchase is excluded, the scale of bond - buying decreased. The reduction of holdings of policy - bank bonds and NCDs increased, and the increase in holdings of treasury bonds decreased [35]. - **Credit unions**: The bond custody volume turned from a decrease of 1.9 billion yuan in March to an increase of 0.05 billion yuan in April, mainly due to the shift to increase holdings of NCDs, but they turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [39]. 3.3 4 月非银杠杆率继续回升 但仍处于历史低位附近 - In April, the repurchase balance continued to rise, and the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 107.1% month - on - month, still significantly lower than the level before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.1%, reaching a historically second - lowest level. The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 0.9 percentage points to 116.8%, remaining near the low point since 2022 [43]. - Among non - bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased significantly by 13.4 percentage points to 214.1%, returning to a neutral level. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.6 percentage points to 113.4%, remaining near a recent low. In broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of money market funds and non - money products of fund companies increased significantly, but their absolute values were still low. The repurchase balances of insurance companies and other products increased, approaching the historical high in December last year, while that of wealth management products slightly declined, remaining near a historical low [43].