1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international rapeseed futures market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic rapeseed - related market is influenced by supply, demand, and trade policies. For rapeseed meal, the reduction in near - month rapeseed arrivals and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand support the market, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. For rapeseed oil, the low - level oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, while weak terminal consumption restricts short - term prices. The market is also affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9770 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2533 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 618.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5177 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 289 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 255147 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 386706 lots, with a decrease of 7640 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5394 lots, down 4377 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 5229 lots, down 7582 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 6857 sheets, an increase of 387 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 10383 sheets, a decrease of 960 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9930 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9995 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7734.17 yuan/ton, down 102.53 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 97 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [2] - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 17.6 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, an increase of 4 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, an increase of 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points [2] - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 839 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 31.51 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.55 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.3 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.03 tons, an increase of 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 2.74 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, an increase of 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.34%, down 0.89 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.35%, down 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.75%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.73%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.1%, down 3.99 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.98%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.35%, down 1.64 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.12%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - On September 9th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures, as the rapeseed oil inventory report did not change the supply - demand expectation. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed 7.60 Canadian dollars lower, and the January contract closed 6.60 Canadian dollars lower [2] - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the excellent - good rate is relatively high, resulting in a good crop yield outlook and supply - side pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - In the international market, the reduction in planting area supports the US soybean price, but the market is uncertain due to the divergence in private institutions' predictions of the USDA report [2] - In the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed by China may affect its exports. The Canadian government is considering relaxing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to avoid additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed [2] - In the US, senators are trying to prevent the Trump administration from adjusting renewable fuel obligation policies, which has led to a sharp decline in US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market [2] - In the domestic market, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is relatively loose. However, the low operating rate of oil mills and the shortage of near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market has near - term supply pressure reduction due to less near - month rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal aquaculture demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues, with a bullish bias and high volatility [2]. - The rapeseed oil market faces short - term consumption off - season and ample supply, but low oil mill operation rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market shows a narrow - range oscillation and suggests a bullish approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9891 yuan/ton (up 1), rapeseed meal at 2547 yuan/ton (up 4), ICE rapeseed at 665 CAD/ton (up 3.2), and domestic rapeseed at 4843 yuan/ton (down 29) [2]. - Spreads and positions: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 174 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was 74 yuan/ton (unchanged). Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 291283 hands (down 5), rapeseed meal were 422516 hands (up 1488). Rapeseed oil net long positions of top 20 were 6365 hands (down 98), rapeseed meal were - 4882 hands (up 3873) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 (unchanged), rapeseed meal were 8066 (down 187) [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9950 yuan/ton (up 50), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2580 yuan/ton (up 40), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), imported rapeseed cost was 8346.97 yuan/ton (up 66.31) [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 3.84 (up 0.05), rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 60 yuan/ton (down 49), rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 33 yuan/ton (up 36), rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1270 yuan/ton (up 20), rapeseed - palm oil spread was 410 yuan/ton (up 130), soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 480 yuan/ton (down 30) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), domestic rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). Rapeseed imports were 17.6 million tons (down 0.85 million tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 million tons (up 4 million tons), rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 million tons (up 7.56 million tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory at oil mills was 15 million tons (unchanged), imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 12.79% (up 0.85%), imported rapeseed crushing profit was 613 yuan/ton (down 18) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons (down 0.55 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons (up 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons (up 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons (up 0.29 million tons), rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons (up 0.52 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: Feed production was 2937.7 million tons (up 175.6 million tons), edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 million tons (up 41.8 million tons), and catering revenue was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: Rapeseed meal call option implied volatility was 20.89% (up 0.18%), put option implied volatility was 0.13% (up 0.07%), 60 - day historical volatility was 20.89% (up 0.11%), 20 - day historical volatility was 22.11% (up 0.07%). Rapeseed oil call option implied volatility was 14.39% (up 0.29%), put option implied volatility was 0.49% (up 0.3%), 60 - day historical volatility was 14.99% (up 0.13%), 20 - day historical volatility was 19.87% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose on August 22 due to rising soybean oil prices. The November contract closed 3.20 CAD higher at 666.50 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 3.10 CAD to 677.50 CAD/ton [2]. - Pro Farmer predicted US soybean average yield at a record - high 53.0 bushels/acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, similar to USDA forecasts [2]. - AAFC estimated Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons (up 12.9% from July), and ending stocks at 2.2 million tons (doubled from last month) [2]. - The US EPA's new decision on small refinery biofuel exemptions may boost large - refinery biofuel demand and benefit US soybean oil [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9374 | -4 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2487 | -57 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 206 | 28 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 192 | -40 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 305440 | 12513 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 637424 | 60942 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 34744 | 8830 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -50162 | -12921 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 0 | -1707 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | -31218 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 707.7 | -4 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5328 ...