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瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260112
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 09:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal prices continue to decline and perform weaker than soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseeds for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, there is pressure on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8980 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2330 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 623.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 64 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 256330 lots, up 11209 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 827782 lots, up 18437 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 18798 lots, down 7881 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 121734 lots, down 14391 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 2292 sheets, up 250 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9906.25 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7481.85 yuan/ton, down 54.33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 758 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 70 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 750 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.63%, up 0.44%; that of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, up 0.37%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.67%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.49%, down 0.66% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.53%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, up 0.12%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.78%, up 0.41%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.42%, up 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 9 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but recorded a strong weekly increase. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 2.20 Canadian dollars or 0.35%, settling at 623.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report, and analysts expect a slight downward adjustment of the US soybean production forecast [2]. - The MPOB report shows that as of the end of December, the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 3.05 million tons, reaching the highest level in the same period in five years. However, high - frequency data shows that the supply side continued to reduce production this month, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in the first ten days. In addition, Indonesia may confiscate another 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year and may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy, which is beneficial to palm oil prices [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international rapeseed futures market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic rapeseed - related market is influenced by supply, demand, and trade policies. For rapeseed meal, the reduction in near - month rapeseed arrivals and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand support the market, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. For rapeseed oil, the low - level oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, while weak terminal consumption restricts short - term prices. The market is also affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9770 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2533 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 618.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5177 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 289 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 255147 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 386706 lots, with a decrease of 7640 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5394 lots, down 4377 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 5229 lots, down 7582 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 6857 sheets, an increase of 387 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 10383 sheets, a decrease of 960 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9930 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9995 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7734.17 yuan/ton, down 102.53 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 97 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [2] - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 17.6 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, an increase of 4 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, an increase of 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points [2] - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 839 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 31.51 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.55 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.3 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.03 tons, an increase of 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 2.74 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, an increase of 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.34%, down 0.89 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.35%, down 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.75%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.73%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.1%, down 3.99 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.98%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.35%, down 1.64 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.12%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - On September 9th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures, as the rapeseed oil inventory report did not change the supply - demand expectation. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed 7.60 Canadian dollars lower, and the January contract closed 6.60 Canadian dollars lower [2] - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the excellent - good rate is relatively high, resulting in a good crop yield outlook and supply - side pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - In the international market, the reduction in planting area supports the US soybean price, but the market is uncertain due to the divergence in private institutions' predictions of the USDA report [2] - In the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed by China may affect its exports. The Canadian government is considering relaxing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to avoid additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed [2] - In the US, senators are trying to prevent the Trump administration from adjusting renewable fuel obligation policies, which has led to a sharp decline in US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market [2] - In the domestic market, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is relatively loose. However, the low operating rate of oil mills and the shortage of near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure [2]
菜籽系产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market has near - term supply pressure reduction due to less near - month rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal aquaculture demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues, with a bullish bias and high volatility [2]. - The rapeseed oil market faces short - term consumption off - season and ample supply, but low oil mill operation rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market shows a narrow - range oscillation and suggests a bullish approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9891 yuan/ton (up 1), rapeseed meal at 2547 yuan/ton (up 4), ICE rapeseed at 665 CAD/ton (up 3.2), and domestic rapeseed at 4843 yuan/ton (down 29) [2]. - Spreads and positions: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 174 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was 74 yuan/ton (unchanged). Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 291283 hands (down 5), rapeseed meal were 422516 hands (up 1488). Rapeseed oil net long positions of top 20 were 6365 hands (down 98), rapeseed meal were - 4882 hands (up 3873) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 (unchanged), rapeseed meal were 8066 (down 187) [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9950 yuan/ton (up 50), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2580 yuan/ton (up 40), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), imported rapeseed cost was 8346.97 yuan/ton (up 66.31) [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 3.84 (up 0.05), rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 60 yuan/ton (down 49), rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 33 yuan/ton (up 36), rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1270 yuan/ton (up 20), rapeseed - palm oil spread was 410 yuan/ton (up 130), soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 480 yuan/ton (down 30) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), domestic rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). Rapeseed imports were 17.6 million tons (down 0.85 million tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 million tons (up 4 million tons), rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 million tons (up 7.56 million tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory at oil mills was 15 million tons (unchanged), imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 12.79% (up 0.85%), imported rapeseed crushing profit was 613 yuan/ton (down 18) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons (down 0.55 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons (up 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons (up 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons (up 0.29 million tons), rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons (up 0.52 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: Feed production was 2937.7 million tons (up 175.6 million tons), edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 million tons (up 41.8 million tons), and catering revenue was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: Rapeseed meal call option implied volatility was 20.89% (up 0.18%), put option implied volatility was 0.13% (up 0.07%), 60 - day historical volatility was 20.89% (up 0.11%), 20 - day historical volatility was 22.11% (up 0.07%). Rapeseed oil call option implied volatility was 14.39% (up 0.29%), put option implied volatility was 0.49% (up 0.3%), 60 - day historical volatility was 14.99% (up 0.13%), 20 - day historical volatility was 19.87% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose on August 22 due to rising soybean oil prices. The November contract closed 3.20 CAD higher at 666.50 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 3.10 CAD to 677.50 CAD/ton [2]. - Pro Farmer predicted US soybean average yield at a record - high 53.0 bushels/acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, similar to USDA forecasts [2]. - AAFC estimated Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons (up 12.9% from July), and ending stocks at 2.2 million tons (doubled from last month) [2]. - The US EPA's new decision on small refinery biofuel exemptions may boost large - refinery biofuel demand and benefit US soybean oil [2].
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250513
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 10:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to increased imports from India and relatively high short - term inventory, but the supply is likely to tighten in the long run. The rapeseed meal futures price is oscillating downward, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but high long - term uncertainty. The price is in a range - bound oscillation, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) closed at 9374 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) closed at 2487 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures (active) closed at 707.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) closed at 5328 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 206 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) was 192 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 305,440 lots, up 12,513 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 637,424 lots, up 60,942 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was 34,744 lots, up 8,830 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 50,162 lots, down 12,921 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 0, down 1,707; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 0, down 31,218 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2420 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9377.5 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5145.76 yuan/ton, down 49.96 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 67 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8670 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1140 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total rapeseed import quantity in the current month was 24.68 million tons, down 8.63 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 30 million tons, unchanged; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed was 42.51%, up 17.06 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 32 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 16.05 million tons, up 2 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 3.6 million tons, up 2.15 million tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory was 64.9 million tons, down 0.64 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 45.42 million tons, down 0.17 million tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 25.7 million tons, up 2.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 0.72 million tons, down 3.11 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal was 5.01 million tons, down 0.34 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Social consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 4235 billion yuan, down 1314 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.95%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 22.17%, up 0.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 27.56%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was down 0.07 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.47%, down 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 16.77%, down 0.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed mixed on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 0.21% due to heavy technical resistance. The 7 - month contract fell 1.5 Canadian dollars to 710.60 Canadian dollars/ton; the 11 - month contract rose 6.2 Canadian dollars to 676.80 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract rose 6 Canadian dollars to 684.00 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - South American rapeseed production is gradually being realized, putting continuous pressure on international soybean prices. However, the USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season to be 295 million bushels, significantly lower than market expectations, which is bullish for the market [2]. Key Points to Watch - The EPA administrator said that the RVO will be announced within two weeks, and attention should be paid to the demand for US soybean oil for biodiesel [2]. - In China, the import volume of rapeseed in the first quarter decreased, reducing the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side. After the tariff increase, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed oil has increased significantly, limiting future import volumes [2]. - Monitor the rapeseed开机率 and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions on Monday of MyAgriNet, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].