（1）印尼种植园国有化，管理问题或制约产量释放 印度尼西亚作为全球第一大棕榈油生产国，其与马来西亚共同为全球主要需求国提供棕榈油供应来源， 其产量和出口情况会对全球供应格局形成较大扰动。根据印尼棕榈油协会（GAPKI）统计数据显示， 印尼2025年1-8月的累计产量在3904万吨左右，较上一年度同期的3452万吨增加了452万吨。GAPKI估计 2025年全年棕榈油产量将达到4961万吨至5154万吨，高于2024年的4816万吨。有利的天气和补种计划带 来的新树采收是今年产量增长的主要原因。 然而，我们对2026年印尼产量的增长幅度并不乐观。印尼政府今年大规模推进对非法油棕种植园的整顿 行动，并由新成立的国有企业Agrinas Palma Nusantara负责接管这些土地。截至2025年11月，印尼政府 累计查没约370万公顷非法油棕种植园，其中，近半数（约 151万公顷）已移交Agrinas管理。在此背景 下，市场对于新企业Agrinas管理经验和水平，业务重心转向以及不利政策对油棕种植投资活动的抑制 等方面均存在不少担忧，未来产量的进一步释放很可能会受到牵制。GAPKI主管表示，2026年印尼毛 棕榈 ...

年度报告-油脂 潮退的寂静，于暮色中等待风起 [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] 菜油：震荡，豆油：看涨，棕榈油：看涨 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★行情回顾 油脂市场在今年年初回调后，全年始终维持偏高位运行。上半 年，棕榈油冲高回落后走弱，豆油以跟随为主，波动较小，菜 油则受到政策影响走势偏强。6 月中旬，受到美国生物燃料政策 的利多影响，国内油脂市场跟随美豆油与马棕油走强，菜油也 在持续震荡后再度受到政策影响走高，一度突破 10000 元。四季 度产地供应压力激增，叠加生物燃料政策的不确定性增加，油 脂市场在棕榈油的领跌下全线回调。 农 ★行情展望 产 品 2026 年，油脂市场的核心驱动力依旧在国际贸易关系与生物燃 料政策，伴随美国生物燃料政策逐步确定，我们仍倾向于油脂 市场整体价格中枢有望上移。 棕榈油：2026 年产量预计小幅下滑，印尼的生物柴油政策格外 重要。在节省巨额外汇情况下，印尼政府有动力持续推进生柴 政策，而基金问题也可通过上调税率解决，关注点在于 NPSO 部门的政策调整，我们对印尼生柴政策持中性偏乐观的态度。 豆油：后续美国生物燃料政策 ...

Core Insights - China's soybean imports reached 8.11 million tons in November, marking a 13.4% increase from 7.15 million tons in the same month last year, and the highest level for the same period in four years [1] - Despite a 14.5% month-on-month decline from October's 9.48 million tons, the cumulative import total for the first 11 months of the year increased by 6.9% year-on-year, reaching 13.79 million tons, setting a solid foundation for a potential record annual import volume [1] - Analysts predict that total soybean imports for the year could reach a record 110 million tons, driven by significant purchases of Brazilian and U.S. soybeans [1][4] Import Dynamics - The import landscape has been influenced by changes in international trade relations, particularly the U.S.-China trade tensions that previously halted U.S. soybean purchases for several months [4] - Following a trade truce agreement between the U.S. and China at the end of October, China has gradually resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans, with COFCO leading the way by pre-purchasing approximately 2.7 million tons [4] - This volume is still below the U.S. government's target of 12 million tons by the end of the year, although there are indications that the deadline may be extended to February next year [4] Demand Drivers - The continuous growth in China's soybean imports is driven by multiple factors, including the strong demand from the domestic pig farming industry for soybean meal and other feed proteins [4] - The stabilization of domestic pig production capacity has maintained high demand for quality feed ingredients [4] - The relative price advantage of international soybeans, particularly from Brazil, has also stimulated purchasing interest among importers [4] Future Outlook - Industry analysts generally expect China's soybean import levels to remain high, supported by ongoing consumption upgrades and the modernization of the livestock industry [5] - Adjustments in the global soybean supply chain and China's diversified import strategies to ensure food security will also contribute to stable growth in soybean import volumes [5]

在过去很长一段时间以来，作为中国进入美国的重要门户，墨西哥一直是中国企业所布局的重点，但如今，随着特朗普的上台，墨西哥的政策出现180度的 转变。墨西哥新任总统亲鲍姆为了讨好美国，曾计划向中国的钢铁以及汽车零部件征收50%的关税，引发了中方的强烈不满与反制。如今，随着中国的一系 列反制措施彻底落地，墨西哥似乎眼神都清澈了，开始寻求一个更加缓和的方式来解决自身处在中美之间的"夹缝危机"，甚至还想找中方谈一谈。 墨西哥不再对华态度强硬？ 10月11日，多家媒体提到了墨西哥对华加征关税的最新进程。按照多名墨西哥执政党内部人士的说法，目前的相关议案已经被"暂停"，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆在 当天也表示，相关的提案将在与中国进行磋商之后再进行推进。 报道进一步指出，在墨西哥方面发布这一消息之后中方迅速做出了反制，明确表示，将采取必要措施维护自身的合法权益，或许是出什么是个方面大幅度转 向的核心原因。 而中国作为墨西哥的第二大贸易合作伙伴，之所以受到墨西哥如此冷不丁的针对，很大程度上还是由于墨西哥政府遭受了来自特朗普政府的巨大政治压力， 要求墨西哥限制进口中国商品，以避免墨西哥成为中国商品进入美国的"后门"。 浪子回头？ 应该说 ...

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract for rapeseed meal futures opening at 2533.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of approximately 2.23% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with Donghai Futures noting high inventory pressures but potential for upward movement due to low rapeseed stocks and unchanged policy expectations [1] - Ruida Futures highlights reduced supply pressure from lower rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture, while also noting the impact of trade negotiations between China and Canada on rapeseed imports [1] Group 2 - The upcoming round of talks between China and the US is crucial, with the USDA report indicating a slight reduction in US soybean yield but an increase in harvested area, leading to a neutral to slightly bearish outlook [2] - Domestic soybean meal remains in a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with short-term supply limiting price increases, suggesting a wide fluctuation in soybean and rapeseed meal prices [2] - Recommendations for soybean meal trading include a support level reference between 2900-3000 CNY [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international rapeseed futures market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic rapeseed - related market is influenced by supply, demand, and trade policies. For rapeseed meal, the reduction in near - month rapeseed arrivals and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand support the market, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. For rapeseed oil, the low - level oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure, while weak terminal consumption restricts short - term prices. The market is also affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9770 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2533 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 618.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.1 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5177 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 289 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 255147 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 386706 lots, with a decrease of 7640 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 5394 lots, down 4377 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 5229 lots, down 7582 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 6857 sheets, an increase of 387 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 10383 sheets, a decrease of 960 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9930 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 9995 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7734.17 yuan/ton, down 102.53 yuan [2] - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 97 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [2] - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 17.6 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, an increase of 4 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, an increase of 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points [2] - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed disk pressing profit is 839 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.8 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 31.51 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.55 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.3 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.03 tons, an increase of 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 2.74 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, an increase of 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.34%, down 0.89 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.35%, down 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.75%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.73%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 27.1%, down 3.99 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.98%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.35%, down 1.64 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.12%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - On September 9th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures, as the rapeseed oil inventory report did not change the supply - demand expectation. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed 7.60 Canadian dollars lower, and the January contract closed 6.60 Canadian dollars lower [2] - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the excellent - good rate is relatively high, resulting in a good crop yield outlook and supply - side pressure. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the market [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - In the international market, the reduction in planting area supports the US soybean price, but the market is uncertain due to the divergence in private institutions' predictions of the USDA report [2] - In the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed by China may affect its exports. The Canadian government is considering relaxing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to avoid additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed [2] - In the US, senators are trying to prevent the Trump administration from adjusting renewable fuel obligation policies, which has led to a sharp decline in US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market [2] - In the domestic market, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is relatively loose. However, the low operating rate of oil mills and the shortage of near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The rapeseed and related product markets are influenced by international trade relations, with recent market fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended. The market is also affected by factors such as supply and demand, harvest conditions, and trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. Domestically, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong export data for Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9801 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2513 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 6041 yuan/ton, down 369 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 107 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 263,549 lots, down 52 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 404,322 lots, down 9,848 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holding for rapeseed oil is 5,797 lots, down 1,541 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holding for rapeseed meal is - 22,321 lots, down 8,632 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3,887 sheets, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 4,750 sheets, up 104 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9945 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7858.15 yuan/ton, down 95.37 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 79 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 87 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast in China is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.05 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons, down 0.95 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 2.79 million tons, down 0.45 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.64%, up 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.65%, up 0.21%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 11.83%, up 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 11.83%, up 0.23% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.15%, down 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.84%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.44%, up 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.37%, up 0.11% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 29, ICE rapeseed futures fell to a nearly five - month low due to fund long - position liquidation and the start of the Canadian rapeseed harvest. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 9.30 Canadian dollars at 626.40 Canadian dollars per ton, hitting a low of 621.70 Canadian dollars since April 7 [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels. The deviation from the USDA forecast is small, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - International supply pressure exists, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. Domestically, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals reduces supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts demand. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, there are supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong export data for Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens long - term supply [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [2].

Core Viewpoint - Pakistan has suspended all trade with India, indicating a significant geopolitical shift that may impact regional economic dynamics and trade relationships [1] Group 1 - The suspension of trade is a direct response to ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, highlighting the fragile nature of their economic interactions [1] - This decision may lead to increased economic isolation for both countries, affecting various sectors reliant on cross-border trade [1] - The halt in trade could have broader implications for regional supply chains and may influence foreign investment decisions in the area [1]