"4000"是今年一个很神奇的数字。 虽然比金价突破 4000美元/盎司晚了一点，上证指数也在前段时间站上了4000点，然后大家一起 在"4000"上下徘徊。 这样极致又震荡的市场环境，对持有人来说，钱包稳不住，心态就更稳不住了，很想找人说说话 …… 在本次《深夜食堂》的系列节目中，我们就遇到了一位 "高精度"输出的基金经理——国泰基金张容赫。 一方面可能因为他 自带幽默与好口才；另一方面，可能是因为他在投资中 "既要、又要、还要"的性格，看 得多、想得多。 他既要通过限制仓位、回撤、投资风格，构建一个客户持有体感不错的组合，又要重视各类持有人的差异化 诉求，还要兼顾排名目标。 因此在面对每个问题时，他一定是先理逻辑，再谈结论，甚至有时更多的是观察，而没有结论。 这与他的投资决策也很相似，先把边界画清楚，再在框架内追求 "能打的组合"。 在张容赫看来， "组合管理就是一个多约束下的结构优化问题"。 为了更清晰地白描这位难以一言概之的基金经理，在本期深夜食堂录制前， 我们与 张容赫 做了 一次 深入 访谈 。 （点此查看 《走近张容赫，更理解了"稳"是一种被低估的能力》 ） 此外，张容赫尤其重视持有人体验， " ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy and performance of Zhang Ronghe, a fund manager at Guotai Fund, highlighting his unique approach to portfolio management and market analysis [4][48]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Zhang Ronghe emphasizes a macroeconomic and expectation gap approach, prioritizing macro factors such as economic trends and liquidity conditions in his investment decisions [15][16]. - He focuses on identifying "mispriced" stocks, particularly those with poor price performance but strong fundamentals, diverging from traditional value or trend investing [21][22]. - The portfolio management is characterized by a multi-constraint optimization approach, where various factors such as product settings, client risk tolerance, and performance metrics are considered [28][30]. Group 2: Portfolio Performance - Since Zhang Ronghe took over the Guotai Blue Chip Select Fund, it has shown a return of 48.52% with an excess return of 18.55%, demonstrating strong downside protection [8][20]. - The fund maintains a relatively high equity position, around 60%-95%, and has shown resilience during market downturns, with a notable recovery after significant market drops [5][6][4]. - The top holdings in the portfolio consist of established blue-chip stocks, with each accounting for only about 2% of the total net value, indicating a diversified approach [7][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Zhang Ronghe's market outlook is characterized by a contrarian perspective, often identifying positive factors when the market sentiment is negative and vice versa [18][19]. - He believes that the market's consensus can often lead to mispricing, and he actively seeks to exploit these discrepancies [20][19]. - His analysis includes a focus on the cyclical nature of market expectations, adjusting his strategy based on prevailing sentiment and macroeconomic indicators [20][21]. Group 4: Client Management - Zhang Ronghe prioritizes client experience in his portfolio management, ensuring that clients are well-informed and comfortable with the investment strategy [34][36]. - He acknowledges the importance of communication and transparency, especially when the fund underperforms or misses market opportunities [35][36]. - His approach to risk management involves understanding client psychology and ensuring that they can tolerate market fluctuations [36][37].