12月30日，中青旅涨1.01%，截至发稿，报10.05元/股，成交1.80亿元，换手率2.53%，总市值72.75亿 元。 截至发稿，张容赫累计任职时间2年208天，现任基金资产总规模41.56亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 44.99%， 任职期间最差基金回报-0.77%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 国泰央企改革股票A（001626）成立日期2015年9月1日，最新规模5866.95万。今年以来收益6.2%，同 类排名3712/4195；近一年收益4.13%，同类排名3749/4179；成立以来收益78.62%。 国泰央企改革股票A（001626）基金经理为张容赫。 资料显示，中青旅控股股份有限公司位于北京市东城区东直门南大街5号中青旅大厦，成立日期1997年 11月25日，上市日期1997年12月3日，公司主营业务涉及从事旅游、高科技、风险投资、证券行业的投 资。主营业务收入构成为：IT产品44.11%，整合营销服务15.83% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market environment characterized by volatility and the significance of the number "4000" in relation to the Shanghai Composite Index and gold prices, highlighting the challenges faced by investors in maintaining stability in their portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Zhang Ronghe, a fund manager at Guotai Fund, emphasizes the importance of understanding investor needs and constructing portfolios that provide a stable experience for holders [3][9]. - He believes that portfolio management is a structural optimization problem under multiple constraints, focusing on creating a "usable combination" within defined boundaries [5][6]. - Zhang's investment philosophy includes a strong emphasis on communication with investors, particularly through quarterly reports, to align expectations and experiences [9][62]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article notes a significant divergence between traditional industries and technology stocks, with the latter showing strong performance while the former remains under pressure [20][26]. - Zhang observes that the market's current low volatility and high concentration in certain sectors may lead to a reversal of trends, suggesting opportunities in domestic demand as economic conditions evolve [9][28]. - He highlights the cyclical nature of investments, particularly in core assets that have been overlooked, indicating that such periods may present opportunities for finding discrepancies in expectations [27][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Zhang advocates for a balanced approach to asset allocation, adjusting portfolios based on market conditions and asset performance, rather than maintaining a static strategy [21][22]. - He advises investors to diversify their portfolios to mitigate systemic risks, suggesting that combining assets with negative correlations can enhance overall stability [41]. - The importance of adjusting expectations regarding returns is emphasized, encouraging investors to accept a gradual wealth-building process rather than seeking immediate high returns [40][41]. Group 4: Macro Economic Considerations - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment, with many investors recognizing a stagflation period rather than a high-growth, low-inflation scenario [34][35]. - Zhang points out the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing inflation control and unemployment rates, which could significantly impact asset prices [37]. - He notes that the current market dynamics, including the performance of AI stocks, do not align with traditional economic indicators, suggesting a complex relationship between asset performance and macroeconomic conditions [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy and performance of Zhang Ronghe, a fund manager at Guotai Fund, highlighting his unique approach to portfolio management and market analysis [4][48]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Zhang Ronghe emphasizes a macroeconomic and expectation gap approach, prioritizing macro factors such as economic trends and liquidity conditions in his investment decisions [15][16]. - He focuses on identifying "mispriced" stocks, particularly those with poor price performance but strong fundamentals, diverging from traditional value or trend investing [21][22]. - The portfolio management is characterized by a multi-constraint optimization approach, where various factors such as product settings, client risk tolerance, and performance metrics are considered [28][30]. Group 2: Portfolio Performance - Since Zhang Ronghe took over the Guotai Blue Chip Select Fund, it has shown a return of 48.52% with an excess return of 18.55%, demonstrating strong downside protection [8][20]. - The fund maintains a relatively high equity position, around 60%-95%, and has shown resilience during market downturns, with a notable recovery after significant market drops [5][6][4]. - The top holdings in the portfolio consist of established blue-chip stocks, with each accounting for only about 2% of the total net value, indicating a diversified approach [7][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Zhang Ronghe's market outlook is characterized by a contrarian perspective, often identifying positive factors when the market sentiment is negative and vice versa [18][19]. - He believes that the market's consensus can often lead to mispricing, and he actively seeks to exploit these discrepancies [20][19]. - His analysis includes a focus on the cyclical nature of market expectations, adjusting his strategy based on prevailing sentiment and macroeconomic indicators [20][21]. Group 4: Client Management - Zhang Ronghe prioritizes client experience in his portfolio management, ensuring that clients are well-informed and comfortable with the investment strategy [34][36]. - He acknowledges the importance of communication and transparency, especially when the fund underperforms or misses market opportunities [35][36]. - His approach to risk management involves understanding client psychology and ensuring that they can tolerate market fluctuations [36][37].