本轮行情是国家战略、技术进展、资本市场突破、商业化潜力形成共识等多方面因素共振的结果，明确 指向产业爆发拐点。 国家战略层面，《行动计划》将商业航天纳入国家航天发展总体布局。在"十五五"规划建议中，航空航 天被列为加快发展的战略性新兴产业集群之一。其背景在于，当前部署巨型低轨卫星互联网星座是全球 各国太空竞赛的焦点，必须依赖以低成本、大规模、高频次为特征的商业航天。 我国也规划了上万颗卫星规模的"千帆星座"和"国网星座（GW星座）"。两大星座均于2024年启动发射 组网，并在2025年提高发射频次。更关键的是，我国正稳步推进可重复使用火箭的研制和试验，一旦取 得技术突破，将大大降低发射成本，实现高频发射。 商业航天板块日K线图 ◎记者 刘怡鹤 朱雀三号、长征十二号甲两型可重复使用火箭首飞，国家航天局商业航天司设立，《国家航天局推进商 业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》（下称《行动计划》）印发，《上海证券交易所发 行上市审核规则适用指引第9号——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》落地，蓝箭航天IPO获 受理…… 2025年末，商业航天产业迎来密集利好，A股市场商业航天、卫星互联网板块也在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Star Eye" space perception constellation plan by Xingtou Measurement and Control aims to address the challenges of space traffic management and create a new model for space management services [2][3]. Group 1: Space Traffic Management - The "Star Eye" constellation will provide comprehensive data services and support for commercial satellite operators, government, and research institutions throughout the satellite lifecycle, significantly enhancing the reliability and success rate of on-orbit missions [2][3]. - The constellation consists of 156 satellites designed to create a global, responsive monitoring network for near-Earth orbits, utilizing Xingtou Measurement and Control's self-developed "Observer" space information analysis platform [3][4]. Group 2: Collision Risk Mitigation - The "Star Eye" system will monitor satellites and space debris, analyze satellite orbital data, and predict collision risks, thereby providing precise and efficient space traffic management data services [3][6]. - The European Space Agency (ESA) reports over 50,000 pieces of space debris larger than 10 centimeters and approximately 1.2 million pieces between 1 and 10 centimeters, highlighting the urgent need for collision risk reduction [6][7]. Group 3: Future Developments and Opportunities - The first phase of the "Star Eye" project plans to launch a test satellite in the first half of 2026, with an initial backbone constellation of 12 high-performance satellites [3][4]. - The second phase aims to establish a low-cost enhancement constellation of 144 satellites, focusing on rapid cataloging and tracking of maneuvering and newly launched targets [4]. - The National Space Administration's action plan emphasizes the need for space debris monitoring and collision warning systems, indicating a growing demand for space perception services [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active performance of the aerospace and defense industry, particularly the recent surge in rocket launches and the development of the GW constellation project, which is seen as China's version of Starlink [1][2] - The aerospace ETF (159227) has shown a slight decline of 0.32% with a trading volume exceeding 100 million, indicating strong market interest despite the dip [1] - The recent nine rocket launches in the past 25 days have already surpassed a quarter of the total launches in the first half of the year, showcasing the increasing pace of China's space activities [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF closely tracks the national aerospace index, focusing on key sectors within the Chinese military industry, including aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials [2] - The index is designed to capture the growth opportunities in defense technology and high-end equipment upgrades, reflecting the strategic importance of these sectors in national defense modernization [2] - The selected component stocks within the ETF include leading companies in the military sector, covering emerging fields such as large aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's commercial space industry is entering a period of intensive launches, with significant growth in the number of rocket launches and a focus on satellite network projects like the GW constellation, which aims for global broadband coverage similar to SpaceX's Starlink [3][4]. Launch Statistics - In the past 25 days, China has conducted nine rocket launches, accounting for over 25% of the total 35 launches in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The recent launches include multiple missions supporting the GW constellation, a broadband satellite project led by China Satellite Network Group [3][4]. Cost and Technology Challenges - The cost of satellite launches in China is high, averaging around 150,000 yuan per kilogram, leading to launch costs for a 500 kg satellite potentially exceeding 75 million yuan [6]. - Key challenges in the industry include improving launch frequency and reducing costs, particularly through advancements in rocket engine technology and reusability [4][6][8]. Engine Development - Engine performance is critical for determining rocket payload capacity and reusability, directly impacting launch costs [7][8]. - Current domestic engines face challenges such as high-temperature coking, which complicates maintenance and increases costs [8][9]. - Companies are exploring alternative fuels like liquid oxygen and methane to enhance reusability and efficiency [9]. Competitive Landscape - SpaceX's Starship serves as a benchmark for domestic companies, particularly in terms of recovery technology and cost reduction through reusability [12][13]. - Domestic companies are working on developing high-capacity rockets, with some aiming for payload capacities of over 40 tons to significantly lower launch costs [12][14]. Investment and Market Trends - Recent funding rounds indicate a growing interest in foundational capabilities, particularly in engine development and low-orbit satellite networks [18][19]. - The market is expected to see significant orders from satellite network construction in the next three years, emphasizing the need for low-cost, high-capacity launch capabilities [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The players who can successfully establish a low-cost and high-capacity closed loop in the space economy will likely dominate the future discourse in this sector [1]. Group 1: Recent Developments in China's Commercial Space Industry - China has entered a period of intensive rocket launches, with nine launches occurring in the past 25 days, contributing to a total of 35 launches in the first half of the year [1]. - At least five of the recent launches supported the GW constellation project, a broadband internet satellite initiative led by China Satellite Network Group, which is seen as China's version of SpaceX's Starlink [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Launch Costs and Technology - The high cost of satellite launches is a significant barrier, with domestic launch costs estimated at 150,000 yuan per kilogram, potentially exceeding the manufacturing cost of the satellites themselves [4]. - The key to reducing launch costs lies in technological advancements, particularly in rocket engine development and reuse capabilities [4][5]. Group 3: Engine Technology and Competitive Landscape - Engine performance directly impacts rocket capacity and recovery potential, which are crucial for lowering launch costs [5]. - Current domestic engines face challenges such as high-temperature coking, which complicates reuse and increases costs [5]. - SpaceX has set a benchmark with its Raptor engine, which utilizes a full-flow staged combustion cycle, enhancing efficiency and capacity [6]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Market Dynamics - The market for satellite constellation construction is expected to be the largest source of orders in the next three years, emphasizing the need for low-cost and high-capacity launch capabilities [15]. - Recent funding activities indicate a growing focus on foundational capabilities, particularly in engine development and low-orbit satellite networking [14]. - The commercial space industry must prioritize operational efficiency and scalability to establish long-term competitive advantages [16].