来源：环球市场播报 由于投资者陷入两难困境：既担心错过人工智能热潮带来的上涨红利，又忧虑这是一场即将破裂的泡 沫，美国股市明年或将持续处于震荡状态。 过去 18 个月里，股市大幅抛售与快速反弹交替出现已成常态。这一趋势在 2026 年大概率会延续，部分 策略师预测，人工智能领域或将重蹈以往技术革命 "繁荣 - 崩盘" 的周期性覆辙。 引领人工智能投资热潮的科技企业，拥有着远超其体量的市场影响力。2025 年，正是这类企业与标普 500 指数其他成分股的走势分化，在一定程度上抑制了市场的实际波动率 —— 科技板块的上涨抵消了 其他板块的下跌。但与此同时，投资者也在警惕芯片类股的颓势可能蔓延，一旦出现这种情况，芝加哥 期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指数 VIX）等波动指标或将大幅飙升。 瑞银集团衍生品策略师基兰・戴蒙德表示："2025 年总体而言是一个板块轮动、龙头股集中的年份，而 非呈现出全面风险偏好或风险规避的特征。这一态势推动隐含相关性跌至历史低点，也意味着，每当宏 观因素重新主导市场走势时，恐慌指数 VIX 就可能持续出现异常飙升。" 美国银行近期的一项调查显示，股价的暴涨幅度，已让 "泡沫担忧" 成为基金经 ...

明年美国股市注定会坐立难安，因为投资者陷入了两难境地：既害怕错过AI的涨势，又担心这只是一 个随时可能破裂的泡沫。 过去18个月里，大幅抛售和快速反转一直是股市的特征。这种趋势很可能会持续到2026年，一些策略师 预计AI热潮将遵循过去技术革命的繁荣与萧条周期。 处于AI投资热潮中心的科技公司拥有巨大的影响力。虽然该板块与标普500指数其余部分的分化有助于 抑制2025年市场的已实现波动率（因为科技股的上涨抵消了其他领域的下跌），但投资者对芯片股可能 出现的动荡保持警惕。这可能导致芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）等波动率指标飙升。 "2025年通常是板块轮动和少数个股领涨的一年，而不是广泛的风险偏好开启或关闭的一年，"瑞银衍生 品策略师Kieran Diamond表示。"这有助于将隐含相关性水平拉低至历史低点，但这反过来又让VIX面临 风险：一旦宏观驱动因素再次占据主导地位，VIX随时可能出现持续的大幅飙升。" 美国银行最近的一项调查发现，股价上涨的规模已使对泡沫的担忧成为基金经理们的头号心病，但另一 个担忧是典型的"踏空风险"，这可能会惩罚任何过早撤退的人。 明年美股市场注定不平静。投资者陷入两难：既害 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of futures private asset management (PAM) in China has gained significant momentum, with the scale reaching a historical high of 364 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory and importance in the revenue structure of futures companies [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Scale - As of mid-2023, the scale of futures private PAM has reached 364 billion yuan, accounting for 3.01% of the total scale of private PAM products in the securities and futures sector [1][2]. - In June 2023, there were 1,399 registered private PAM products, a month-on-month increase of 5.35% and a year-on-year increase of 62.49% [2]. - The total scale of private PAM products in the securities and futures sector reached 12.09 trillion yuan, with futures companies contributing significantly to this growth [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The futures PAM market has shown a clear trend of concentration among leading firms, with a few companies dominating the market due to their strong capabilities and established business models [3]. - Nearly 100 futures companies and their subsidiaries are engaged in PAM, highlighting the sector's importance and the significant presence of leading firms [3]. - The shift towards equity futures PAM products is expected to increase in 2024, reflecting growing investor interest in the equity market [3]. Group 3: Business Development and Strategy - The futures PAM business has evolved from a focus on scale expansion to enhancing capabilities, with firms increasingly integrating risk management and asset management services [4]. - Futures companies are innovating their product offerings, such as "fixed income + CTA" and over-the-counter swaps, to enhance their investment capabilities in the derivatives market [4]. - The differentiation of futures PAM products from traditional banking and public fund products is crucial for future growth, emphasizing the need for specialization in derivatives and risk management [5][6].

Group 1: Market Risks and Responses - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have led to increased volatility in domestic and international financial markets, particularly following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, which raised recession fears for the US economy [1] - Although the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy was postponed for 90 days, the underlying risks remain, prompting the need for domestic enterprises to adopt strategies to manage these risks effectively [1] Group 2: Derivative Tools and Strategic Management - China has established a comprehensive commodity industry chain, and the application of futures tools has evolved from basic risk hedging to more integrated risk management strategies [2] - By the end of 2024, 1,408 listed companies in China had announced hedging strategies, indicating a growing trend in utilizing futures for risk management [2] Group 3: Price Discovery and Market Analysis - China's futures market includes 71 listed commodity futures and 146 total futures and options, with over 2.5 million investors and a margin scale of 1.6 trillion yuan, providing valuable price signals for enterprises [3] - The characteristics of the price signals in the futures market—broad, long, precise, and deep—enable companies to enhance their market analysis and strategic planning [3] Group 4: Risk Management Tools - The futures market offers various risk hedging tools, including on-exchange futures, options, and over-the-counter swaps, allowing for personalized and refined risk management services for enterprises [4] - Companies in oversupplied sectors can utilize options strategies to improve sales prices while managing the risks associated with price increases [4] Group 5: Transitioning to Certainty in Operations - Enterprises can shift from a reliance on spot markets to a diversified approach that includes futures, options, and basis management, enhancing stability in their operations [6] - This transition allows for a multi-faceted management approach, incorporating exposure management, basis management, volatility management, and scale management [6] Group 6: Enhanced Risk Management Practices - The recent volatility in commodity prices has heightened the need for improved risk management capabilities within companies, necessitating a structured approach to managing both predictable and unpredictable risks [7] - Companies should develop or refine their risk management processes to better handle market uncertainties [7] Group 7: Collaborative Ecosystem Development - China's futures market has developed a mature service ecosystem, and enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with various institutions to create a synergistic business model that integrates price, tools, funds, information, and goods [8] - Futures companies are focusing on enhancing their service capabilities, emphasizing professional and detail-oriented intermediary services to improve client engagement [8] Group 8: Customized Risk Management Solutions - Futures companies are tasked with providing tailored risk management solutions that align with the unique needs of enterprises, utilizing a combination of futures, options, and swaps to optimize risk management strategies [9] - The integration of financial technology, such as AI and big data, is being leveraged to offer real-time risk monitoring and dynamic strategy adjustments for enterprises [9] Group 9: Trading Service Innovations - The competitive landscape of futures brokerage has led companies to seek new growth avenues, utilizing their research and risk management strengths to enhance client wealth and participate in risk-managed procurement and sales [10] - This approach allows futures companies to better serve the operational needs of enterprises while also creating new revenue streams [10]