来源：环球市场播报 由于投资者陷入两难困境：既担心错过人工智能热潮带来的上涨红利，又忧虑这是一场即将破裂的泡 沫，美国股市明年或将持续处于震荡状态。 过去 18 个月里，股市大幅抛售与快速反弹交替出现已成常态。这一趋势在 2026 年大概率会延续，部分 策略师预测，人工智能领域或将重蹈以往技术革命 "繁荣 - 崩盘" 的周期性覆辙。 引领人工智能投资热潮的科技企业，拥有着远超其体量的市场影响力。2025 年，正是这类企业与标普 500 指数其他成分股的走势分化，在一定程度上抑制了市场的实际波动率 —— 科技板块的上涨抵消了 其他板块的下跌。但与此同时，投资者也在警惕芯片类股的颓势可能蔓延，一旦出现这种情况，芝加哥 期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指数 VIX）等波动指标或将大幅飙升。 瑞银集团衍生品策略师基兰・戴蒙德表示："2025 年总体而言是一个板块轮动、龙头股集中的年份，而 非呈现出全面风险偏好或风险规避的特征。这一态势推动隐含相关性跌至历史低点，也意味着，每当宏 观因素重新主导市场走势时，恐慌指数 VIX 就可能持续出现异常飙升。" 美国银行近期的一项调查显示，股价的暴涨幅度，已让 "泡沫担忧" 成为基金经 ...

Group 1 - Increased speculation on volatility in the South Korean stock market has raised concerns about the sustainability of its strong performance this year, with the KOSPI volatility index reaching levels not seen since April during the Trump tariff crisis [1] - The KOSPI index has surged by 73% this year, aiming for its largest annual gain since 1999, outperforming all other global indices, while the KOSPI 200 index, which includes blue-chip stocks, has risen by 85% [1] - The rise in the KOSPI index is primarily driven by significant gains in semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which hold a larger weight in the index [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the current high levels of the KOSPI index reflect investor anxiety, with expectations for the market's continued rise appearing overly optimistic [4] - Both call and put option prices have increased, with the implied volatility for call options exceeding the one-year average, while put options remain below this level, indicating active positioning by traders [4] - Foreign investors have adjusted their portfolios in response to recent market volatility, selling approximately 1.65 trillion KRW (about 1.1 billion USD) in futures contracts linked to the KOSPI index, following its largest weekly decline since April [4]

#报告 美银全球股市波动率洞察：为持续的意外政治风险而交易。None (@None):None ...