来源：环球市场播报 由于投资者陷入两难困境：既担心错过人工智能热潮带来的上涨红利，又忧虑这是一场即将破裂的泡 沫，美国股市明年或将持续处于震荡状态。 过去 18 个月里，股市大幅抛售与快速反弹交替出现已成常态。这一趋势在 2026 年大概率会延续，部分 策略师预测，人工智能领域或将重蹈以往技术革命 "繁荣 - 崩盘" 的周期性覆辙。 引领人工智能投资热潮的科技企业，拥有着远超其体量的市场影响力。2025 年，正是这类企业与标普 500 指数其他成分股的走势分化，在一定程度上抑制了市场的实际波动率 —— 科技板块的上涨抵消了 其他板块的下跌。但与此同时，投资者也在警惕芯片类股的颓势可能蔓延，一旦出现这种情况，芝加哥 期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指数 VIX）等波动指标或将大幅飙升。 瑞银集团衍生品策略师基兰・戴蒙德表示："2025 年总体而言是一个板块轮动、龙头股集中的年份，而 非呈现出全面风险偏好或风险规避的特征。这一态势推动隐含相关性跌至历史低点，也意味着，每当宏 观因素重新主导市场走势时，恐慌指数 VIX 就可能持续出现异常飙升。" 美国银行近期的一项调查显示，股价的暴涨幅度，已让 "泡沫担忧" 成为基金经 ...

明年美国股市注定会坐立难安，因为投资者陷入了两难境地：既害怕错过AI的涨势，又担心这只是一 个随时可能破裂的泡沫。 过去18个月里，大幅抛售和快速反转一直是股市的特征。这种趋势很可能会持续到2026年，一些策略师 预计AI热潮将遵循过去技术革命的繁荣与萧条周期。 处于AI投资热潮中心的科技公司拥有巨大的影响力。虽然该板块与标普500指数其余部分的分化有助于 抑制2025年市场的已实现波动率（因为科技股的上涨抵消了其他领域的下跌），但投资者对芯片股可能 出现的动荡保持警惕。这可能导致芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）等波动率指标飙升。 "2025年通常是板块轮动和少数个股领涨的一年，而不是广泛的风险偏好开启或关闭的一年，"瑞银衍生 品策略师Kieran Diamond表示。"这有助于将隐含相关性水平拉低至历史低点，但这反过来又让VIX面临 风险：一旦宏观驱动因素再次占据主导地位，VIX随时可能出现持续的大幅飙升。" 美国银行最近的一项调查发现，股价上涨的规模已使对泡沫的担忧成为基金经理们的头号心病，但另一 个担忧是典型的"踏空风险"，这可能会惩罚任何过早撤退的人。 明年美股市场注定不平静。投资者陷入两难：既害 ...

王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 股指期货日报 2025年9月29日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 轻仓过节，可尝试双买期权 市场回顾 1、 国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超在新闻发布会上表示，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院 决策部署，促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资，国家发展改革委会同有关方面积极推进新型政 策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 2、国家发改委：支持民营企业等深度参与"人工智能+"行动。 3、 9月29日，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超表示，8月份，在宏观政策持续发力等因 素的带动之下，我国经济运行总体平稳。不过，当前经济运行当中依然面临着不少的风险和挑战，外部环境 仍然严峻复杂，经济回升向好的基础仍需进一步巩固。下一步，国家发展改革委将持续发力，适时加力实施 宏观政策。同时国家发展改革委也将持续加强经济的监测、预测、预警，做好政策预研储备，根据形势变化 及时推出。 4、工信部向中国移动颁发卫星移动通信业务经营许可。 核心观点 今日股市整体上行，沪深300指数再创新高，反映市场情绪整体 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Core Theme: Wait and See, "Balance" between Long and Short under Uncertainty [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index had a slight increase in trading volume today, with different performances among scale indexes. The small-cap index was relatively strong. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.21%. [2] - Capital Flow: The trading volume of the two markets increased by 64.17 billion yuan. [2] - Futures Index: IF and IH declined with increased volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume. [2] Group 3: Core View - Market Influence Factors: The stock market continued to fluctuate today, partly affected by the approaching Fed interest rate decision and the market's dovish expectations. The overnight US dollar index fell, and US stocks rose, driving the A-share market to reflect the expectation of loose liquidity to some extent. Technology stocks rose, and the small-cap index showed a significantly stronger trend. The results of the China-US talks had no impactful incremental information and limited influence. Trump said he would talk to President Xi on Friday. [4] - Market Outlook: Short-term policy uncertainty remains, and under the wait-and-see sentiment, the market's rise and fall will be relatively restrained. It is expected that tomorrow's market will continue to fluctuate, waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision to be announced early on Thursday. Be vigilant against the increased volatility caused by rumors. [4] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Buy straddle options strategy [5] Group 5: Important Information - Fed Personnel News: Milan was confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in Tuesday's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook was allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision. [6] - Industry Cooperation: On September 15, the Hangzhou Power Supply Company of the State Grid, Yushu Technology Company, Embodied Intelligence Base Company, and the Huadian Research Institute of Zhejiang Province of the State Grid signed a framework cooperation agreement on "Power + Embodied Intelligence" at the company's integrated innovation center, starting in-depth cooperation in the field of power artificial intelligence applications. [6] - Policy News: On September 16, an important article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" was published in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing that the construction of a national unified market is a major decision made by the Party Central Committee and is of great significance for promoting high-quality development and winning the initiative in international competition. [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.25 | 15.3511 | 1.5747 | 27.6592 | 0.9133 | | IH | -0.36 | 5.9526 | 0.4178 | 10.075 | 0.2226 | | IC | 0.55 | 16.1577 | 2.4221 | 26.2891 | 1.3259 | | IM | 1.02 | 26.1972 | 6.7583 | 37.9927 | 2.3224 | [5] Spot Market | Index | Change (%) | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index | 0.45 | | Stock Rise-Fall Ratio | 2.27 | | Two-Market Trading Volume (billion yuan) | 2341.402 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 64.17 | [7]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Ying (Investment Consultation Certificate No.: Z0016367) [2] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock index showed a volatile trend, pressured by weak August social financing and economic operation data. On the industry level, measures related to integrated circuits between China and the US led to an increase in the power equipment sector, and the solid-state battery concept represented by CATL strengthened. The electricity and new energy, as well as the automotive sectors, led the A-share market today. With fundamental data suppressing short - term market risk appetite, and the results of the China - US talks and the Fed's September FOMC adjustment pending, the stock market is expected to continue its trend of low - volume oscillation until the uncertainties within the week are resolved [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index contracted in volume with an overall volatile trend, and the large - cap index was relatively strong. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.24%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2435.41 billion yuan. Among index futures, IF rose with reduced volume, while the rest declined with reduced volume [3] Important Information - China's industrial added value above designated size in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 3.4%, and the retail growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment slowed to 14.3%. In August, the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities remained at 1% compared with the previous month, and the year - on - year decline of new housing prices in all tiers narrowed [4] Strategy Recommendation - A long straddle option strategy is recommended [6] Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.04 | - 0.25 | - 0.53 | - 0.44 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.7764 | 5.5348 | 13.7356 | 19.4389 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | - 1.0859 | - 0.9934 | - 3.8503 | - 4.6447 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.7459 | 9.8524 | 24.9632 | 35.6703 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | - 1.103 | - 0.1517 | - 1.8126 | - 1.5462 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.26 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.63 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.55 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 22773.85 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 2435.41 | [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of rapid price fluctuations in commodities, particularly gold, and how these fluctuations attract attention and lead to significant market reactions. It proposes a physical explanation for this behavior by exploring the hidden factor of price change rate and its impact on market dynamics [3][4][41]. Group 1: Price Volatility and Market Reactions - Rapid price movements in commodities, such as gold, generate significant public interest and commentary from various market participants [3][5]. - High price change rates are equivalent to high volatility, which tends to converge to a stable range over time [7][9]. - The article illustrates that when implied volatility spikes, it often leads to increased market activity, particularly in shorting volatility strategies [9][17]. Group 2: Shorting Volatility Strategies - One common method to short volatility is through straddles, which involve selling both a put and a call option at the same strike price [12][21]. - The effectiveness of shorting volatility is highlighted by the potential for profit when the underlying asset's price remains within a certain range [13][16]. - The article emphasizes that during periods of high volatility, traders can capitalize on the eventual return to lower volatility environments, thus profiting from the price differences [16][17]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies - The article discusses alternative strategies for shorting volatility, such as selling calls during price surges and selling puts during price drops, which allows traders to take advantage of market sentiment [23][27]. - It notes that these strategies carry a speculative nature, as they involve betting against prevailing market trends [28][29]. - The relationship between volatility and price movements is explored, indicating that volatility can influence price direction, particularly during rapid market movements [32][35]. Group 4: Implications for Trend Traders - The article warns trend traders to be cautious of extreme market movements, as rapid price changes can lead to temporary reversals due to the influx of arbitrage capital [37][40]. - It explains that understanding volatility can help traders anticipate market corrections following sharp price movements [40][41]. - The conclusion suggests that the alignment of volatility thresholds with market commentary can create a feedback loop, influencing price movements in unexpected ways [41][42].