Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, is experiencing significant growth in its half-year performance, with net profit expected to increase by 94.49% to 140.25% year-on-year, indicating a positive outlook for its annual performance and reflecting the gradual absorption of the negative impacts from centralized procurement [1][6]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is approximately 170 million to 210 million yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit forecasted at 180 million to 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.64% to 26.67% [1]. Innovation in Drug Development - The company has made significant breakthroughs in its three core innovative drug platforms targeting influenza, COVID-19, and metabolic diseases, positioning itself as a leader in the competitive pharmaceutical landscape [2][5]. - The launch of "Angladi" as the world's first targeted influenza treatment has been a pivotal moment, demonstrating a new paradigm in flu therapy and showing promising clinical results [3]. - "Lai Ru Te Wei," a novel single-drug treatment for COVID-19, has been recognized for its efficacy and safety, filling a critical gap in the domestic market for oral COVID-19 medications [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is accelerating its transition to innovative drug development, supported by a strategic shift in funding towards new drug research, particularly in influenza and diabetes [6]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical market is undergoing a transformation, with a clear trend towards globalization of innovative drugs, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical is positioned to benefit from this trend [7][8]. - The company’s traditional Chinese medicine segment remains a stable foundation for its overall performance, with significant revenue contributions expected despite short-term impacts from centralized procurement [7]. Future Outlook - The combination of innovative drug development and a solid foundation in traditional Chinese medicine is expected to drive the company's growth, with a focus on addressing public health challenges and enhancing its global presence [8].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 246,741.84 million, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY 29,915.71 million, and a net loss of CNY 26,031.27 million after excluding non-recurring gains [2][4] - The decline in performance was attributed to the impact of centralized procurement pricing on the company's core product, the Compound Thrombus-Resolving Series [2] - Non-recurring gains decreased the net profit attributable to shareholders by CNY 3,884.44 million due to litigation-related provisions [2] Asset Impairment - The total asset impairment loss for 2024 was CNY 54,668.07 million, reducing the net profit attributable to shareholders by CNY 48,409.79 million [5][7] - Major impairment factors included inventory write-downs of CNY 5,472.75 million and goodwill impairment of CNY 20,167.71 million related to subsidiaries [5][7] - The company also recognized an impairment loss of CNY 7,916.66 million on intangible assets [5][7] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 63,426.14 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.07% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8,261.18 million, a year-on-year increase of 61.06% [8] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains was CNY 7,843.48 million, reflecting an increase of 8.60% year-on-year [8] R&D Pipeline - The company has established a multi-mode R&D ecosystem focusing on metabolic and respiratory diseases [9] - The innovative drug ZSP1601 for treating metabolic dysfunction-related fatty liver disease has completed Phase Ib/IIa clinical trials, showing significant reductions in liver inflammation markers [9][14] - The oral antiviral drug, Lai Rui Te Wei (乐睿灵®), has been approved for conditional marketing and included in the national medical insurance directory [10] New Drug Developments - The influenza drug Angrawei (安睿威®) has shown positive results in Phase III clinical trials and is under review for market approval [20] - The GLP-1 receptor agonist RAY1225 has completed Phase II trials, demonstrating significant weight loss and glycemic control in participants [15][18] - RAY1225 is expected to be a bi-weekly administered treatment for type 2 diabetes and obesity, with ongoing Phase III trials [15][18]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of the company in 2024 showed a significant decline, with a revenue of 2.467 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 299 million yuan, a decrease of 213.63% compared to the previous year, primarily due to price reductions from centralized procurement and impairment losses [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue decline was largely attributed to the impact of centralized procurement on its core products, particularly the Compound Thrombus Tong series, which saw price reductions after being selected for national procurement [3][4]. - The traditional Chinese medicine segment accounted for over 50% of total revenue, with 2023 revenue at 1.391 billion yuan, down 14.86%, and 2024 revenue at 1.318 billion yuan, down 5.25% [3][4]. - The chemical drug segment also experienced a decline, with 2024 revenue of 900 million yuan, down 6.44% [4]. Impairment Losses - The company reported a total impairment loss of 547 million yuan, significantly impacting net profit, with 2024 losses primarily due to goodwill impairment related to subsidiaries [5][6]. - The goodwill from the acquisition of subsidiaries has been fully impaired, with the remaining balance at zero [6]. Innovation Drug Developments - The company established a subsidiary, Guangdong Zhongsheng Ruichuang Biotechnology Co., Ltd., to focus on innovative drug development, but faced challenges, including a failed IPO and subsequent stock buyback [7][8]. - The innovative drug, Lai Rui Te Wei, received conditional approval but has not yet translated into significant financial returns, with revenues of 57.34 million yuan in 2023 and 40.23 million yuan in 2024 [7][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the impact of centralized procurement will be largely absorbed by the second half of 2024, with expectations for a recovery in traditional business and innovative drug segments starting in 2025 [2][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 634 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1.07%, but a net profit increase of 61.06% year-on-year, indicating potential operational improvements [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 17.01 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company reported a loss in 2024 due to asset impairment provisions totaling 547 million CNY, but is expected to enter a phase of recovery in 2025 with the potential for innovative drug launches [2][3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 2.467 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.48% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -299 million CNY, a decline of 213.63% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 634 million CNY, a slight decrease of 1.07% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 61.06% to 83 million CNY [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.853 billion CNY, 3.431 billion CNY, and 4.146 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 302 million CNY, 460 million CNY, and 630 million CNY [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.36 CNY, 0.54 CNY, and 0.74 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31.6, 20.7, and 15.1 respectively [4][10]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 9.563 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of about 8.553 billion CNY [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a challenging performance in 2024 due to policy adjustments and increased market competition, but showed significant improvement in Q1 2025, indicating a potential for long-term value release [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.467 billion yuan and a non-GAAP net profit of -260 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 634 million yuan, maintaining year-on-year stability, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82.61 million yuan, a 61.06% increase, and a non-GAAP net profit of 78.43 million yuan, an 8.60% increase [1]. Market Dynamics - The company's core product, the compound thrombus-dissolving series, faced price reductions due to centralized procurement policies, impacting short-term performance but potentially expanding market share in the long run [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the market for its core products, aiming to achieve a "volume for price" strategy [1]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has made provisions for goodwill impairment due to cautious principles, which do not reflect the true operational status of its core business [2]. - The company is strategically pausing some R&D investments to focus on more promising projects in metabolic and respiratory diseases, which may enhance long-term growth [2][4]. R&D and Innovation - The company has established a multi-layered R&D system focusing on traditional Chinese medicine, high-end generic drugs, and innovative drugs, which is crucial for competitive differentiation [3][4]. - The RAY1225 project, targeting type 2 diabetes and obesity, showcases the company's unique dual-target mechanism, enhancing its market competitiveness [3]. - The company has consistently invested over 10% of its revenue in R&D for the past three years, reflecting its commitment to innovation [4]. Regulatory Environment - Recent government policies encourage pharmaceutical companies to increase R&D investments, providing tax incentives and subsidies, which will benefit the company's innovative drug development [4][5].