医药生物 2025 年 11 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《MNC 全面布局 FGF21 靶点，关注 国内投资机会—行业周报》-2025.11.16 《流感高发，关注相关投资机会—行 业周报》-2025.11.9 《集采+医保谈判稳步推进，关注相关 投资机会—行业周报》-2025.11.2 减肥赛道开启"长效革命" ，MNC 加速布局高价值平台 ——行业周报 | 余汝意（分析师） | 汪晋（分析师） | 石启正（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | wangjin3@kysec.cn | shiqizheng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790525060003 | 证书编号：S0790125020004 | 以辉瑞、礼来、诺和诺德为代表的 MNC 正积极布局超长效管线与技术平台 11 月 13 日，辉瑞宣布已成功完成对 Mets ...

Group 1: Northern Huachuang (002371) - The company achieved a revenue of 27.301 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.130 billion yuan, up 14.83% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 11.160 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.63%, with a net profit of 1.922 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.60% [5][6] - The company focuses on the semiconductor equipment sector, with over 80% of its revenue coming from this area, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry and the expansion of downstream wafer fabs [6][7] - Inventory increased significantly to 30.199 billion yuan, up 30.01% year-on-year, indicating proactive stocking to meet strong market demand and to build a localized, secure supply chain [7] - R&D expenses reached 3.285 billion yuan, a 48.40% increase year-on-year, with a R&D expense ratio of 12.03%, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and product competitiveness [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of downstream wafer fab capacities and the domestic substitution trend, with projected revenues of 39.283 billion yuan, 49.665 billion yuan, and 61.156 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] Group 2: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) - The company reported a revenue of 1.889 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 1.01% year-on-year, but a net profit of 251 million yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [11][12] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 589 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.35%, with a net profit of 63 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.10% [11] - The R&D pipeline is progressing well, with key products like Anglavi tablets and RAY1225 showing promising clinical advancements, indicating strong potential for market expansion [12] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.841 billion yuan, 3.336 billion yuan, and 3.917 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 307 million yuan, 366 million yuan, and 481 million yuan [13]

Group 1: Northern Huachuang (002371) - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 27.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.97%, and a net profit of 5.130 billion yuan, up 14.83% year-on-year [6][7] - The company's focus on the semiconductor equipment sector has led to a comprehensive product coverage in key processes such as etching and thin film deposition, resulting in a steady increase in market share [7][8] - Inventory levels increased significantly to 30.199 billion yuan, up 30.01% year-on-year, indicating proactive stocking to meet strong downstream demand and enhance supply chain resilience [8] - R&D expenses reached 3.285 billion yuan, a 48.40% increase year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and technology advancement [9] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 39.283 billion yuan, 49.665 billion yuan, and 61.156 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 7.530 billion yuan, 9.672 billion yuan, and 11.860 billion yuan [10] Group 2: Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) - The company reported stable revenue growth with total revenue of 1.889 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 1.01% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 68.40% to 251 million yuan [17][18] - The R&D pipeline is progressing well, with key products like Anglavi tablets gaining market traction and expected to expand further through upcoming insurance negotiations [18] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.841 billion yuan, 3.336 billion yuan, and 3.917 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 307 million yuan, 366 million yuan, and 481 million yuan [19] Group 3: Pumen Technology (688389) - The company experienced a revenue decline of 10.96% in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 763 million yuan, primarily due to price reductions in domestic IVD projects [21][22] - International business showed significant growth, with overseas revenue reaching 294 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [22] - The company is actively enhancing its international market operations and product registrations, anticipating further growth in overseas markets [23] Group 4: Changshu Bank (601128) - The bank reported a revenue of 9.052 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 8.15% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 12.82% to 3.357 billion yuan [25][26] - The bank's non-interest income showed strong growth, driven by investment income and commission fees, reflecting a robust performance in the financial market [29][31] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 462.95% [25][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth and significant improvement in profitability, with a 68.40% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - The research and development pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with three core products progressing well, including the innovative flu drug, which has shown strong efficacy against resistant strains [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 28.41 billion, 33.36 billion, and 39.17 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.07 billion, 3.66 billion, and 4.81 billion [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.889 billion (down 1.01% year-on-year) and a net profit of 251 million (up 68.40% year-on-year) [6] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 56.80%, and the net profit margin was 13.00% [6] - The company expects to recover from the impact of centralized procurement, leading to a stable recovery in its traditional Chinese medicine business [6] Research and Development - The flu drug, Angladiwe Tablets, has been approved and is being commercialized, with a pricing strategy of 320 yuan per treatment [6] - RAY1225, a dual-target GLP-1/GIP drug, is progressing well in clinical trials, with significant advantages over competitors [6] - ZSP1601, a unique PDE inhibitor, is expected to meet unmet clinical needs in the MASH field, with data readout anticipated in Q4 2025 [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.41 billion, 33.36 billion, and 39.17 billion respectively, with net profits of 3.07 billion, 3.66 billion, and 4.81 billion [6] - The expected EPS for the same years are 0.36, 0.43, and 0.57, with corresponding P/E ratios of 55.94, 46.95, and 35.64 [6]

Group 1 - The biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) has seen a 3.23% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a turnover of 6.1% and a transaction volume of 1.93 billion yuan [3] - The underlying index, the National Certificate Biopharmaceutical Index (399441), rose by 3.02%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as Kangtai Biological (300601) up 8.40%, Iwubio (300357) up 8.02%, and WuXi AppTec (603259) up 6.36% [3] - Over the past week, the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) has averaged daily transactions of 1.54 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - As of August 22, the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) has seen a scale increase of 97.48 million yuan over the past two weeks, leading among comparable funds [3] - The ETF has attracted a total of 19.77 million yuan in inflows over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The latest margin buying amount for the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) reached 17.98 million yuan, with a margin balance of 101 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) has achieved a net value increase of 37.96% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - China's pharmaceutical industry ranks second globally, with approximately 30% of innovative drugs under research [4] - The recent approval of 387 children's drugs and 147 rare disease drugs since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan has effectively met the medication needs of key populations [4] Group 4 - The global GLP-1 market is expanding, presenting strategic opportunities for Chinese companies, with notable developments in drug pricing and clinical research [4] - Domestic companies like Songli Pharmaceutical are advancing their oral small molecule GLP-1 (ASC30) into clinical trials in the U.S., showing promising results in weight loss [4] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's HRS9531 has achieved positive results in phase III clinical trials, and more clinical data and commercial collaborations are expected to emerge [5] Group 5 - The biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) and its linked funds are the largest and most liquid products in their category, with the highest year-to-date growth [5] - The Tianhong Innovation Drug ETF (517380) is the only product tracking the Hang Seng and Shanghai-Hong Kong Innovation Drug Select 50 Index, providing comprehensive coverage of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5]

Group 1 - The report from Huaxin Securities indicates a significant increase in both the number and amount of transactions in the pharmaceutical sector in the first half of 2025, with global transaction numbers reaching 456, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and total upfront payments amounting to $11.8 billion, a staggering increase of 136% [1] - Chinese transactions contributed nearly 50% of the total transaction amount and over 30% of the transaction numbers, highlighting the growing recognition of Chinese companies in the global innovative drug market [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical due to their potential in the expanding market [1] Group 2 - The global GLP-1 market is experiencing stable expansion, with sales exceeding $33.6 billion in the first half of the year and expected to surpass $60 billion for the entire year [2] - Domestic companies like Goli Pharma are advancing their oral small molecule GLP-1 (ASC30) into clinical trials in the U.S., showing promising results in weight loss [2] - More clinical data and commercial collaborations are anticipated as companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical progress in their clinical trials [2] Group 3 - Multiple Chinese studies have been selected for major international conferences, indicating that Chinese innovative drug companies maintain a leading position in research and development, particularly in ADC and bispecific antibodies [3] Group 4 - The CXO industry is expected to gradually recover following a supply-side reshuffle, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec reporting a 24.2% year-on-year increase in revenue from continuing operations [4] - The order trend for the CXO industry is showing significant improvement, with a 37.2% year-on-year increase in orders, suggesting a broader recovery in the industry [4] Group 5 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has initiated the work on the 2025 medical insurance drug catalog and commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, with 121 out of 141 drug names passing the preliminary review [5] - The focus on orphan drugs and breakthrough treatment varieties is evident, as these categories are among those that have passed the review process [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" [4] Core Insights - Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has received FDA approval for a new indication for the treatment of Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASH), which is expected to increase the sales scale of GLP-1 drugs beyond diabetes and weight loss indications [21][24] - The report highlights the significant market potential for GLP-1 drugs and the deep positioning of domestic companies in this field, particularly regarding overseas licensing opportunities for domestic GLP-1 products [25] Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From August 11 to August 17, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were: Beihai Kangcheng (+35.6%), Basilea Pharmaceutica (+32.6%), Deqi Pharmaceuticals (+30.2%), Heyu Biotech (+30.1%), and Gilead Sciences (+29.7%). The top five losers were: Boan Biologics (-11.6%), Laika Pharmaceuticals (-3.9%), Ailis (-3.2%), Nossland (-1.2%), and CanSino Biologics (-1.1%) [16][18] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on domestic GLP-1 products for overseas licensing, including: 1. RAY1225 from Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical for GLP-1/GIP dual weekly administration 2. ASC30 from Gilead Sciences for oral GLP-1 small molecules 3. BGM0504 from Borui Pharmaceuticals and ZX2021 from Kangyuan Pharmaceuticals for multi-target GLP-1 receptor agonists 4. UBT251 from Lianfa Pharmaceuticals and HS-10535 from Hansoh Pharmaceutical for already licensed MNC products [20][25] Key Analysis of the New Drug Industry - The approval of semaglutide for MASH marks it as the first GLP-1 therapy approved for this condition, expanding treatment options for patients and potentially increasing market size [21][24] New Drug Application Approvals and Acceptances - This week, there were 6 new drug applications accepted, including semaglutide injection from Huisheng Biopharmaceutical and others [29][31] Clinical Application Approvals and Acceptances - This week, 18 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 39 new drug clinical applications were accepted [32][35]

Group 1 - Xinda Biologics announced the official launch of its dual receptor agonist, Masitide, for weight management, which is the first GCG/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist approved for long-term weight control in adults in China [1] - Clinical data shows that Masitide can achieve a weight reduction of 21%, over 80% reduction in liver fat content, and significant improvements in cardiovascular and metabolic indicators [1] - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market has seen significant growth, with Novo Nordisk's semaglutide generating $16.5 billion in revenue and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide generating $14.7 billion in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The trend in GLP-1 weight loss drug development is shifting towards multi-target, long-acting, and oral formulations, with many domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies actively participating [2] - The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has been fueled by endorsements from high-profile individuals, leading to increased public interest and demand for these medications [3] - The market for GLP-1 drugs in China is estimated to be between 40 billion to 50 billion yuan, with significant potential for generic drugs as original patents expire [5] Group 3 - The competitive landscape for GLP-1 weight loss drugs is evolving, with various products entering the market, and companies need to adapt their commercialization strategies to succeed [6][9] - Regulatory requirements for GLP-1 products in China are stringent, necessitating large-scale clinical trials, which poses challenges for many companies [7] - Partnerships and business development (BD) opportunities are emerging as companies seek to expand their market presence internationally, with notable agreements already in place [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The global pharmaceutical transaction volume reached 456 deals in the first half of 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, with total upfront payments soaring to $11.8 billion, up 136% year-on-year, and total transaction value hitting $130.4 billion, a 58% increase year-on-year. Chinese companies contributed nearly 50% of the total transaction value and over 30% of the transaction volume, indicating a growing recognition of their value in global innovative drugs [3] - The report highlights a strategic opportunity for Chinese companies in the weight loss sector, with significant clinical data and collaborations emerging. For instance, the oral GLP-1 molecule Orforglipron showed a weight reduction of 11% compared to the placebo group, providing a competitive edge for domestic firms [4] - Chinese innovative drug companies are leading breakthroughs in CAR-T technology, with significant sales figures reported. For example, the collaboration between Legend Biotech and Johnson & Johnson for Carvykti is expected to exceed $2 billion in annual sales [5] - The CXO industry is anticipated to gradually recover, with a notable increase in license-out transactions and funding for biotech companies, indicating a positive trend in order recovery [6] - The report emphasizes the continuous iteration and updates in TCE technology, with promising clinical data emerging from various trials, showcasing the potential for significant advancements in the field [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.07 percentage points in the last week, ranking 31st among 31 primary industry indices [19] - In the past month, the pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 8.23 percentage points, ranking 3rd among the primary industry indices [25] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's index has a current PE (TTM) of 38.77, above the 5-year historical average of 31.9 [45] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting trends in supply and demand, as well as the growth of specific sectors such as blood products and inhalation formulations [51] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies from the National Healthcare Security Administration aim to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including increased funding and support for clinical applications [54] - Notable industry news includes the approval of innovative treatments by major pharmaceutical companies, indicating a robust pipeline and ongoing advancements in the sector [56]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical closed at 19.73 yuan on August 7, 2025, down 1.60% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 869 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.74%, and the total market capitalization reached 16.769 billion yuan [1] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical operates in the traditional Chinese medicine industry, focusing on drug research, production, and sales, with products spanning traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, and biological drugs [1] Group 2 - The company announced on its interactive platform that it will advance the RAY1225 project for the treatment of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease, with progress dependent on research and development strategies [1] - On August 7, the net outflow of main funds was 75.0972 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 37.0842 million yuan over the past five days [1]